The global influence of oil futures-prices on Dow Jones Islamic stock indexes

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 523-549 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arfaoui Mongi
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Global Influence

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the global influence of crude and refined oil futures prices on Dow Jones Islamic equity indices (DJIMI) during the recent global financial crisis under structural breaks in the conditional volatility of oil futures prices. Design/methodology/approach It aims at exploring the long-run and the short-run elasticity and causal relationships using an ARDL bound testing approach and a vector error correction model. Findings The main findings confirm the presence of long-run relationship for DJIM emerging markets index compared to other global and sub-regional developed indexes. Speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium is moderate and the effect of structural breaks, produced from nonlinear volatility model with long memory (LM), is overall not pronounced for that relationship. Short-run causality is bi-directional but long-run Granger causality does not run from refined oil to the DJIMI and crude oil. Research limitations/implications The paper demonstrates the implicit extent of international financial integration of Islamic stock markets in light of the global influence of oil prices. Practical implications The findings offer some highlights to researchers, portfolio managers and policymakers. Originality/value The paper gives an answer to an identified need to test the position of Islamic equity markets as booming Islamic investment and socially responsible investment areas to the global influence of the new soaring path of oil markets. It uses as well bounds testing approach and tests weak and strong causalities under structural breaks. It considers as well LM behavior in oil prices along with the asymmetry property in oil prices.

scholarly journals Growth And Oil Futures Prices In Developing Countries

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Salah Abosedra ◽  
Sajal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Short Run

This paper examines cointegration and causality between oil prices and economic growth for the oil importing developing countries of Turkey, India, Pakistan, The Philippines and Korea. The study finds the absence of cointegrating relationship between oil prices and economic activity but the existence of unidirectional short-run causality running from oil prices to economic growths for The Philippines and Pakistan. Unidirectional causality is also found to exist from six and nine month futures prices to economic growth for India and Turkey in a bivariate vector autoregression framework. The study fails to establish causal relationship between oil prices and economic growth for Korea, while for India and Turkey, non-causality has been established between oil spot price and economic growth. Hence, our results may suggest that oil futures markets will have more of a role to play in the economy as these markets mature and or as oil prices continue to increase.

Does innovation matter for total factor productivity growth in India? Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1311-1329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seenaiah Kale ◽  
Badri Narayan Rath
Keyword(s):  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Growth Accounting ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tfp Growth ◽  
Innovation Activities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Testing Approach

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether innovation plays a significant role in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth in India at an aggregate level. Design/methodology/approach This study first estimates the TFP growth using a growth accounting framework. In the second stage, the authors examine the long-run and short-run impact of innovation on TFP growth using the ARDL bound testing approach. Findings The results indicate a cointegrating relationship between innovation and TFP growth. Further, coefficients of long-run elasticity show that the increase in overall innovation activities improves the TFP growth. Other factors such as human capital, financial development and FDI do not affect the TFP growth in the long run; however, these variables significantly affect the productivity growth in the short run. Practical implications Findings of the study suggest that the innovation-friendly policies such as the strengthening of intellectual property rights, R&D subsidies and innovation rebates may spur the productivity growth, and hence, good growth and prosperity as well. Originality/value Having devoted a large volume of literature to address the sources of economic growth, the present study focuses on the determinants of TFP growth in India which may fall in similar category but differ in several angles: First, the authors construct a TFP index using a growth accounting framework. Second, the authors construct an innovation index using principal component analysis which is new to the literature and also an innovation index. Third, given the scanty innovation activities in low developed countries like India and its widening role in the contemporary literature, special emphasis will be given to this aspect. Finally, the effect of the examined relationship on TFP growth in the long run and short run provides several implications for policy purpose to the developing nations like India.

An empirical study on the dynamic relationship between oil prices and Indian stock market

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarak Nath Sahu ◽  
Kalpataru Bandopadhyay ◽  
Debasish Mondal
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose – This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationships between oil price shocks and Indian stock market. Design/methodology/approach – The study used daily data for the period starting from January 2001 to March 2013. In this study, Johansen's cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), Granger causality test, impulse response functions (IRFs) and variance decompositions (VDCs) test have been applied to exhibit the long-run and short-run relationship between them. Findings – The cointegration result indicates the existence of long-term relationship. Further, the error correction term of VECM shows a long-run causality moves from Indian stock market to oil price but not the vice versa. The results of the Granger causality test under the VECM framework confirm that no short-run causality between the variables exists. The VDCs analysis revealed that the Indian stock markets and crude oil prices are strongly exogenous. Finally, from the IRFs, analysis revealed that a positive shock in oil price has a small but persistence and growing positive impact on Indian stock markets in short run. Originality/value – The study would enhance the understandings of the interaction between oil price volatilities and emerging stock market performances. Further, the study would enable foreign investors who are interested in Indian stock market helps in understanding the conditional relationship between the variables.

Market efficiency in Indian soybean futures markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 520-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thiagu Ranganathan ◽  
Usha Ananthakumar
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Futures Contract ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Commodity Derivatives

Purpose – The National commodity exchanges were established in India in the year 2003-2004 to perform the functions of price discovery and price risk management in the economy. The derivatives market can perform these functions properly only if they are efficient and unbiased. So, there is a need to properly evaluate these aspects of the Indian commodity derivatives market. The purpose of this paper is to test the market efficiency and unbiasedness of the Indian soybean futures markets. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses cointegration and a QARCH-M-ECM-based framework to test the market efficiency and unbiasedness in the soybean futures contract traded in the National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). The cointegration test is used to test the long-run unbiasedness and market efficiency of the contract, while the QARCH-M-ECM model is used to test the short-run market efficiency and unbiasedness of the contract by allowing for a time-varying risk premium. The price data is also tested for presence of structural breaks using a Zivot and Andrews unit root test. Findings – The soybean contract is unbiased in the long run, but there are short-run market inefficiencies and also a presence of a time-varying risk premium. Though the weak form of market efficiency is rejected in the short run, the semi-strong market efficiency is not rejected based on the forecasts. Originality/value – This is the first paper to consider time-varying risk premium while performing the tests of market efficiency and unbiasedness on Indian commodity markets.

Fossil fuel, industrial growth and inward FDI impact on CO2 emissions in Vietnam: testing the EKC hypothesis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sami Ullah ◽  
Muhammad Nadeem ◽  
Kishwar Ali ◽  
Qaiser Abbas
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Ekc Hypothesis ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Fossil Fuel Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors investigate that the increasing level of fossil fuel combustion in the industrial sector has been considered the prime cause for the emissions of greenhouse gas. Meanwhile, the research focusing on the impact of fossil fuel consumption on the emission of CO2 is limited for the developing countries containing Vietnam. This study applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach with structural breaks presence, and the Bayer–Hanck combined cointegration method to observe the rationality of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the dynamic relationship between the industrialization and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in Vietnam, capturing the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and the fossil fuel consumption over the period of 1975–2019. The outcomes revealed the confirmation of cointegration among the variables and both short and long-run regression parameters indicated the evidence for the presence of a U-shaped association between the level of industrial growth and CO2 emission that is further confirmed by employing the Lind and Mehlum U-test for robustness purpose. The results of Granger causality discovered a unidirectional causality from FDI and fossil fuel consumption to CO2 emission in the short run. For the policy points, this study suggests the use of efficient and low carbon-emitting technologies.Design/methodology/approachIn order to test for consistency and robustness of the cointegration analysis, this study also applied the ARDL bound testing method to find out long-run association among variables with the existence of the structural break in the dataset. The ARDL method was preferred to other traditional cointegration models; because of the smaller dataset, the results obtained from the ARDL method are efficient and consistent and equally appropriate for I(1) and I(0) variables.FindingsThe short-run and long-run causal associations among variables have been observed by employing the error correction term (ECT) augmented Granger-causality test that revealed the presence of the long-run causality among variables only when the CO2 emission is employed as a dependent variable. The outcomes for short-run causality indicated the presence of unidirectional causality between consumption of fossil fuel and CO2 emission, where the fossil fuel consumptions Granger-cause CO2 emission. Industrial growth has also been found to have an impact on fossil fuel consumptions, however not the opposite. This advocates that the policies aimed at reducing the fossil fuel consumptions would not be harmful to industrial growth as other energy efficient and cleaner technology could be implemented by the firms to substitute the fossil fuel usage.Originality/valueThe study explored the dynamic relationship among FDI, consumption of fossil fuel, industrial growth and the CO2 emission in Vietnam for the time period 1975–2019. The newly established Bayer–Hanck joint cointegration method and the ARDL bound testing were employed by taking into account the structural breaks in the dataset.

scholarly journals The relationship between self-employment and unemployment in the long-run

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 358-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Saridakis ◽  
Miguel Angel Mendoza ◽  
Rebeca I. Muñoz Torres ◽  
Jane Glover
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – Although a lot of research has been done on the link between self-employment and unemployment, often focusing on the short-run of the relationship, the long-run association between the two variables has not received adequate attention. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper the authors examine the long-run relationship between self-employment and unemployment using panel cointegration methods allowing for structural breaks and covering a wide range of European OECD countries using the COMPENDIA data set over the period 1990-2011. Findings – The findings indicate that a long-run relationship between self-employment and unemployment exist in the panel, but the cointegrating coefficients are unstable. Originality/value – The estimates finds positive and statistically significant long-run association between self-employment and unemployment exists for more than 50 per cent of the countries included in the sample after the break. For the rest of the countries the authors find either negative or statistically insignificant association.

Does credit boost agricultural performance? Evidence from Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 1203-1221
Author(s):  
Nguyen Tuan Anh ◽  
Christopher Gan ◽  
Dao Le Trang Anh
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Agricultural Credit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Agricultural Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

PurposeThis study investigates the short-run and long-run impacts of agricultural credit on Vietnam's agricultural GDP over the period 2004:Q4–2016:Q4, with the incorporation of agricultural labor, public investment and rainfall as important determinants of agricultural GDP.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies the indicator saturation (IS) break tests and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test with structural breaks to examine the credit–agricultural performance nexus. The causal relationships among variables are explored through the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test.FindingsThe results indicate that agricultural credit positively influences agricultural GDP in both the short-run and long-run. A unidirectional causal relationship running from credit to agricultural GDP is confirmed. The results also discover the positive and significant effects of labor and rainfall on agricultural GDP in the long-run.Practical implicationsThe results imply that the government should focus on expanding agricultural credit as well as enhancing the efficiency of agricultural credit. Furthermore, formal credit institutions should be encouraged to work closely with farmers and agricultural enterprises to offer flexible lending periods and amounts to meet the real situation of agricultural production.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine the credit–agricultural performance relationship at the macro-level in Vietnam. Based on the empirical results, the study provides crucial implications for policymakers to optimize the effectiveness of agricultural credit and enhance nationwide agricultural performance.

A dynamic relationship between crude oil price and Indian equity market: an empirical study with special reference to Indian benchmark index Sensex

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikhil Yadav ◽  
Priyanka Tandon ◽  
Ravindra Tripathi ◽  
Rajesh Kumar Shastri
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the movement of Sensex for the period of 2000–2018.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses the augmented Dickey–Fuller test for the presence of unit root, Johansen cointegration test for estimating the cointegration among the variables. Further, in the case of no cointegration found, the study employed the vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate the long-run relationship and the Granger causality/Wald test for short-run relationship. The study also conducted tests for the prerequisites of the model: serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and normality of data.FindingsThe study found that both the variables, crude oil prices and Sensex are integrated of order 1, that is, I (1), and there is no cointegration between them. Further, the results proliferated from the VAR model unfold the marked effect of previous month crude oil prices (lag 1) on the movement of Indian stock market represented by Sensex considered as the benchmark index. Furthermore, VAR–Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests results indicated that there is a causal relationship between the crude oil prices and Sensex under the VAR environment. The model does not have any serial correlation and heteroskedasticity indicating toward the unbiased and robust estimates.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is conducted till the year 2018, and data for the present period (post-2018) is excluded due to ongoing trade issues between the USA and oil-exporting countries such as Iran. The current COVID-19 outbreak has also put serious issues. Due to limited time and availability of standardized data, researchers have considered Sensex as equity index only, but for more generalized research outcome few other equity indexes could have been taken for study.Originality/valueThe study is completely original in nature and is an extensive study of the relationship between the crude oil price and Indian stock market with reference to causality between the variables.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

scholarly journals The economic market outcomes and income distribution when capital is not homogeneous

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-56
Author(s):  
Ahmet Özçam
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Problem ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Economic Market ◽  
Constant Elasticity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose An aggregate production function has been used in macroeconomic analysis for a long time, even though it seems that it is conceptually confusing and problematic. The purpose of this paper is to argue that the measurement problem related to the heterogenous capital input that exists in macroeconomics is also relevant to microeconomic market situations. Design/methodology/approach The author constructed a microeconomic market model to address both the problems of the measurement of the physical capital and of substitutability between labor and capital in the short run using two types of technologies: labor neutral and labor reducing. The author proposed that labor and physical capital inputs are complementary in the short run and can become substitutes only in the long run when the technology advances. Findings The author found that even if the technology improves at a fast rate over time, there are then diminishing returns of profits to technology and an upper limit to profits. Moreover, the author showed that under the labor-reducing technology, labor class earns more initially as technology improves, but their incomes start declining after some threshold level of passage of time. Originality/value The author cautioned the applied researcher that the estimated labor and capital coefficients of generalized Cobb–Douglas and constant elasticity of substitution of types of production functions could not be interpreted as partial elasticities of labor and capital if in reality the data come from fixed-proportions types of processes.

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