scholarly journals Forecasting Of Criminality Problems Using Double Exponential Smoothing Method

Academia Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatikhul Ikhsan ◽  
Sumarno
Keyword(s):  
Social Action ◽  
Police Officers ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Legal Norms ◽  
The Public ◽  
Police Station ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

Crime is a form of social action that violates legal norms relating to acts of seizing property rights of others, disturbing public order and peace, and killing one or a group of people. This has always been a concern for residents in various places in the Ngoro sub-district, therefore this information system was created to help police officers to find out where crimes have occurred. This information sfystem was created to predict the area in Ngoro sub-district using the Double Exponential Smoothing method. So that this system can predict which areas in the next month there will be no crime, and can assist the public in reporting the occurrence of criminal acts without having to go to the police station first. The Double Exponential Smoothing method was chosen by the author because this method can be used. The data used is data on theft of crime from 2017 – 2019. The results of forecasting in one village in Ngoro sub-district such as Manduro are 0.07426431198 if rounded up to 0.1 which is categorized as low crime and has a MAPE value of 7.94%. Based on the MAPE value of the forecasting results, it can be concluded that a good constant is between 0.1 – 0.3.

scholarly journals Komparasi Metode Peramalan Jumlah Permintaan Kamar Hotel

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rendra Gustriansyah ◽  
Wilza Nadia ◽  
Mitha Sofiana
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Standard Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Single Exponential

<p class="SammaryHeader" align="center"><strong><em>Abstract</em></strong></p><p><em>Hotel is  a type of accommodation that uses most or all of the buildings to provide lodging, dining and drinking services, and other services for the public, which are managed commercially so that each hotel will strive to optimize its functions in order to obtain maximum profits. One such effort is to have the ability to forecast the number of requests for hotel rooms in the coming period. Therefore, this study aims to forecast the number of requests for hotel rooms in the future by using five forecasting methods, namely linear regression, single moving average, double moving average, single exponential smoothing, and double exponential smoothing, as well as to compare forecasting results with these five methods so that the best forecasting method is obtained. The data used in this study is data on the number of requests for standard type rooms from January to November in 2018, which were obtained from the Bestskip hotel in Palembang. The results showed that the single exponential smoothing method was the best forecasting method for data patterns as in this study because it produced the smallest MAPE value of 41.2%.</em></p><p><strong><em>Keywords</em></strong><em>: forecasting, linier regression, moving average, exponential smoothing.</em></p><p align="center"><strong><em>Abstrak</em></strong></p><p><em>Hotel merupakan jenis akomodasi yang mempergunakan sebagian besar atau seluruh bangunan untuk menyediakan jasa penginapan, makan dan minum serta jasa lainnya bagi umum, yang dikelola secara komersial, sehingga setiap hotel akan berupaya untuk mengoptimalkan fungsinya agar memperoleh keuntungan maksimum. Salah satu upaya tersebut adalah memiliki kemampuan untuk meramalkan jumlah permintaan terhadap kamar hotel pada periode mendatang. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan jumlah permintaan terhadap kamar hotel di  masa mendatang dengan menggunakan lima metode peramalan, yaitu regresi linier, single moving average, double moving average, single exponential smoothing, dan double exponential smoothing, serta untuk mengetahui perbandingan hasil peramalan dengan kelima metode tersebut sehingga diperoleh metode peramalan terbaik. Adapun data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data jumlah permintaan kamar tipe standar dari bulan Januari hingga November tahun 2018, yang diperoleh dari hotel Bestskip Palembang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode single exponential smoothing merupakan metode peramalan terbaik untuk pola data seperti pada penelitian ini karena menghasilkan nilai MAPE paling kecil sebesar 41.2%.</em></p><strong><em>Kata kunci</em></strong><em>: peramalan, regeresi linier, moving average, exponential smoothing.</em>

scholarly journals TOPSIS dan Double Exponential Smoothing untuk Perangkingan dan Peramalan Penjualan Laptop

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suto Sugiraharjo ◽  
Rina Candra Noor Santi
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Topsis Method ◽  
Data Mining Techniques ◽  
A Value ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

Problems that occur CV. Mustika Rajawali, which deals with laptop sales ranking and forecasting, is how to predict future laptop sales based on previous sales data. Forecasting is very influential in determining the sales target that must be achieved by CV. Mustika Rajawali. The method has not been used in predicting laptop sales at CV. Mustika Rajawali so that consumers' needs can be seen, whether it has met the sales target or not. The products to be developed in this study are laptop sales ranking and forecasting using the TOPSIS method and double exponential smoothing. To calculate the potential sales as accurately as possible, it can be done using data mining techniques using double exponential smoothing, while the TOPSIS method is used for ranking. Ranking of laptop sales using the TOPSIS method obtained the sales order of Asus A490JA laptops, Asus A409JP, Asus A409MA, Asus E402YA, Asus TP203NAH. Prediction of laptop sales at CV. Mustika Rajawali with a value of α = 0.1 to α = 0.9 obtained the smallest MAE value using α = 0.9, which is 178,237,067 so that the prediction of CV sales. Mustika Rajawali with the exponential smoothing method using a value of α = 0.9.

Implementasi Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dalam Memprediksi Pertambahan Jumlah Penduduk di Wilayah Kabupaten Karawang

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-103
Author(s):  
Andini Diyah Pramesti ◽  
Mohamad Jajuli ◽  
Betha Nurina Sari
Keyword(s):  
Population Distribution ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Population Numbers

The density and uneven distribution of the population in each area must be considered because it will cause problems such as the emergence of uninhabitable slums, environmental degradation, security disturbances, and other population problems. In the data obtained from the 2010 population census based on the level of population distribution in Karawang District, the area of West Karawang, East Karawang, Rengasdengklok, Telukjambe Timur, Klari, Cikampek and Kotabaru are zone 1 regions which are the densest zone with a population of 76,337 people up to 155,471 inhabitants. This research predicts / forecasting population growth in the 7 most populated areas for the next 1 year using Double Exponential Smoothing Brown and Holt methods. This study uses Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to evaluate the performance of the double exponential smoothing method in predicting per-additional population numbers. Forecasting results from the two methods place the Districts of East Telukjambe, Cikampek, Kotabaru, East Karawang, and Rengasdengklok in 2020 to remain in zone 1 with a range of 76,337 people to 155,471 inhabitants. Whereas in the Districts of Klari and West Karawang are outside the range in zone 1 because both districts have more population than the range in zone 1. From the results of MAPE both methods are found that 6 out of 7 districts in the method Holt's double exponential smoothing produces a smaller MAPE value compared to the MAPE value generated from Brown's double exponential smoothing method. It was concluded that in this study the Holt double exponential smoothing method was better than Brown's double exponential smoothing method.

scholarly journals Penerapan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Ganda dan Tripel Untuk Meramalkan Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara ke Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-41
Author(s):  
Aditya Pranata ◽  
Muhajir Akbar Hsb ◽  
Teuku Akhdansyah ◽  
Samsul Anwar
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Central Bureau ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

ABSTRAK. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi jumlah kunjungan wisatawan asing ke Indonesia pada tahun 2018 dengan menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Triple Exponential Smoothing. Data yang digunakan adalah jumlah kunjungan wisatawan asing ke Indonesia sejak Januari 2008 hingga Desember 2017 yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Indonesia. Hasil peramalan dengan menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing menunjukkan bahwa jumlah kunjungan wisatawan asing pada tahun 2018 akan meningkat sebesar 5,49%. Sedangkan berdasarkan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing, diperkirakan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan asing akan meningkat sebesar 6,89%. Dengan demikian, dapat disimpulkan bahwa akan ada peningkatan yang signifikan dalam jumlah kunjungan wisatawan asing ke Indonesia pada tahun 2018. ABSTRACT. This study aims to predict the number of foreign tourist visiting to Indonesia in 2018 using Double Exponential Smoothing and Triple Exponential Smoothing. The data used is the number of foreign tourist visiting to Indonesia since January 2008 to December 2017 that obtained from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The forecasting result using Double Exponential Smoothing method shows that the number of foreign tourist visiting in 2018 will increase by 5.49%. While based on Triple Exponential Smoothing method, it is estimated that the number of foreign tourists visiting will increase by 6.89%. Thus, it can be concluded that there will be a significant increase in the number of foreign tourist visiting to Indonesia in 2018.

scholarly journals Sistem Informasi Peramalan Persediaan Barang Menggunakan Metode SES Dan DES

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Ratih Yulia Hayuningtyas
Keyword(s):  
Medical Equipment ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Equal Weight ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Single Exponential

Abstract: Sales is an activity in selling products that provide information about inventory. Arga Medical is a shop engaged in the sale of medical equipment, many of sales transactions in the Arga Medical will affect the inventory. Problems in the Arga Medical is predicting many of product that must available for the next month. Therefore this research makes inventory information forecasting system using Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing method. This inventory forecasting information system will result a inventory forecasting for next month. Single Exponential Smoothing Method gives equal weight to each data while Double Exponential Smoothing method is smoothing twice. The Data used in this research is the sales data during 2016. Both of these methods resulted inventory forecasting in the next month is Januari 2017 of 52 with Single Exponential Smoothing and 60 with Double Exponential Smoothing. Each method has a Mean Square Error value the smallest error value is the best method for forecasting inventory. Keywords: Forecasting, Inventory, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing.

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