Forecasting Shoe Sales Volume with Exponential Smoothing Method at PT Kujang Utama Antasena - Bogor

PT Kujang Utama Antasena is a shoe industry company specifically for security. The purpose of this study is to forecast or predict sales. This study uses a quantitative method with exponential smoothing, smoothing factor/constant (?) of 0.2. In production activities, forecasting is carried out to determine the amount of demand for a product and is the first step of the production planning and control process to reduce uncertainty so that an estimate that is close to the actual situation is obtained. The exponential smoothing method is a moving average forecasting method that gives exponential or graded weights to the latest data so that the latest data will get a greater weight. In other words, the newer or more current the data, the greater the weight.

Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Moving Average pada Peramalan Permintaan Produk Gasket Cap di PT. Nesinak Industries

PT. Nesinak Industries is a company which focuses on the manufacturing process of an electronic component as well as automotive components (vehicle). In business activities, such as production, a strategy is required to survive in competition. Planning and forecasting are a strategy that can be implemented to accomplish these goals. In this study, the data used are previous sealing application data from January 2019 to March 2021. The objective of this study is to forecast product demand over the next period in order to be able to respond to customer demand. Data processing in this study utilize the Brown exponential double smoothing method and the moving average is then determined with the lowest MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value to be used for the company’s product demand prediction calculations. The value of taken from Brown's exponential dual smoothing method is the value of with the two lowest error values from 0.1 to 0.9, whose value with the least error value is = 0.8 and = 0.9. In terms of the moving average method, the researchers tested a period of three months and a period of four months. In the MAPE calculation, the results of exponential double smoothing = 0.8 of 26.92 %, exponential double smoothing = 0.9 of 26.22 %, moving average n = 3 of 32.46%, and moving average n = 4 of 34.77%.

Prediction of passenger train using fuzzy time series and percentage change methods

In the subject of railway operation, predicting railway passenger volume has always been a hot topic. Accurately forecasting railway passenger volume is the foundation for railway transportation companies to optimize transit efficiency and revenue. The goal of this research is to use a combination of the fuzzy time series approach based on the rate of change algorithm and the Holt double exponential smoothing method to forecast the number of train passengers. In contrast to prior investigations, we focus primarily on determining the next time period in this research. The fuzzy time series is employed as the forecasting basis, the rate of change is used to build the set of universes, and the Holt's double exponential smoothing method is utilized to forecast the following period in this case study. The number of railway passengers predicted for January 2020 is 38199, with a tiny average forecasting error rate of 0.89 percent and a mean square error of 131325. It can also help rail firms identify future passenger needs, which can be used to decide whether to expand train cars or run new trains, as well as how to distribute tickets.

PEMILIHAN PARAMETER OPTIMUM MENGGUNAKAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DENGAN METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK PERAMALAN JUMLAH TITIK PANAS DI KALIMANTAN TIMUR

The exponential smoothing method is one method that can be used to predict time series data by smoothing the data. In this study, the method used was exponential smoothing with one smoothing parameter from Brown. The data used is the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan from January 2019 to September 2019. The purpose of this study is to obtain the optimum smoothing parameter values for exponential smoothing from the results of the optimization process using the golden section method to minimize the MAPE value, to obtain forecasting results for each method in exponential smoothing for the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan from October to December 2019, and obtain a good exponential smoothing method to predict data on the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan. From this analysis, the researchers chose the methods used were DES and TES. The optimum smoothing parameter obtained at DES was 0,558430 and TES was 0,376352. The results of forecasting the number of hotspots obtained in DES in October were 2.142, November was 2.707, and December was 3.271 with a MAPE value of 95%. The TES method forecasting results were obtained in October as many as 2.193, November as much as 2.975, and December as many as 3.852 with a MAPE value of 108%. Based on the comparison of the MAPE values in the two methods, the DES method is better than the TES for calculating the predicted value of the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan, although the two methods are not yet suitable for handling this case.

Anti-sway method for reducing vibrations on a tower crane structure

We develop a solution to the problem of the behavior of a tower crane considered as a deformable system, and therefore subject to vibrations, whereas the controlled movement of a payload is implemented. The motion of the payload is calculated taking into account the normal vibration modes of the tower crane and the swaying of the payload. A “command smoothing” method relative to an open-loop system is used for reducing the sway of the payload, through smoothing the original command by the crane operator. This leads, as a consequence, to a reduction in the vibrations of the crane structure. An iterative calculation of the sway angle and the corresponding applied velocity profiles as input to the crane motors is applied. The tower crane is considered as a high nonlinear underactuated system; it is modeled considering the possible deformation of the structure. The results relating to the normal deformations of the crane are obtained, highlighting how these vibrations are strongly attenuated when an anti-sway system for the payload is implemented. Therefore, it is shown how this control leads to the best results in terms of performance for both the payload movement (shortest possible profile for the rotation movement and damping of the load oscillation) and the structure of the tower crane. Applying the method described in this paper, the structure of the tower crane does not undergo the strong horizontal and vertical oscillations that occur when the elastic structure is not considered in the crane model.

A New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global Mw ≥ 5.5 Seismicity

Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting models have been primarily studied and developed over the past twenty years. These models mainly rely on seismicity catalogs as their data source and provide forecasts in time, space, and magnitude in a quantifiable manner. In this study, we presented a technique to better determine future earthquakes in space based on spatially smoothed seismicity. The improvement’s main objective is to use foreshock and aftershock events together with their mainshocks. Time-independent earthquake forecast models are often developed using declustered catalogs, where smaller-magnitude events regarding their mainshocks are removed from the catalog. Declustered catalogs are required in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to hold the Poisson assumption that the events are independent in time and space. However, as highlighted and presented by many recent studies, removing such events from seismic catalogs may lead to underestimating seismicity rates and, consequently, the final seismic hazard in terms of ground shaking. Our study also demonstrated that considering the complete catalog may improve future earthquakes’ spatial forecast. To do so, we adopted two different smoothed seismicity methods: (1) the fixed smoothing method, which uses spatially uniform smoothing parameters, and (2) the adaptive smoothing method, which relates an individual smoothing distance for each earthquake. The smoothed seismicity models are constructed by using the global earthquake catalog with Mw ≥ 5.5 events. We reported progress on comparing smoothed seismicity models developed by calculating and evaluating the joint log-likelihoods. Our resulting forecast shows a significant information gain concerning both fixed and adaptive smoothing model forecasts. Our findings indicate that complete catalogs are a notable feature for increasing the spatial variation skill of seismicity forecasts.

scHiCSRS: A Self-Representation Smoothing Method with Gaussian Mixture Model for Imputing single-cell Hi-C Data

Motivation: Single-cell Hi-C techniques make it possible to study cell-to-cell variability in genomic features. However, excess zeros are commonly seen in single-cell Hi-C (scHi-C) data, making scHi-C matrices extremely sparse and bringing extra difficulties in downstream analysis. The observed zeros are a combination of two events: structural zeros for which the loci never inter- act due to underlying biological mechanisms, and dropouts or sampling zeros where the two loci interact but are not captured due to insufficient sequencing depth. Although quality improvement approaches have been proposed as an intermediate step for analyzing scHi-C data, little has been done to address these two types of zeros. We believe that differentiating between structural zeros and dropouts would benefit downstream analysis such as clustering. Results: We propose scHiCSRS, a self-representation smoothing method that improves the data quality, and a Gaussian mixture model that identifies structural zeros among observed zeros. scHiCSRS not only takes spatial dependencies of a scHi-C 2D data structure into account but also borrows information from similar single cells. Through an extensive set of simulation studies, we demonstrate the ability of scHiCSRS for identifying structural zeros with high sensitivity and for accurate imputation of dropout values in sampling zeros. Downstream analysis for three real datasets show that data improved from scHiCSRS yield more accurate clustering of cells than simply using observed data or improved data from several comparison methods.

Implementasi Metode Penghalusan Ekponensial Tunggal Dalam Prediksi Penjualan Buku

The prediction of the quantity of product sales in the future is intended to control the amount of existing product stock, so that product shortages or excess stock can be minimized. When the quantity of sales can be predicted accurately, the fulfillment of consumer demand can be sought on time and the cooperation of the store with the relationship is maintained well so that the store can avoid losing both sales and consumers. The purpose of this study is to compare the effectiveness of the use of the Single Exponential Smoothing method and methods Double Exponential Smoothing with a smoothing parameter value a = 0.5 for forecasting sales by comparing the error values in the two methods using the Mean Squared Error (MSE) method, the MSE results of the Single Exponential Smoothing method is 4967.75 while the MSE Double Exponential Smoothing is 5113.03. Thus, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is more accurate than Double Exponential Smoothing in calculating book sales forecasting because it has a low MSE value.