scholarly journals Growth And Oil Futures Prices In Developing Countries

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Salah Abosedra ◽  
Sajal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Short Run

This paper examines cointegration and causality between oil prices and economic growth for the oil importing developing countries of Turkey, India, Pakistan, The Philippines and Korea. The study finds the absence of cointegrating relationship between oil prices and economic activity but the existence of unidirectional short-run causality running from oil prices to economic growths for The Philippines and Pakistan. Unidirectional causality is also found to exist from six and nine month futures prices to economic growth for India and Turkey in a bivariate vector autoregression framework. The study fails to establish causal relationship between oil prices and economic growth for Korea, while for India and Turkey, non-causality has been established between oil spot price and economic growth. Hence, our results may suggest that oil futures markets will have more of a role to play in the economy as these markets mature and or as oil prices continue to increase.

The global influence of oil futures-prices on Dow Jones Islamic stock indexes

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 523-549 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arfaoui Mongi
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Global Influence

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the global influence of crude and refined oil futures prices on Dow Jones Islamic equity indices (DJIMI) during the recent global financial crisis under structural breaks in the conditional volatility of oil futures prices. Design/methodology/approach It aims at exploring the long-run and the short-run elasticity and causal relationships using an ARDL bound testing approach and a vector error correction model. Findings The main findings confirm the presence of long-run relationship for DJIM emerging markets index compared to other global and sub-regional developed indexes. Speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium is moderate and the effect of structural breaks, produced from nonlinear volatility model with long memory (LM), is overall not pronounced for that relationship. Short-run causality is bi-directional but long-run Granger causality does not run from refined oil to the DJIMI and crude oil. Research limitations/implications The paper demonstrates the implicit extent of international financial integration of Islamic stock markets in light of the global influence of oil prices. Practical implications The findings offer some highlights to researchers, portfolio managers and policymakers. Originality/value The paper gives an answer to an identified need to test the position of Islamic equity markets as booming Islamic investment and socially responsible investment areas to the global influence of the new soaring path of oil markets. It uses as well bounds testing approach and tests weak and strong causalities under structural breaks. It considers as well LM behavior in oil prices along with the asymmetry property in oil prices.

Crude Oil Volatility Transmission Across Food Commodity Markets: A Multivariate BEKK-GARCH Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 097265272092762
Author(s):  
M. Thenmozhi ◽  
Shipra Maurya
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Crude Oil Futures

This study examines the time-varying price risk transmission in the nexus between crude oil and agricultural commodity prices in the context of non-grain-based biofuel producing country. Analysis of the short- and long-run dynamics of volatility in both spot and futures markets of maize, soybean and wheat and crude oil prices using the multivariate BEKK-GARCH model, indicate volatility spillover from wheat futures to crude oil futures in the short run and from crude oil futures to futures markets of maize, soybean and wheat in the long run. The spot market linkage of selected commodities is weaker compared to futures market, wherein maize spot volatility transmits to crude oil spot market in the longer period and no spillover between crude oil-food spot market is observed in the short run. The hedge ratios indicate that a dynamic hedging strategy is crucial for efficient risk management and the portfolio weights in futures market are more than the spot market. The results reveal that cross-market volatility spillover is more evident in the futures market, while own past conditional volatility is more significant in spot price discovery and risk transmission is evident among food commodities futures markets. JEL Codes: G13, G14, Q11, Q18, Q02

scholarly journals Dynamic Causal Relationships among GDP, Exports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Developing Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Mehrara ◽  
Amin Haghnejad ◽  
Jalal Dehnavi ◽  
Fereshteh Jandaghi Meybodi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Using panel techniques, this paper estimates the causality among economic growth, exports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows for developing countries over the period of 1980 to 2008. The study indicates that; firstly, there is strong evidence of bidirectional causality between economic growth and FDI inflows. Secondly, the exports-led growth hypothesis is supported by the finding of unidirectional causality running from exports to economic growth in both the short-run and the long-run. Thirdly, export is not Granger caused by economic growth and FDI inflow in either the short run or the long run. On the basis of the obtained results, it is recommended that outward-oriented strategies and policies of attracting FDI be pursued by developing countries to achieve higher rates of economic growth. On the other hand, the countries can increase FDI inflows by stimulating their economic growth.

scholarly journals Inflation and Unemployment Trade-off: Is Phillips Curve True for African Developing Countries? Evidence from Sudan

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omer Allagabo Omer Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Wage Inflation ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between wage inflation and unemployment (Phillips Curve) is controversial in economic thought, and the controversy is centered around whether there is always a trade-off or not. If this relationship is negative it is called The short-run Fillips Curve. However, in the long run, this relationship may probable not exist. The matter of how inflation and unemployment influence economic growth, is debatably among macroeconomic policymakers. This study examines the behavior of the Phillips Curve in Sudan and its effect on economic growth.

Macroeconomic Factors in Oil Futures Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (9) ◽  
pp. 4407-4421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davidson Heath
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Productivity Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Crude Oil Futures ◽  
Future Consumption ◽  
New Evidence

This paper documents new evidence against perfect risk spanning in crude oil futures, and develops an affine futures pricing model that allows for unspanned macroeconomic factors. Compared to previous estimates, the oil spot premium is more volatile and strongly procyclical, which suggests that previous models miss the majority of variation in oil risk premiums. The estimates reveal a dynamic two-way relationship between oil futures and economic activity: productivity shocks are associated with higher oil prices, while oil price shocks affect economic activity by lowering future consumption spending. Unspanned macro factors also affect the valuation of real options. This paper was accepted by Karl Diether, finance.

scholarly journals Effect of Institutional Quality and Wealth from Oil Revenue on Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Developing Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adewale Samuel Hassan ◽  
Daniel Francois Meyer ◽  
Sebastian Kot
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Linear Interaction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Wealth

This article investigates the role of institutional quality in the oil wealth–economic growth nexus for 35 oil-exporting developing countries between 1984 and 2016. To achieve this objective, an empirical model was employed with linear interaction between oil wealth and institutional quality, and estimated by means of panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) with a dynamic fixed effect estimator. From the results, a contingent effect of oil wealth on economic growth, both in the long run and in the short run, was established. Specifically, institutional quality was found to mitigate the negative effect of oil wealth on economic growth in the long run, while in the short run, institutional quality was found to enhance the positive effect of oil wealth on economic growth. Furthermore, the results provide the threshold levels of institutional quality, beyond which oil wealth enhances economic growth, both in the long run and in the short run, for the sampled countries. These results suggest that in order for oil-exporting developing countries to benefit from an increase in oil wealth, they must adopt appropriate policy measures to improve their levels of institutional quality and embed their entire oil wealth-generating mechanism in a sound institutional framework. Also of importance is that governments must ensure sustainable development through the benefits of wealth from oil.

scholarly journals Informality and Development

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 109-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael La Porta ◽  
Andrei Shleifer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Organizational Form ◽  
Formal Sector ◽  
Dual Models

In developing countries, informal firms account for up to half of economic activity. They provide livelihood for billions of people. Yet their role in economic development remains controversial with some viewing informality as pent-up potential and others viewing informality as a parasitic organizational form that hinders economic growth. In this paper, we assess these perspectives. We argue that the evidence is most consistent with dual models, in which informality arises out of poverty and the informal and formal sectors are very different. It seems that informal firms have low productivity and produce low-quality products; and, consequently, they do not pose a threat to the formal firms. Economic growth comes from the formal sector, that is, from firms run by educated entrepreneurs and exhibiting much higher levels of productivity. The expansion of the formal sector leads to the decline of the informal sector in relative and eventually absolute terms. A few informal firms convert to formality, but more generally they disappear because they cannot compete with the much more-productive formal firms.

Adaptive Bands Z-Test-Statistics in Futures Markets: A New Technical Analysis Indicator

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 19-47
Author(s):  
Mohd Rizal Palil
Keyword(s):  
Soybean Oil ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Test Statistics ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Trading Rules

This paper presents a study of technical analysis trading rules that generate abnormal returns for futures prices.  It reports abnormal returns above that of the passive buy-and-hold policy for FKLI, FCPO, Soybean Oil Futures, Soybean Futures and Corn Futures for year 2008 tested. 

scholarly journals R&D Expenditure R&D Expenditure as an Accelerator of Economic Growth with Special Reference to Developing Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tariq Mahmood Ali ◽  
Adiqa Kausar Kiani ◽  
Tariq Bashir ◽  
Talah Numan Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
D Investment

Purpose: In this network age, among the other factors which increase economic growth, the R&D activities, a pivotal and effective factor, carried out by a country. The present study attempts to investigate the empirical R&D expenditure-economic growth nexus in developing and developed economies, and also provides useful insight about how R&D investment works to enhance the economic growth of a country. Design/Methodology/Approach: In this regard, 21 years data of top 100 economies of the world from 1995 to 2015 has been utilized. The Panel ARD Model approach has been preferred to explore the impact of R&D investment on economic growth (GDP). For construction of the estimation model, five different variables are used. In order to accomplish the results, along with analysing the data of 100 countries a whole, analysis has also been made by dividing countries into different categories and groups. Overall, the Panel ARDL test has been performed on nine different groups of countries. Findings: The results reveal that, ceteris paribus, there is a strong positive association between R&D expenditure and economic growth (GDP) in the long-run; 1% increase in GERD leads to 0.07% increase in GDP. However, the impact in the developing countries (0.043%) is lower compared to the developed OECD countries (0.27%). No impact of the R&D expenditure on economic growth is observed in the short-run. Implications/Originality/Value: The study presents some thought-provoking ideas, policy recommendations and implications for the policy makers, planners and researchers, especially in the context of developing economies.  

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