Contingencies of Violent Radicalization: The Terror Contagion Simulation

This paper builds confidence in the terror contagion hypothesis that violent radicalization leading to predatory mass violence operates as a system. Within this system, the contingent values of key root causes create channels within which violent ideologies and terrorism emerge. We built a system dynamics simulation model capable of replicating historical reference modes and sophisticated enough to test the contingent values of these propositions. Of 16 propositions, we identified six root-cause propositions that must simultaneously exist, act in concert and explain the dynamics of their interaction which generate a terror contagion. Other propositions can strengthen or weaken an existing contagion but not eliminate it. We use an experiment to demonstrate how changing the contingent values of these propositions creates downward channels. This experiment helps reconcile the swarm vs. fishermen debate over the true root causes of violent radicalization. Within these channels, the contingent values can favor swarm or fishermen manifestations. The simulation and experimentation results enable the future development of the terror contagion hypothesis, provide a testing environment for research on violent radicalization, and provide a pathway to policy development in the combating of terrorism that arises from violent radicalization.

Scenario Model to Mitigate Traffic Congestion and Improve Commuting Time Efficiency

Background: Commuting time is highly influenced by traffic congestion. System dynamics simulation can help identify the cause of traffic problems to improve travel time efficiency.Objective: This study aims to reduce traffic congestion and minimise commuting time efficiency using system dynamics simulation and scenarios. The developed scenarios implement the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and trams projects in the model.Methods: System dynamics simulation is used to analyse the transport system in Surabaya and the impact of BRT and trams project implementation in the model in order to improve commuting time and to reduce congestion.Results: From the simulation results, with the implementation of BRT and tram projects along with highway expansion, traffic congestion is predicted to decline by 24-44%. With the reduction of traffic congestion, travel time efficiency is predicted to improve by 11-28%. On the contrary, implementation of BRT and tram project without highway expansion is predicted to increase the traffic congestion by 5% in the initial year of implementation, then traffic congestion is predicted to decline by 2% in 2035.Conclusion: Based on the scenarios, transport project implementation such as BRT and trams should be accompanied with improvement of infrastructure. Further research is needed to develop a more comprehensive transportation system to capture a broader view of the problem. Keywords: Model, Simulation, System Dynamics, Traffic Congestion, Travel Time