scholarly journals DETERMINANTS OF AGRICULTURE-RELATED LOAN DEFAULT: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 129-150
Author(s):  
Zhichao Yin ◽  
Lei Meng ◽  
Yezhou Sha
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Ownership Structure ◽  
Loan Default ◽  
Logit Regression ◽  
Quality Rating ◽  
Default Rate ◽  
Managerial Quality ◽  
Insight Into

This paper investigates agriculture-related loan default in 2002–2009 through a largedata set from a leading Chinese state-owned bank. Using logit regression, we findthe default rate on agriculture-related loans is significantly higher than that on non–agriculture-related loans. We find that base interest rates, loan maturity, the typeof collateral, firm size, ownership structure, and managerial quality rating have asignificant impact on agriculture-related loan default, but this also depends on howagriculture-related loans are defined. The results provide insight into the real impactof monetary policy on agriculture-related lending.

Prediction of Default Risk in Peer-to-Peer Lending Using Structured and Unstructured Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-129
Author(s):  
Jei Young Lee
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Peer To Peer ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Unstructured Data ◽  
Loan Default ◽  
Market Opportunities ◽  
Default Rate ◽  
Loan Interest Rates ◽  
Using Data

Using data from Lending Club, we analyzed funded loans between 2012 and 2013, the default status of which were mostly known in 2018. Our results showed that both the borrower characteristics and the conditions of the loan were significantly associated with the loan default rate. Results also showed that the sentiment of a user-written loan description influenced the borrower's loan interest rates. It contributes to expanding the scope of peer-to-peer (P2P) loan research by implementing unstructured data as a new model variable. Financial counselors need to consider the growth potential of the P2P loan market using data analysis: This will reveal niche market opportunities, enabling the development of services necessary for the safe supply of small loans at reasonable interest rates.

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

Perspectives on inflation Targeting Regime in Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 107-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indirect Control ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Private And Public

The paper analyzes monetary policy of the Bank of Russia from 2008 to 2014. It presents the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators testifying to inability of the Bank of Russia to transit to inflation targeting regime. It is shown that the presence of short-term interest rates in the top borders of the percentage corridor does not allow to consider the key rate as a basic tool of monetary policy. The article justifies that stability of domestic prices is impossible with-out exchange rate stability. It is proved that to decrease excessive volatility on national consumer and financial markets it is reasonable to apply a policy of managing financial account, actively using for this purpose direct and indirect control tools for the cross-border flows of the private and public capital.

Monetary policy regimes in Russia: Guidelines for furtherquantitative studies

2017 ◽  
pp. 38-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Pestova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Policy Effects ◽  
Exchange Rate Targeting ◽  
Basic Parameters

This paper analyzes the basic parameters of monetary policy in 2000-2015 in Russia. We provide the overview of tools and objectives of monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and identify the periods of homogeneity of monetary policy regimes: from money base targeting to exchange rate targeting and finally, to interest rates policy. On the basis of this research we develop the recommendations for further quantitative research aimed at estimation of monetary policy effects in Russia.

Interpreting the Reagan Deficits

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Sargent
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Reagan Administration ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Ronald Reagan ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Government Deficits ◽  
Tax Smoothing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

This chapter examines the large net-of-interest deficits in the U.S. federal budget that have marked the administration of Ronald Reagan. It explains the fiscal and monetary actions observed during the Reagan administration as reflecting the optimal decisions of government policymakers. The discussion is based on an equation whose validity is granted by all competing theories of macroeconomics: the intertemporal government budget constraint. The chapter first considers the government budget balance and the optimal tax smoothing model of Robert Barro before analyzing monetary and fiscal policy during the Reagan years: a string of large annual net-of-interest government deficits accompanied by a monetary policy stance that has been tight, especially before February 1985, and even more so before August 1982. Indicators of tight monetary policy are high real interest rates on government debt and pretax yields that exceed the rate of economic growth.

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