scholarly journals Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 68
Author(s):  
Mary Ann Cunningham ◽  
Nicholas S. Wright ◽  
Penelope B. Mort Ranta ◽  
Hannah K. Benton ◽  
Hassan G. Ragy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Influential Factor ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Limiting Factor

Climate models project vulnerability to global warming in low-income regions, with important implications for sustainable development. While food crops are the priority, smallholder cash crops support food security, education, and other priorities. Despite its importance as a populous region subject to substantial climate change, West Africa has received relatively slight attention in spatial assessments of climate impacts. In this region, rainfed cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) provides essential smallholder income. We used a spatially explicit species distribution model to project likely changes in the spatial distribution of suitable climates for rainfed cotton in West Africa. We modeled suitable climate conditions from the recent past (1970–2000) and projected the range of those conditions in 2050 (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). The suitable area declined by 60 percent under RCP4.5 and by 80 percent under RCP8.5. Of 15 countries in the study area, all but two declined to less than ten percent suitable under RCP8.5. The annual precipitation was the most influential factor in explaining baseline cotton distribution, but 2050 temperatures appear to become the limiting factor, rising beyond the range in which rainfed cotton has historically been grown. Adaptation to these changes and progress on sustainable development goals will depend on responses at multiple scales of governance, including global support and cooperation.

scholarly journals ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY OF PIONEER SPECIES FOR SECONDARY FOREST RESTORATION IN BENIN IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

2017 ◽  
Vol 332 ◽  
pp. 43-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Jaures Gbètoho ◽  
Augustin K. N. Aoudji ◽  
Lizanne Roxburgh ◽  
Jean C. Ganglo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Forest Restoration ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Secondary Forest ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Secondary Forests

In this study, species distribution model- ling (SDM) was applied to the manage- ment of secondary forests in Benin. This study aims at identifying suitable areas where the use of candidate pioneer spe- cies, such as Lonchocarpus sericeus and Anogeissus leiocarpa, could be targeted to ensure at low cost, currently and  in  the context of global climate change, fast reconstitution of secondary forests and disturbed ecosystems and the recovery  of their biodiversity. Using occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Infor- mation Facility (GBIF) website and cur- rent environmental data, the factors that affected the distribution of the species were assessed in West Africa. The models developed in MaxEnt and  R  software  for West Africa only, for both species, showed good predictive power with  AUC > 0.80 and AUC ratios well above 1.5. The results were projected in future climate at the horizon 2055, using AfriClim data under rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 and suggested a little reduction in the range of L. seri- ceus and any variation for A. leiocarpa. The potential distribution of the two spe- cies indicated that they could be used for vegetation restoration activities both now and in the mid-21st century. Improve- ment are needed through the use of com- plementary data, the extension to others species and the assessment of uncertain- ties related to these predictions.

scholarly journals Public Perceptions of Climate Change in the Peruvian Andes

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2677
Author(s):  
Adrian Brügger ◽  
Robert Tobias ◽  
Fredy S. Monge-Rodríguez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Peruvian Andes ◽  
Food Shortages ◽  
Education Levels

How people subjectively perceive climate change strongly influences how they respond to its challenges. To date, relatively little is known about such perceptions in the Global South. This research examines public perceptions of climate change in the Peruvian Andes, a semi-arid high-mountain region that is highly exposed and vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change. Based on questionnaire data collected through face-to-face interviews (N = 1316), we found that respondents identify various climate-related issues as the most important challenges for their country. Many of these issues are related to water. Respondents also noticed more subtle changes and expected them to continue (e.g., extreme temperatures, food shortages). Climate impacts were clearly seen as negative, which was also reflected in the presence of emotions. When compared to previous research, more respondents had personally experienced extreme weather events (80%) and they were more certain that the climate is already changing, is caused by human activity, and is affecting distant and close places similarly. A comparison of the perceptions along different socioeconomic characteristics suggests that more vulnerable groups (e.g., rural, low income and education levels) tended to perceive climate change as more consequential, closer, and as a more natural (vs. anthropogenic) phenomenon than those from less vulnerable groups. The salience of water-related problems and personal experiences of climate-related events, as well as differences between various subgroups, could be used to improve measures to adapt to the consequences of climate change by correcting misconceptions of the population and of decisionmakers.

Leveraging Bogotá: Sustainable development, global philanthropy and the rise of urban solutionism

Urban Studies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (11) ◽  
pp. 2263-2281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Montero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
International Development ◽  
Urban Policy ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Global Development ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Development Agenda ◽  
Policy Solutions

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is marked by the consolidation of sustainability as a key guiding principle and an emphasis on cities as a potential solution to global development problems. However, in the absence of an agreement on how to implement sustainable development in cities, a set of urban policy solutions and ‘best practices’ became the vehicles through which the sustainable development agenda is spreading worldwide. This article shows that the rapid circulation of Bogotá as a model of sustainable transport since the 2000s reflects an increasing focus of the international development apparatus on urban policy solutions as an arena to achieve global development impacts, what I call the ‘leveraging cities’ logic in this article. This logic emerges at a particular historical conjuncture characterised by: (1) the rising power of global philanthropy to set development agendas; (2) the generalisation of solutionism as a strategy of action among development and philanthropic organisations; and (3) the increasing attention on cities as solutions for global development problems, particularly around sustainability and climate change. By connecting urban policy mobilities debates with development studies this article seeks to unpack the emergence, and the limits, of ‘leveraging cities’ as a proliferating global development practice. These urban policy solutions are far from being a clear framework of action. Rather, their circulation becomes a ‘quick fix’ to frame the problem of sustainable development given the unwillingness of development and philanthropic organisations to intervene in the structural factors and multiple scales that produce environmental degradation and climate change.

scholarly journals Overcoming gender inequality for climate resilient development

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Andrijevic ◽  
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma ◽  
Tabea Lissner ◽  
Adelle Thomas ◽  
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Gender Inequality ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Gender Inequalities ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Inequality Index ◽  
Differential Vulnerability ◽  
Near Term

AbstractGender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. We provide trajectories of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) alongside the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a scenario framework widely used in climate science. Here we find that rapid improvements in gender inequality are possible under a sustainable development scenario already in the near-term. The share of girls growing up in countries with the highest gender inequality could be reduced to about 24% in 2030 compared to about 70% today. Largely overcoming gender inequality as assessed in the GII would be within reach by mid-century. Under less optimistic scenarios, gender inequality may persist throughout the 21st century. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating gender in scenarios assessing future climate impacts and underscore the relevance of addressing gender inequalities in policies aiming to foster climate resilient development.

Projections of future habitat use by Atlantic bluefin tuna: mechanistic vs. correlative distribution models

2016 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 698-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara A. Muhling ◽  
Richard Brill ◽  
John T. Lamkin ◽  
Mitchell A. Roffer ◽  
Sang-Ki Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Bluefin Tuna ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Oxygen Balance ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna ◽  
Fishing Fleets

Climate change is likely to drive complex shifts in the distribution and ecology of marine species. Projections of future changes may vary, however, depending on the biological impact model used. In this study, we compared a correlative species distribution model and a simple mechanistic oxygen balance model for Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus: ABFT) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Both models gave similar results for the recent historical time period, and suggested that ABFT generally occupy favourable metabolic habitats. Projections from an earth system model showed largely temperature-induced reductions in ABFT habitat in the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic by 2100. However, the oxygen balance model showed more optimistic results in parts of the subpolar North Atlantic. This was partially due to an inherent ability to extrapolate beyond conditions currently encountered by pelagic longline fishing fleets. Projections included considerable uncertainty due to the simplicity of the biological models, and the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of the analyses. Despite these limitations, our results suggest that climate change is likely to increase metabolic stress on ABFT in sub-tropical habitats, but may improve habitat suitability in subpolar habitats, with implications for spawning and migratory behaviours, and availability to fishing fleets.

scholarly journals Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change: A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Falk ◽  
Nils Hempelmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
The North

Climate is the main environmental driver determining the spatial distribution of most tree species at the continental scale. We investigated the distribution change of European beech and Norway spruce due to climate change. We applied a species distribution model (SDM), driven by an ensemble of 21 regional climate models in order to study the shift of the favourability distribution of these species. SDMs were parameterized for 1971–2000, as well as 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 using the SRES scenario A1B and three physiological meaningful climate variables. Growing degree sum and precipitation sum were calculated for the growing season on a basis of daily data. Results show a general north-eastern and altitudinal shift in climatological favourability for both species, although the shift is more marked for spruce. The gain of new favourable sites in the north or in the Alps is stronger for beech compared to spruce. Uncertainty is expressed as the variance of the averaged maps and with a density function. Uncertainty in species distribution increases over time. This study demonstrates the importance of data ensembles and shows how to deal with different outcomes in order to improve impact studies by showing uncertainty of the resulting maps.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins with species distribution model

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12001
Author(s):  
Jinbo Fu ◽  
Linlin Zhao ◽  
Changdong Liu ◽  
Bin Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Sousa Chinensis ◽  
The Impact

As IUCN critically vulnerable species,the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) have attracted great public attention in recent years. The threats of human disturbance and environmental pollution to this population have been documented extensively. However, research on the sensitivity of this species to climate change is lacking. To understand the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Sousa chinensis, we developed a weighted ensemble model based on 82 occurrence records and six predictor variables (e.g., ocean depth, distance to shore, mean temperature, salinity, ice thickness, and current velocity). According to the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), our ensemble model presented higher prediction precision than most of the single-algorithm models. It also indicated that ocean depth and distance to shore were the most important predictors in shaping the distribution patterns. The projections for the 2050s and 2100s from our ensemble model indicated a severe adverse impact of climate change on the Sousa chinensis habitat. Over 75% and 80% of the suitable habitat in the present day will be lost in all representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCPS) in the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. With the increased numbers of records of stranding and deaths of Sousa chinensis in recent years, strict management regulations and conservation plans are urgent to safeguard the current suitable habitats. Due to habitat contraction and poleward shift in the future, adaptive management strategies, including designing new reserves and adjusting the location and range of reserves according to the geographical distribution of Sousa chinensis, should be formulated to minimize the impacts of climate change on this species.

scholarly journals Low-Carbon Quick Wins: Integrating Short-Term Sustainable Transport Options in Climate Policy in Low-Income Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bakker ◽  
Haq ◽  
Peet ◽  
Gota ◽  
Medimorec ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Change Strategies ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Sustainable Transport ◽  
Gas Emissions

In low income countries (LICs) in Africa and Asia per capita transport greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low but are expected to grow. Therefore, a substantial reduction in projected increases is required to bring emissions in line with long-term global climate objectives. Literature on how LICs are integrating climate change mitigation and sustainable transport strategies is limited. Key drivers of transport policy include improving accessibility, congestion, air quality, energy security, with reducing greenhouse gas emissions being of lower priority. This paper assesses the current status, feasibility and potential of selected low-carbon transport measures with high sustainable development benefits that can be implemented in the short to medium term, so- called ‘quick wins’. It examines to what extent ten such quick wins are integrated in climate change strategies in nine low- and middle-income countries in Africa and South Asia. The research method comprises expert interviews, an online questionnaire survey of experts and policymakers in the focus countries, and a review of literature and government plans. Results indicate that sustainable urban transport policies and measures are considered high priority, with vehicle-related measures such as fuel quality and fuel economy standards and electric two- and three-wheelers being of key relevance. In existing national climate change strategies, these quick wins are integrated to a certain extent; however, with better coordination between transport and energy and environment agencies such strategies can be improved. A general conclusion of this paper is that for LICs, quick wins can connect a ‘top-down’ climate perspective with a ‘bottom-up’ transport sector perspective. A knowledge gap exists as to the mitigation potential and sustainable development benefits of these quick wins in the local context of LICs.

scholarly journals Projecting Suitability and Climate Vulnerability of Bhutanitis thaidina (Blanchard) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) with Conservation Implications

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shao-Ji Hu ◽  
Dong-Hui Xing ◽  
Zhi-Xian Gong ◽  
Jin-Ming Hu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Fragmentation ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Food Plants ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Northwestern Yunnan ◽  
Northeastern Yunnan

Abstract Bhutanitis thaidina is an endemic, rare, and protected swallowtail in China. Deforestation, habitat fragmentation, illegal commercialised capture, and exploitation of larval food plants are believed to be the four major causes of population decline of B. thaidina in the recent decade. However, little attention was paid to the impact of climate change. This study used ecological niche factor analysis and species distribution model to analyse the current suitable areas for B. thaidina with BioClim variables as well as its future suitable areas under four future climate scenarios (represented by four Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Statistical analysis was carried out to compare the possible area and altitude changes to the distribution of B. thaidina under changing climate. Our analyses showed that the suitable areas for B. thaidina are fragmented under the current climate, with four suitable centres in northwestern Yunnan, northeastern Yunnan and northwestern Guizhou, the western margin of Sichuan Basin, and Qinling mountains. Apart from further habitat fragmentation under climate change, slight range expansion (average 6.0–8.9%) was detected under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, while more range contraction (average 1.3–26.9%) was detected under the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the two southern suitable centres suffering most. Also, a tendency of contraction (2,500–3,500 m) and upslope shift (~600 m) in suitable altitude range were detected. The findings of this study supported the climate-vulnerable hypothesis of B. thaidina, especially under future climate like the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, in terms of contraction in suitable areas and altitude ranges. Conservation priority should be given to northwestern Yunnan, northeastern Yunnan, and northwestern Guizhou to alleviate the stress of massive habitat loss and extinction. Refugial areas should be established in all four suitable centres to maintain genetic diversity of B. thaidina in China.

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