scholarly journals Risk-Return Analysis on Optimum Portfolio Selection of Islamic Stocks

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Siti Amaroh ◽  
Chanif Nasichah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Excess Return ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Closing Price ◽  
Stock Portfolio ◽  
Portfolio Return ◽  
Selection Of

<p><em>This study aims to determine the optimum portfolio category and analyze the risk-return on a formed portfolio. Data was taken from eighteen listed companies indexed by Jakarta Islamic Index during 2015-2018. Stock returns are calculated based on the closing price at the end of each month in the period. Sharia Certificate of Bank Indonesia is a proxy of risk-free return, while the market return is measured by the value of the Jakarta Islamic Index. Stocks are sorted by the value of excess return to beta (ERB) from highest to lowest, and to obtain optimal stock portfolio candidates, and the ERB value must be compared with the cut-off rate value. Seven issuers qualify for forming the optimum portfolio of shares. The results show that the optimum portfolio return is greater than the expected return and the expected risk-free return. When compared between individual stock returns and portfolio stock returns, some individual stocks provide higher returns than portfolio returns. However, the risk of individual shares was also higher than the risk of the portfolio. This finding proves that risk can be reduced optimally in Islamic stocks selection by forming an optimum portfolio.</em></p>

scholarly journals A Pricing Model in a Sensitive Insurance Market

1982 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franco Moriconi
Keyword(s):  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Performance Criterion ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Safety Index ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Pricing Policy ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Insurance Portfolio ◽  
Premium Calculation ◽  
Selection Of

A great attention has been devoted, in the actuarial literature, to premium calculation principles and it has been often emphasized that these principles should not only be defined in strictly actuarial terms, but should also take into account the market conditions (Bühlmann (1980), de Jong (1981)).In this paper we propose a decision model to define the pricing policy of an insurance company that operates in a market which is stratified in k risk classes .It is assumed that any class constitutes a homogeneous collective containing independent risks Sj(t) of compound Poisson type, with the same intensity λj. The number nj of risks of that are held in the insurance portfolio depends on the premium charged to the class by means of a demand function which captures the concept of risk aversion and represents the fraction of individuals of , that insure themselves at the annual premium xj.With these assumptions, the return Y on the portfolio is a function of the vector x = (x1, x2, …, xk) of the prices charged to the single classes (and of the time) and x is therefore the decision policy instrument adopted by the company for the selection of the portfolio, whose optimal composition is evaluated according to a risk-return type performance criterion.As a measure of risk we adopt the ultimate ruin probability q(w) that, in the assumptions of our model, can be related to a safety index τ, by means of Lundberg-de Finetti inequality. Even though it has been widely debated in the actuarial field, the use of q(w) offers undeniable operational advantages. In our case the safety index τ can be expressed as a function of x and therefore, in the phase of selecting an efficient portfolio, it becomes the function to be maximized, for a given level M of the expected return.

scholarly journals SCALED AND STABLE MEAN-VARIANCE-EVAR PORTFOLIO SELECTION STRATEGY WITH PROPORTIONAL TRANSACTION COSTS

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 561-584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebenezer Fiifi Emire ATTA MILLS ◽  
Bo YU ◽  
Jie YU
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Downside Risk ◽  
Estimation Risk ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Proportional Transaction Costs ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
L2 Norm ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Variance

This paper studies a portfolio optimization problem with variance and Entropic Value-at-Risk (evar) as risk measures. As the variance measures the deviation around the expected return, the introduction of evar in the mean-variance framework helps to control the downside risk of portfolio returns. This study utilized the squared l2-norm to alleviate estimation risk problems arising from the mean estimate of random returns. To adequately represent the variance-evar risk measure of the resulting portfolio, this study pursues rescaling by the capital accessible after payment of transaction costs. The results of this paper extend the classical Markowitz model to the case of proportional transaction costs and enhance the efficiency of portfolio selection by alleviating estimation risk and controlling the downside risk of portfolio returns. The model seeks to meet the requirements of regulators and fund managers as it represents a balance between short tails and variance. The practical implications of the findings of this study are that the model when applied, will increase the amount of capital for investment, lower transaction cost and minimize risk associated with the deviation around the expected return at the expense of a small additional risk in short tails.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic announcements and stock returns in US portfolios formed on operating profitability and investment

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantinos Alexiou ◽  
Sofoklis Vogiazas ◽  
Abid Taqvi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Stock Portfolios ◽  
Macroeconomic Announcements ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Investment Level ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Stock Portfolio

The authors explore the reaction of US stock portfolio returns to macroeconomic announcements spanning the period from April 1998 to May 2017. Using daily returns of 25 portfolios formed on operating profitability and investment, the authors investigate the extent to which potential asymmetries permeate the stock portfolios following macroeconomic announcements. The three methodological approaches utilized in this study suggest that the ISM non-manufacturing index, employees on non-farm payrolls, retail sales, personal consumption expenditure and initial jobless claims have a significant impact on portfolio returns. Also, portfolios consisting of companies with higher operating profitability and investment level are found to be less responsive to announcements. As the particular area has received little currency over the years, this contribution is of great significance, because it provides insights into the reaction of returns in value-weighted portfolios to announcements on certain macro-indicators. At the same time, the study informs portfolio managers of the implications of macroeconomic news, which drive economic expectations and can reverberate through the expected returns in US stock portfolios.

Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns over the Business Cycle

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henri Nyberg
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Cycle Indicator

AbstractIn the empirical finance literature, findings on the risk-return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, I develop a new qualitative response (QR)-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in-mean (GARCH-M) model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime-switching GARCH-M model for excess stock market return with the business cycle indicator defining the regime. Estimation results show that there is statistically significant variation in the U.S. excess stock returns over the business cycle. However, consistent with the conditional intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), there is a positive risk-return relationship between volatility and expected return independent of the state of the economy.

Is There an Intertemporal Relation between Downside Risk and Expected Returns?

2009 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 883-909 ◽  
Author(s):  
Turan G. Bali ◽  
K. Ozgur Demirtas ◽  
Haim Levy
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Downside Risk ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Significant Relation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Expected Stock Returns

AbstractThis paper examines the intertemporal relation between downside risk and expected stock returns. Value at Risk (VaR), expected shortfall, and tail risk are used as measures of downside risk to determine the existence and significance of a risk-return tradeoff. We find a positive and significant relation between downside risk and the portfolio returns on NYSE/AMEX/Nasdaq stocks. VaR remains a superior measure of risk when compared with the traditional risk measures. These results are robust across different stock market indices, different measures of downside risk, loss probability levels, and after controlling for macroeconomic variables and volatility over different holding periods as originally proposed by Harrison and Zhang (1999).

scholarly journals Analisis Portofolio Optimal Saham Indeks Lq-45 Dengan Model Indeks Tunggal Di Bursa Efek Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
ALMUNFARIJAH ALMUNFARIJAH
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Optimal Portfolio ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Minimum Risk ◽  
High Return ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Portfolio Return

Rational investors  invest in efficient stocks, the stocks that have  high return with minimum risk. The sample in this study using the stocks in the group LQ-45 index during the period February 2013-July 2013. The purpose of the study was to establish the optimal portfolio and to know the difference between stock returns and the risk of candidate and non-candidate portfolirn On Equity (ROE).The results showed there were 15 stocks that become candidate in a portfolio out of 45 stocks studied with the cut of point value -2.7-7. Optimal portfolio is formed by 15 stocks that have excess returns to beta (ERB) which is greater than the risk-free return (Rf).The largest proportion of funds owned by PT Kalbe FarmaTbk i.e 16,2 %, and the smallest proportion of the funds owned by PT Bank Central Asia Tbk i.e 0,1101288%. Rational investor would prioritize to invest in securities that have a the largest proportion of the funds, because of that large proportion of funds so we will be getting higher profit with the certain risks as well.Investors that will invest theirs funds into these 15 companies that have formes this optimal portfolio would get portfolio profit 2,1-7 and portfolio risk -2.7-7. That portfolio profit is not far different with the expected return of each individual stock. So despite using LQ-45 stocks that have the biggest marketing capitalization and the most liquid infact it has not guarante that investors would gain their expectation of getting portfolio return as what they expected.Risk portfolio of 2,1-7 is smaller than the risk level of each individual stock . Although the establishment of the optimal portfolio yield expected return of portfolio which is not much different with thereturn of individual stock,but still provide the benefit of diversification that is beneficial for reducing the risk of each individual stock

scholarly journals Consumption-Based Asset Pricing When Consumers Make Mistakes

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (015) ◽  
pp. 1-71
Author(s):  
Chris Anderson ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Asset Pricing Models ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Wide Range

I analyze the implications of allowing consumers to make mistakes on the risk-return relationships predicted by consumption-based asset pricing models. I allow for consumption mistakes using a model in which a portfolio manager selects investments on a consumer's behalf. The consumer has an arbitrary consumption policy that could reflect a wide range of mistakes. For power utility, expected returns do not generally depend on exposure to single-period consumption shocks, but robustly depend on exposure to both long-run consumption and expected return shocks. I empirically show that separately accounting for both types of shocks helps explain the equity premium and cross section of stock returns.

NONLINEAR RISK

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 621-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelle Chauvet ◽  
Simon Potter
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Conditional Expectation ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Conditional Moments ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Excess Stock Returns ◽  
The Business Cycle

This paper analyzes the joint time-series properties of the level and volatility of expected excess stock returns. An unobservable dynamic factor is constructed as a nonlinear proxy for the market risk premia with its first moment and conditional volatility driven by a latent Markov variable. The model allows for the possibility that the risk–return relationship may not be constant across the Markov states or over time. We find an overall negative contemporaneous relationship between the conditional expectation and variance of the monthly value-weighted excess return. However, the sign of the correlation is not stable, but instead varies according to the stage of the business cycle. In particular, around the beginning of recessions, volatility rises substantially, reflecting great uncertainty associated with these periods, while expected return falls, anticipating a decline in earnings. Thus, around economic peaks there is a negative relationship between conditional expectation and variance. However, toward the end of a recession expected return is at its highest value as an anticipation of the economic recovery, and volatility is still very high in anticipation of the end of the contraction. That is, the risk–return relation is positive around business-cycle troughs. This time-varying behavior also holds for noncontemporaneous correlations of these two conditional moments.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN CAPM DENGAN TFMFF DALAM MENGESTIMASI RETURN SAHAM PADA JII PERIODE 2014-2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Esi Fitriani Komara ◽  
Eka Yulianti
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Excess Return ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
Capm Beta ◽  
Actual Return ◽  
Simple Regression ◽  
Better Than

ABSTRACT In investing investors need to estimate returns, it is intended that the desired actual return is in accordance with the expected return. CAPM and TFMFF are models that can estimate stock returns. This study aims to determine whether (1) in the CAPM beta model as market risk affects the return. (2) on TFMFF excess return, firm size and BE / ME have an effect on return. As well as (3) CAPM or TFMFF which can estimate return better. The sample of this research is JII stocks for the period 2014-2016. Data analysis used is simple regression for CAPM and panel data regression for TFMFF. The results of this study state that, (1) beta does not affect return. (2) excess return and firm size affect return while BE / ME does not affect return. (3) TFMFF is better than CAPM in estimating the return of JII for the period 2014-2016.Keywords: CAPM; TFMFF ABSTRAKDalam melakukan investasi investor perlu mengestimasi return, hal tersebut bertujuan  agar return aktual yang diinginkan sesuai dengan return yang diharapkan. CAPM dan TFMFF merupakan model yang dapat mengestimasi return saham. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah (1) pada model CAPM beta sebagai risiko pasar berperpengaruh terhadap return. (2) pada TFMFF excess return, firm size dan BE/ME berperpengaruh terhadap return.Serta (3) CAPM atau TFMFF yang dapat mengestimasi return lebih baik.Sampel penelitian ini adalah saham-saham JII periode 2014-2016. Analisis data yang digunakan adalah regresi sederhana untuk CAPM dan regresi data panel untuk TFMFF. Hasil penelitian ini menyatakan bahwa, (1) beta tidak berpengaruh terhadap return. (2) excess return dan firm size berpengaruh terhadap return sedangkan BE/ME tidak berpengaruh terhadap return.(3) TFMFF lebih baik dibandingkan CAPM dalam mengestimasi return JII periode 2014-2016.Kata Kunci: CAPM; TFMFF

scholarly journals Portfolio Selection using DEA-COPRAS at Risk – Return Interface Based on NSE (India)

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 4078-4087
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Criteria Weights ◽  
Constituent Elements ◽  
Selection Of

Portfolio formation holds paramount importance in the process of the investment decision making since, a single door investment (SDI) option is much riskier than a multiple door investment (MDI) option. Among available financial instruments, the stock market (SM) has allured investors because of its liquidity and growth opportunities. However, the effectiveness of the investment decision is largely reflected in the selection of the constituent elements of the portfolio by an investor while trading off risk and return. In this paper, after an initial level selection of for formulating a possible portfolio by using Perceptual Map (PM), we have applied DEA to calculate the efficiency of the stocks at the risk-return interface based on the market performance. In order to ascertain that the stock selection is logical and worthwhile, we further probe the fundamental performances over a time period of five consecutive financial years using the method of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework based on the Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) method, where, the criteria weights are calculated by using the entropy method. A consistency is visible in the yearly fundamental performances and a significant pattern with regard to the portfolio selection.

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