Statistical Forecasting : Third Wave of COVID-19-With an Application to India

The pandemic due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus impacted the entire world in different waves. An important question that arise after witnessing the first and second waves of COVID-19 is - Will the third wave also arrive and if yes, then when. Various types of methodologies are being used to explore the arrival of third wave. A statistical methodology based on the fitting of mixture of Gaussian distributions is explored in this paper and the aim is to forecast the third wave using the data on the first two waves of pandemic. Utilizing the data of different countries that are already facing the third wave, modelling of their daily cases data and predicting the impact and timeline for the third wave in India is attempted in this paper. The Gaussian mixture model based on algorithm for clustering is used to estimate the parameters.

Wave modelling in the oceans and in the regional seas: A critical look and perspective

The state-of-the-art in wave modelling is reviewed, with particular attention on the problems arising by its application in the regional seas. After giving a compact description of a spectral wave model, the different scales of application are discussed, highlighting the practical implications. The most relevant uses are described, with a critical analysis of the physical and numerical parts of a model. Then the relevance of the accuracy of the input wind fields is considered, stressing its importance for the accuracy of the derived wave results. The problems connected to wave forecasting are considered. The conclusions indicate expectations for further developments in the near future.

Dynamics of the Third wave, modelling COVID-19 pandemic with an outlook towards India

Since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has devastated human civilization throughout the earth. The pandemic is returning in different waves because of constant changes in the genetic components of the virus. Had we been able to predict the nature and timing of these waves earlier, numerous lives could, in essence, have been saved. It is evident that the situation has spiraled out of control in several countries for want of proper preventive measures. In this article, we described a comprehensive mathematical approach to understand the nature of the pandemic waves. Also, we determined the probable timing of the third wave that will help the concerned government(s) to take the necessary steps to better prepare for the unforeseen situation.