scholarly journals Scenario Model to Mitigate Traffic Congestion and Improve Commuting Time Efficiency

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 112
Author(s):  
Shabrina Luthfiani Khanza ◽  
Erma Suryani ◽  
Rully Agus Hendrawan
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Travel Time ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Project Implementation ◽  
Time Efficiency ◽  
Commuting Time ◽  
System Dynamics Simulation ◽  
The Impact

Background: Commuting time is highly influenced by traffic congestion. System dynamics simulation can help identify the cause of traffic problems to improve travel time efficiency.Objective: This study aims to reduce traffic congestion and minimise commuting time efficiency using system dynamics simulation and scenarios. The developed scenarios implement the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and trams projects in the model.Methods: System dynamics simulation is used to analyse the transport system in Surabaya and the impact of BRT and trams project implementation in the model in order to improve commuting time and to reduce congestion.Results: From the simulation results, with the implementation of BRT and tram projects along with highway expansion, traffic congestion is predicted to decline by 24-44%.  With the reduction of traffic congestion, travel time efficiency is predicted to improve by 11-28%. On the contrary, implementation of BRT and tram project without highway expansion is predicted to increase the traffic congestion by 5% in the initial year of implementation, then traffic congestion is predicted to decline by 2% in 2035.Conclusion: Based on the scenarios, transport project implementation such as BRT and trams should be accompanied with improvement of infrastructure. Further research is needed to develop a more comprehensive transportation system to capture a broader view of the problem. Keywords: Model, Simulation, System Dynamics, Traffic Congestion, Travel Time 

A system dynamics simulation model for water conflicts in the Zhanghe River Basin, China

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Liang Yuan ◽  
Weijun He ◽  
Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu ◽  
Zhongchi Wan ◽  
Thomas Stephen Ramsey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Water Conflicts ◽  
System Dynamics Simulation

scholarly journals Long-term effectiveness of elderly health care voucher scheme strategies: a system dynamics simulation analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ka Chun Chong ◽  
Hong Fung ◽  
Carrie Ho Kwan Yam ◽  
Patsy Yuen Kwan Chau ◽  
Tsz Yu Chow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Chronic Disease ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The elderly healthcare voucher (EHCV) scheme is expected to lead to an increase in the number of elderly people selecting private primary healthcare services and reduce reliance on the public sector in Hong Kong. However, studies thus far have reported that this scheme has not received satisfactory responses. In this study, we examined changes in the ratio of visits between public and private doctors in primary care (to measure reliance on the public sector) for different strategic scenarios in the EHCV scheme. Methods Based on comments from an expert panel, a system dynamics model was formulated to simulate the impact of various enhanced strategies in the scheme: increasing voucher amounts, lowering the age eligibility, and designating vouchers for chronic conditions follow-up. Data and statistics for the model calibration were collected from various sources. Results The simulation results show that the current EHCV scheme is unable to reduce the utilization of public healthcare services, as well as the ratio of visits between public and private primary care among the local aging population. When comparing three different tested scenarios, even if the increase in the annual voucher amount could be maintained at the current pace or the age eligibility can be lowered to include those aged 60 years, the impact on shifts from public-to-private utilization were insignificant. The public-to-private ratio could only be marginally reduced from 0.74 to 0.64 in the first several years. Nevertheless, introducing a chronic disease-oriented voucher could result in a significant drop of 0.50 in the public-to-private ratio during the early implementation phase. However, the effect could not be maintained for an extended period. Conclusions Our findings will assist officials in improving the design of the EHCV scheme, within the wider context of promoting primary care among the elderly. We suggest that an additional chronic disease-oriented voucher can serve as an alternative strategy. The scheme must be redesigned to address more specific objectives or provide a separate voucher that promotes under-utilized healthcare services (e.g., preventive care), instead of services designed for unspecified reasons, which may lead to concerns regarding exploitation.

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