ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY OF PIONEER SPECIES FOR SECONDARY FOREST RESTORATION IN BENIN IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

In this study, species distribution model- ling (SDM) was applied to the manage- ment of secondary forests in Benin. This study aims at identifying suitable areas where the use of candidate pioneer spe- cies, such as Lonchocarpus sericeus and Anogeissus leiocarpa, could be targeted to ensure at low cost, currently and in the context of global climate change, fast reconstitution of secondary forests and disturbed ecosystems and the recovery of their biodiversity. Using occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Infor- mation Facility (GBIF) website and cur- rent environmental data, the factors that affected the distribution of the species were assessed in West Africa. The models developed in MaxEnt and R software for West Africa only, for both species, showed good predictive power with AUC > 0.80 and AUC ratios well above 1.5. The results were projected in future climate at the horizon 2055, using AfriClim data under rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 and suggested a little reduction in the range of L. seri- ceus and any variation for A. leiocarpa. The potential distribution of the two spe- cies indicated that they could be used for vegetation restoration activities both now and in the mid-21st century. Improve- ment are needed through the use of com- plementary data, the extension to others species and the assessment of uncertain- ties related to these predictions.

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Effects of climate change on the distributional potential of three range-restricted West African bird species

The Condor ◽

10.1093/condor/duz012 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 121 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Benedictus Freeman ◽

Julia Sunnarborg ◽

A Townsend Peterson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Global Climate ◽

West African ◽

Environmental Data ◽

Individual Species ◽

Tropical Species ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Niche Models

Abstract A detailed understanding of species’ responses to global climate change provides an informative baseline for designing conservation strategies to optimize protection of biodiversity. However, such information is either limited or not available for many tropical species, making it difficult to incorporate climate change into conservation planning for most tropical species. Here, we used correlative ecological niche models to assess potential distributional responses of 3 range-restricted West African birds, Timneh Parrot (Pscittacus erithracus timneh), Ballman’s Malimbe (Malimbus ballmanni), and White-necked Rockfowl (Picathartes gymnocephalus), to global climate change. We used primary biodiversity occurrence records for each species obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, eBird, and VertNet; for environmental data, we used climatic variables for the present and future, the latter characterized by 2 IPCC representative concentration pathways (4.5, 8.5) future emissions scenarios and 27 general circulation models for a 2050 time horizon. We found broad present-day potential distributions with respect to climate for all 3 species. Future potential distributions for Ballman’s Malimbe and White-necked Rockfowl tended to be stable and closely similar to their present-day distributions; by contrast, we found marked climate change–driven potential range loss across the range of Timneh Parrot. Our results suggest that impacts of climate change on the present distributions of West African birds will in some cases be minimal, but that individual species may respond differently to future conditions. Thus, to optimize conservation of these species, and of bird diversity in general, we recommend that regional-to-national species conservation action plans incorporate climate change adaptation strategies for individual species; ecological niche models could provide an informative baseline information for this planning and prioritization.

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Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli9040068 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 68

Author(s):

Mary Ann Cunningham ◽

Nicholas S. Wright ◽

Penelope B. Mort Ranta ◽

Hannah K. Benton ◽

Hassan G. Ragy ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sustainable Development ◽

West Africa ◽

Low Income ◽

Species Distribution Model ◽

Multiple Scales ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Influential Factor ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Limiting Factor

Climate models project vulnerability to global warming in low-income regions, with important implications for sustainable development. While food crops are the priority, smallholder cash crops support food security, education, and other priorities. Despite its importance as a populous region subject to substantial climate change, West Africa has received relatively slight attention in spatial assessments of climate impacts. In this region, rainfed cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) provides essential smallholder income. We used a spatially explicit species distribution model to project likely changes in the spatial distribution of suitable climates for rainfed cotton in West Africa. We modeled suitable climate conditions from the recent past (1970–2000) and projected the range of those conditions in 2050 (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). The suitable area declined by 60 percent under RCP4.5 and by 80 percent under RCP8.5. Of 15 countries in the study area, all but two declined to less than ten percent suitable under RCP8.5. The annual precipitation was the most influential factor in explaining baseline cotton distribution, but 2050 temperatures appear to become the limiting factor, rising beyond the range in which rainfed cotton has historically been grown. Adaptation to these changes and progress on sustainable development goals will depend on responses at multiple scales of governance, including global support and cooperation.

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