PERBANDINGAN KINERJA PORTOFOLIO SAHAM DI JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX DAN IDX30 PERIODE 2016–2018

ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perbedaan antara kinerja portofolio saham Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) dan IDX30 periode 2016–2018. Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian verifikatif dengan metode explanatory survey dan menggunakan teknik statistik komparatif. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis Markowitz dengan pendekatan minimum variance. Sampel yang digunakan adalah 189 saham Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) dan 200 saham IDX30. Hasil pengujian kinerja portofolio dengan menggunakan uji beda independent sample t-test, tidak terdapat perbedaan antara kinerja portofolio Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) dengan kinerja portofolio IDX30. Kemudian, dari hasil perhitungan Sharpe Ratio pada Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) dan IDX30 pada setiap periodenya bernilai positif. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa portofolio dari kedua indeks selalu memperlihatkan kinerja yang bernilai positif atau baik. Implikasinya adalah tidak ada return tambahan yang dapat diperoleh investor dengan cara membedakan saham yang memiliki kiteria syariah dengan yang bukan syariah. ABSTRACTThis study aims to determine the difference between the performance of the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and IDX30 stock portfolios for the 2016–2018 period. This type of research is a verification research with an explanatory survey method and using comparative statistical techniques. This research uses Markowitz analysis method with Minimum Variance approach. The sample used is 189 shares of Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and 200 shares of IDX30. The results of portfolio performance testing using the independent sample t-test difference test, there is no difference between the performance of the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) portfolio and the performance of the IDX30 portfolio. Then, from the results of the calculation of the Sharpe Ratio on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and IDX30 in each period it is positive, this shows that the portfolios of the two indexes always show positive or good performance. The implication is that there is no additional return that can be obtained by investors by distinguishing stocks that have sharia criteria from those that are not sharia.

The Impact of Business Cycles, Stock Market Phases and Crisis on the Value Premium: The Indian Experience

Purpose :This paper is an attempt to explore the relationship between the value premium and expected stock returns in the Indian stock market and evaluates whether the value premium disappears or not when the different economic conditions (Boom & Recession), market conditions (Bull & Bear) and 2008 Global financial crisis are considered. Methodology: The annual data of 500 companies belonging to BSE-500 from 1999- 2017 was collected and ten portfolios were constructed and sorted using six valuation proxies (P/B, P/E, D/P/, CF/P, S/P and EV/PBDITA). Standard CAPM and Dual beta market model were employed. Findings: The empirical results confirm that irrespective of market conditions, value stock portfolios surpass growth stock portfolios in the Indian stock market by delivering significant abnormal returns. Practical implications: The paper holds important implications for asset pricing literature and investors. The higher returns generated by value stocks during the crisis and recession period imply that investors can put faith in the value stocks during times of adversity. The future value of an investment is a function of its present price. The lower the price, the higher the returns will be. Therefore, value stocks are good investments whether it is boom or recession, bull or bear, crisis or non-crisis periods. Originality: The paper is first of its kind to study the impact of business cycles, stock market phases and crisis on the value premium in the Indian stock market. The paper contributes to portfolio management and asset pricing literature for an emerging market.

A Balanced Portfolio Can Have a Higher Geometric Return than the Risky Asset

In the U.S., the geometric return on stocks has been higher than the geometric return on bonds over long periods. We study whether balanced portfolios have a larger geometric return (and expected log return) than stock portfolios when the risk premium is low. We use a theoretical model and historical data and find that this is the case. This low-risk premium is often observed in other developed countries. Further, in the past two decades, a balanced portfolio with 70% or 90% invested in the U.S. stock market (with the remainder invested in U.S. government bonds) performed better than a 100% stock or bond portfolio. The reason for this is that a pure stock portfolio loses a large fraction of its value in a downturn. We show that this result is not driven by outliers, and that it occurs even when the returns are log normally distributed. This result has broad policy implications for the construction of pension systems and target-date mutual funds.

Analysis of Portfolio Expected Returns as a Material Consideration for Investors in Choosing Investments in the Pandemic Period (Formation of Optimal Portfolios Using the Black Litterman Model on Hang Seng Stocks for the 2017-2019 Period)

. This study attempts to find out how a method of Black Litterman in the formation of stock portfolios. This research was conducted on the basis of increasing the number of investors' funds in the capital market for certain stocks, showing that it increases positive sentiment on stock investments compared to other investments. The Black Litterman Model method is one of the options that can be used in the formation of portfolio. The Black Litterman model method is a method that formulates the existence of an element of return equilibrium and investor views in an investment. By using the Black Litterman Model, investors can take advantage of all available information as the basis for forming a maximum portfolio. The object of this research is Hang Seng (HSI) stock price data for the period 2017 – 2019. The research sample is 35 companies. The results of this study resulted in 10 stocks included in the Black Litterman model portfolio with the expected return on the portfolio (which consisted of 10 stocks with the Black Litterman model) of 0.062387. Where the highest proportion of returns given by Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited (SEHK: 2313) is 23% and the expected return is 0.017933. While the lowest level is occupied by New World Development Company Limited (SEHK: 17) with a proportion of 1% and an expected return of 0.000687.

Dynamic diversification benefits of Sukuk and conventional bonds for the financial performance of MENA region companies: empirical evidence from COVID-19 pandemic period

Purpose This study aims to investigate the spillover between the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock index and several security indices, including Sukuk and conventional bond, and ultimately compare the hedge effectiveness of Sukuk and conventional bond. Design/methodology/approach The study uses VAR (1)-asymmetric Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner-multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (1,1) model to analyze the volatility and shock and asymmetric shock spillover between Sukuk index and several bond indices in the MENA region including, Bond, All Bond, High Yield Bond and Bond and Sukuk and MENA stock market index and ultimately compare the hedging capabilities of Sukuk and conventional bonds by calculating the optimal portfolio weights for securities indices and stock portfolios and hedge effectiveness of security indices. Findings Results indicate that there is no shock, volatility and asymmetric shock spillover between the Sukuk index and MENA stock index, implying that Sukuk indices behave independently from MENA stock indices; however, there is shock and asymmetric shock spillover between MENA stock indices and security indices that include conventional bonds. The result of optimal portfolio weights and corresponding hedge effectiveness indicate that Sukuk is the most significant asset among other security indices in diversifying and hedging stock MENA portfolios. Moreover, the hedge effectiveness of Sukuk shows persistent trends during both the normal and crisis periods. Practical implications The study suggests that MENA stock market investors and investment managers should add Sukuk instead of the conventional bond to their portfolio to hedge their portfolio against investment risks during both normal and crisis periods. Originality/value Although many studies compare many aspects of Sukuk and conventional bonds, this is the first study that compares the hedge effectiveness of Sukuk and conventional bond based on the time-varying optimal portfolio weights strategy.

The Formulation of a Dynamic Portfolio between Gold and Stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the COVID-19 Pandemic

COVID-19 pandemic made investor to be careful to choose the portfolio instrument. A portfolio that is formed by the right instrument certainly can minimize risks and maximize the return. This research analyzes the dynamic portfolio formed by gold and leading stocks in COVID-19 period, which is better than the the portfolio formed by stocks alone. The data used is secondary data, which is the LQ-45 index daily closing price data and world gold prices. This research also uses risk free rate data taken from bi.go.id. The analysis technique in this research is DCC-GARCH. Findings. This research concludes that stock portfolios with gold showing a good performance result with variability-based measurement.

Optimization of Stock Portfolios Using Goal Programming Based on the Kalman-Filter Method

Long-term stock investment development is carried out by means of portfolio optimization. Selection of stocks for portfolios is not only based on high-value stock prices but also takes into account their fluctuations. Estimation of future stock price fluctuations has an indirect impact on future portfolio formation. This research has implemented the Kalman filter method to obtain the best estimation results from various stock prices with a high degree of accuracy. The results are then used to form a stock portfolio on the basis of Goal Programming. This study has compared the optimization results with the real value of stock prices. The results obtained, Kalman filter-based Goal Programming is more effective for predicting future portfolios compared to the Goal Programming method with a return difference of Rp. 178,039,848. This suggests that optimization with the Kalman Filter-based Objective Programming can be used as a tool to determine future stock portfolios.