Long-term Changes of Waves at the German Baltic Sea Coast: Are There Trends from the Past?

2020 ◽  
Vol 95 (sp1) ◽  
pp. 1416
Author(s):  
Norman Dreier ◽  
Rain Männikus ◽  
Peter Fröhle
2016 ◽  
Vol 75 (sp1) ◽  
pp. 962-966 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenshan Xu ◽  
Norman Dreier ◽  
Yongping Chen ◽  
Peter Fröhle ◽  
Dongmei Xie

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 167
Author(s):  
Norman Dreier ◽  
Edgar Nehlsen ◽  
Peter Fröhle ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer ◽  
...  

In this study, the projected future long-term changes of the local wave conditions at the German Baltic Sea coast over the course of the 21st century are analyzed and assessed with special focus on model agreement, statistical significance and ranges/spread of the results. An ensemble of new regional climate model (RCM) simulations with the RCM REMO for three RCP forcing scenarios was used as input data. The outstanding feature of the simulations is that the data are available with a high horizontal resolution and at hourly timesteps which is a high temporal resolution and beneficial for the wind–wave modelling. A new data interface between RCM output data and wind–wave modelling has been developed. Suitable spatial aggregation methods of the RCM wind data have been tested and used to generate input for the calculation of waves at quasi deep-water conditions and at a mean water level with a hybrid approach that enables the fast compilation of future long-term time series of significant wave height, mean wave period and direction for an ensemble of RCM data. Changes of the average wind and wave conditions have been found, with a majority of the changes occurring for the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and at the end of the 21st century. At westerly wind-exposed locations mainly increasing values of the wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period have been noted. In contrast, at easterly wind-exposed locations, decreasing values are predominant. Regarding the changes of the mean wind and wave directions, westerly directions becoming more frequent. Additional research is needed regarding the long-term changes of extreme wave events, e.g., the choice of a best-fit extreme value distribution function and the spatial aggregation method of the wind data.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Floriaan Eveleens Maarse ◽  
Sonja Salovius‐Laurén ◽  
Martin Snickars
Keyword(s):  

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (7) ◽  
pp. 1739-1749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeynep Pekcan-Hekim ◽  
Anna Gårdmark ◽  
Agnes M. L. Karlson ◽  
Pirkko Kauppila ◽  
Mikaela Bergenius ◽  
...  

Abstract Climate change, eutrophication, and fishing are main pressures associated with changes in the abiotic and biotic environment in several sub-basins of the Baltic Sea. Identifying the nature of such changes is of relative importance for fisheries and environmental management. The Bothnian Bay is the northernmost sub-basin in the Baltic Sea and the responses of the foodweb to long-term changes in combined pressures have not been investigated. In this study, we explore long-term changes in the Bothnian Bay foodweb, represented by key species across all trophic levels over the past 34 years, and identify potential environmental and anthropogenic drivers. The results indicate that salinity is the most important driver to explain changes in the composition of the offshore biota in the Bothnian Bay. These changes are probably driven by indirect effects of salinity rather than bottom-up effects. A decline in the herring spawning-stock biomass was most plausibly attributed to an increased competition for food due to a parallel increase in vendace, which uses the same food resources (zooplankton and zoobenthos) and may benefit from declining salinity due to its limnic origin. A strong increase in the abundance of grey seal and ringed seal populations was seen in the late 2000s but was not related to any of the pressure variables analysed. Temperature and nutrients were not identified as important drivers of changes in the overall biota. Our study explores correlative relationships between variables and identifies potential interactions in the foodweb to generate hypotheses for further studies.


2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (12) ◽  
pp. 2735-2741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dörte Wagner ◽  
Birger Tinz ◽  
Hans von Storch

AbstractAt the German Meteorological Service in Hamburg, handwritten journals of meteorological observation data of 164 signal stations exist that were digitized. These data contain long-term time series of up to 125 years for the period 1877–1999 and allow for studies of regional meteorological conditions with greatly improved spatial resolution. Wind and air pressure data of selected signal stations along the German Bight and the southern Baltic Sea coast show a spatial data homogeneity that allows for an improved description of two historical storms, in 1906 and 1913. This is the first presentation of signal station data.


2011 ◽  
Vol 59 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 3-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Lampe ◽  
Elisabeth Endtmann ◽  
Wolfgang Janke ◽  
Hinrich Meyer

Abstract. Jüngere Pegeldaten aus dem nordostdeutschen Ostsee-Küstenraum legen nahe, dass die eustatische Komponente der gegenwärtigen Meeresspiegeländerung überlagert wird durch eine räumlich differenzierte nicht-eustatische, insbesondere glazial- isostatisch, Komponente. Um zu untersuchen, in welchem Maße die frühere Meeresspiegelentwicklung durch diese beiden Komponenten beeinflusst wurde, wurde versucht, diese so weit zurück zu verfolgen, wie dies die Mächtigkeit der marinen Küstensedimentfolgen erlaubte. Drei neue relative Meeresspiegelkurven wurden abgeleitet, wovon zwei hier zum ersten Mal präsentiert werden. Die Kurven basieren auf zahlreichen AMS-Radiokohlenstoff-Datierungen von Meeresspiegel-Indexpunkten wie Basistorfen, archäologischen Unterwasserfunden und Torfprofilen aus Küstenüberflutungsmooren. Obwohl der Indikationswert der Proben aus den Küstenmooren wegen deren möglicher Kompaktion fraglich ist, konnten zuverlässige Angaben durch den Abgleich von Daten aus unterschiedlichen Ablagerungsräumen gewonnen werden. Die drei abgeleiteten Meeresspiegelkurven überdecken den Zeitraum von 6000 bis 7000 v. Chr. bis zur Gegenwart und divergieren gleichmäßig mit zunehmendem Alter. Ein Uferlinienverschiebungsdiagramm zeigt, dass tektonische Ereignisse dieses räumliche Bewegungsmuster nicht signifikant beeinflusst haben. Für die Bestimmung der isostatischen Komponente wurden die Meeresspiegelkurven verglichen mit einer von Denys/Baeteman (1995) publizierten Kurve für die belgische Küste, die als tektonisch und isostatisch stabiler gilt. Der Verlauf dieser Kurve wird daher hauptsächlich von der eustatischen Komponente bestimmt. Der Vergleich legt nahe, dass der SW-Abschnitt der deutschen Ostseeküste gegenwärtig eine leichte Submergenz aufweist, möglicherweise infolge eines sich rückbildenden, glazial bedingten Randwulstes. Im zentralen Abschnitt ist die isostatische Bewegung vor wenigen Tausend Jahren ausgeklungen, im nördlichen Abschnitt hält sie dagegen immer noch an. Hier beträgt die maximale Hebung während der letzten 9000 Jahre etwa 6 m relativ zur belgischen Küste.


1975 ◽  
Vol 14 (70) ◽  
pp. 49-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. F. Nye ◽  
H. H. Wills

The displacement of the surface of an ice sheet and of markers set in its top layers can be measured geodetically, and also, it is expected, by radio-echo methods. The paper discusses how such measurements could be interpreted as showing long-term changes in the thickness of the ice sheet; in particular it discusses how one might design an experiment so as to avoid unwanted effects due to short-term changes in rate of accumulation. The analysis is similar to that of Federer and others (1970), but it corrects an error, so that when applied to their results for central Greenland it gives a different result for the lowering of the surface. Federer and others have already concluded that the average accumulation rates during the past 100 years have been below those needed to keep in balance with the velocity of the ice sheet as a whole. Using a particular model, it is found that this has resulted in the surface lowering at a mean rate of 0.050 m a−1 between 1871 and 1968, and a mean rate of 0.140 m a−1 between 1959 and 1968.


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