scholarly journals Macroeconomic announcements and stock returns in US portfolios formed on operating profitability and investment

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantinos Alexiou ◽  
Sofoklis Vogiazas ◽  
Abid Taqvi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Stock Portfolios ◽  
Macroeconomic Announcements ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Investment Level ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Stock Portfolio

The authors explore the reaction of US stock portfolio returns to macroeconomic announcements spanning the period from April 1998 to May 2017. Using daily returns of 25 portfolios formed on operating profitability and investment, the authors investigate the extent to which potential asymmetries permeate the stock portfolios following macroeconomic announcements. The three methodological approaches utilized in this study suggest that the ISM non-manufacturing index, employees on non-farm payrolls, retail sales, personal consumption expenditure and initial jobless claims have a significant impact on portfolio returns. Also, portfolios consisting of companies with higher operating profitability and investment level are found to be less responsive to announcements. As the particular area has received little currency over the years, this contribution is of great significance, because it provides insights into the reaction of returns in value-weighted portfolios to announcements on certain macro-indicators. At the same time, the study informs portfolio managers of the implications of macroeconomic news, which drive economic expectations and can reverberate through the expected returns in US stock portfolios.

Come together: trust, sociability and individual investors' stock-portfolio returns

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Stålnacke
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Portfolio Decisions ◽  
Portfolio Holdings ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Stock Portfolios ◽  
Stock Portfolio

PurposePrevious studies have found that trusting and sociable individuals are more likely to participate in the stock market and hold risky assets. The purpose of this paper is to explore if trust and sociability also are related to individual investors' stock-portfolio returns.Design/methodology/approachThe authors study the questions in the paper by linking survey measures of trust and sociability to investors' actual stock portfolios.FindingsThe authors find that trusting investors acquire higher raw and risk-adjusted stock-portfolio returns, but that the returns do not differ depending on how sociable investors are. These results suggest that trust is important for investors' stock-portfolio decisions, and that trusting investors tend to perform better in the stock market than less-trusting investors.Originality/valueThis is, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, the first paper that relates survey measures of trust and sociability to investors' actual stock-portfolio holdings. This is important to increase the understanding for how trust and sociability are related to the financial decisions individuals makes.

scholarly journals Risk-Return Analysis on Optimum Portfolio Selection of Islamic Stocks

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Siti Amaroh ◽  
Chanif Nasichah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Excess Return ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Closing Price ◽  
Stock Portfolio ◽  
Portfolio Return ◽  
Selection Of

<p><em>This study aims to determine the optimum portfolio category and analyze the risk-return on a formed portfolio. Data was taken from eighteen listed companies indexed by Jakarta Islamic Index during 2015-2018. Stock returns are calculated based on the closing price at the end of each month in the period. Sharia Certificate of Bank Indonesia is a proxy of risk-free return, while the market return is measured by the value of the Jakarta Islamic Index. Stocks are sorted by the value of excess return to beta (ERB) from highest to lowest, and to obtain optimal stock portfolio candidates, and the ERB value must be compared with the cut-off rate value. Seven issuers qualify for forming the optimum portfolio of shares. The results show that the optimum portfolio return is greater than the expected return and the expected risk-free return. When compared between individual stock returns and portfolio stock returns, some individual stocks provide higher returns than portfolio returns. However, the risk of individual shares was also higher than the risk of the portfolio. This finding proves that risk can be reduced optimally in Islamic stocks selection by forming an optimum portfolio.</em></p>

DAY-OF-THE-WEEK EFFECT IN US BIOTECHNOLOGY STOCKS — DO POLICY CHANGES AND ECONOMIC CYCLES MATTER?

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (02) ◽  
pp. 1650008
Author(s):  
SWARN CHATTERJEE ◽  
AMY HUBBLE
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Small Firm ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Trading Decisions ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Small Investors ◽  
Garch Processes ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Firm Effect ◽  
Daily Returns

This study examines the presence of the day-of-the-week effect on daily returns of biotechnology stocks over a 16-year period from January 2002 to December 2015. Using daily returns from the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (NBI), we find that the stock returns were the lowest on Mondays, and compared to the Mondays the stock returns were significantly higher on Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays. The day-of-the-week effect on returns of biotechnology stocks remained significant even after controlling for the Fama–French and Carhart factors. Moreover, the results from using the asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) processes reveal that momentum and small-firm effect were positively associated with the market risk-adjusted returns of the biotechnology stocks during this period. The findings of our study suggest that active portfolio managers need to consider the day of the week, momentum, and small-firm effect when making trading decisions for biotechnology stocks. Implications for portfolio managers, small investors, scholars, and policymakers are included.

Market reaction to scheduled and unscheduled news announcements under varying economic conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Parveshsingh Seeballack
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Equity Risk Premium ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Equity Risk ◽  
News Announcements

The unifying theme of this dissertation is the study of the role of macroeconomic news announcements in the context of the equity market. We focus on two important areas of the asset pricing theory, namely price discovery and equity risk premium forecasting. Chapter 2 investigates the time-varying sensitivity of stock returns to scheduled macroeconomic news announcements (MNAs) using high-frequency data. We present new insights into how efficiently stock returns incorporate the informational content of MNAs. We further provide evidence that the stock market response to MNAs is cyclical, and finally we conclude Chapter 2 with an investigation into the factors driving the time-varying sensitivity of stock return to MNAs. Chapter 3 investigates the time-varying sensitivity of stock returns in the context of unscheduled macroeconomic news announcements using high-frequency data. We investigate the speed and persistence in stock returns’ response to unscheduled macro-news announcements, and whether the reactions are dependent on the state of the economy, or general investor sentiment level. Combined, Chapters 2 and 3 provide interesting insights into how equity market participants react to the arrival of scheduled and unscheduled macro-announcements, under varying economic conditions. Chapter 4 focuses on equity risk premium forecasting. We investigate the predictive ability of option-implied volatility variables at monthly horizon, under varying economic conditions. We innovate by constructing monthly announcement and non-announcement option-implied volatility predictors and assess whether the monthly announcement option-implied volatility predictors contain additional information for better out-of-sample predictions of the monthly equity risk premium. Each of the three empirical chapters explores a unique aspect of the asset pricing theory in the context of the U.S. equity market.

scholarly journals A Balanced Portfolio Can Have a Higher Geometric Return than the Risky Asset

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 409
Author(s):  
Miriam Arden ◽  
Tiemen Woutersen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Stock Portfolios ◽  
Bond Portfolio ◽  
Target Date ◽  
Stock Portfolio ◽  
The U.S

In the U.S., the geometric return on stocks has been higher than the geometric return on bonds over long periods. We study whether balanced portfolios have a larger geometric return (and expected log return) than stock portfolios when the risk premium is low. We use a theoretical model and historical data and find that this is the case. This low-risk premium is often observed in other developed countries. Further, in the past two decades, a balanced portfolio with 70% or 90% invested in the U.S. stock market (with the remainder invested in U.S. government bonds) performed better than a 100% stock or bond portfolio. The reason for this is that a pure stock portfolio loses a large fraction of its value in a downturn. We show that this result is not driven by outliers, and that it occurs even when the returns are log normally distributed. This result has broad policy implications for the construction of pension systems and target-date mutual funds.

Optimization of Stock Portfolios Using Goal Programming Based on the Kalman-Filter Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-30
Author(s):  
Fauziyah ◽  
Evita Purnaningrum
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Goal Programming ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Filter Method ◽  
Stock Portfolios ◽  
Stock Investment ◽  
Kalman Filter Method ◽  
Return Difference ◽  
Stock Portfolio

Long-term stock investment development is carried out by means of portfolio optimization. Selection of stocks for portfolios is not only based on high-value stock prices but also takes into account their fluctuations. Estimation of future stock price fluctuations has an indirect impact on future portfolio formation. This research has implemented the Kalman filter method to obtain the best estimation results from various stock prices with a high degree of accuracy. The results are then used to form a stock portfolio on the basis of Goal Programming. This study has compared the optimization results with the real value of stock prices. The results obtained, Kalman filter-based Goal Programming is more effective for predicting future portfolios compared to the Goal Programming method with a return difference of Rp. 178,039,848. This suggests that optimization with the Kalman Filter-based Objective Programming can be used as a tool to determine future stock portfolios.

Long-term dependency between sovereign bonds and sectoral indices of India: evidence using Hurst exponent and wavelet analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Santanu Das ◽  
Ashish Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Hurst Exponent ◽  
Minimum Variance ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide a new way to optimize a portfolio and to show that combining the Hurst exponent and wavelet analysis may help to increase portfolio returns.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the Hurst exponent and wavelet analysis to study the long-term dependencies between sovereign bonds and sectoral indices of India. The authors further construct and evaluate the performance of three portfolios constructed on the basis of Hurst standard deviation (SD) – global minimum variance (GMV), most diversified portfolio (MDP) and equal risk contribution (ERC).FindingsThe authors find that an ERC portfolio generates positive superior return as compared other two. Since our sample includes periods of two crisis – post-2007 financial crisis and the ongoing pandemic, this study reveals that combining government bond with equities and gold provides a higher returns when the portfolios are constructed using the risk exposures of each asset in the overall portfolio risk.Practical implicationsThe findings provide guidance to portfolio managers by helping them to select assets using the Hurst approach and wavelet analysis thereby increasing the portfolio returns.Originality/valueIn this study, the authors use a combination of Hurst exponent and wavelet analysis to understand the long-term dependencies among various assets and provide a new methodology to optimize a portfolio. As far as the authors’ knowledge, no study in the past has attempted to provide a joint framework for portfolio optimization and therefore this study is the first to apply this methodology.

The Impact of Economic Sentiment, Consumer, Producer and Investor's Confidence Indices on Stock Returns of the Listed Companies in FTSE-20 in Greece

2018 ◽  
pp. 162-209
Author(s):  
Constantine Cantzos ◽  
Petros Kalantonis ◽  
Aristidis Papagrigoriou ◽  
Stefanos Theotokas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Behavioral Indicators ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter examines the relationship between stock returns of companies listed in the FTSE-20 on the Athens Exchange and behavioral indicators. The research is based on the behavioral APT model, which examines stock returns' risk factors through the involvement of macroeconomic variables and behavioral indicators. The data is the closing price of 17 shares listed in the FTSE-20 index, a number of macroeconomic variables, and a series of behavioral indicators for the period of January 2001-December 2014. Regressions were conducted with dependent variable stock returns of a portfolio invested equally in these 17 stocks. In addition, the research tests the existence of long-run and short-run equilibrium and causality. The change in the industrial production index along with the risk premium have a positive and significant impact on the portfolio returns. Johansen's test showed that there is a long-run equilibrium between stock returns, macroeconomic variables, and behavioral indicators. The VECM and VAR models showed that there is not long and short-run causality, not even Granger causality. No similar research has been conducted in Greece, thus it fills a literature gap.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic News, Order Flows, and Exchange Rates

2008 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 467-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Love ◽  
Richard Payne
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Order Flow ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Macroeconomic Announcements ◽  
Information Assimilation ◽  
Micro Level

AbstractIn textbook models of exchange rate determination, the news contained in public information announcements is directly impounded into prices with there being no role for trading in this process of information assimilation. This paper directly tests this theoretical result using transaction level exchange rate return and trading data and a sample of scheduled macroeconomic announcements. The main result of the paper is that even information that is publicly and simultaneously released to all market participants is partially impounded into prices via the key micro level price determinant—order flow. We quantify the role that order flow plays and find that approximately one third of price-relevant information is incorporated via the trading process.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norbert Funke ◽  
Akimi Matsuda
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Good News ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze similarities and differences in the impact of macroeconomic news on stock returns in the United States and Germany. We consider 27 different types of news for the United States and 12 different types of news for Germany. For the United States, we present evidence for asymmetric reactions of stock prices to news. In a boom (recession) period, bad (good) news on GDP growth and unemployment or lower (higher) than expected interest rates may be good news for stock prices. In the period under consideration there is little evidence for asymmetric effects in Germany. However, in the case of Germany, international news appears at least as important as domestic news. There is no evidence that US stock prices are influenced by German news. The analysis of bi-hourly data for Germany confirms these results.

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