Prognostic Accuracy of the Eighth Edition of TNM Classification Compared with the Seventh and Sixth Edition for Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma
Abstract Background This study was conducted to evaluate and compare the prognostic value and performance of the 6th, 7th, and 8th editions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system when applied to patients undergoing surgery for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC). Methods Patients undergoing liver resection with curative intention for PHC between 2002 and 2019 were identified from a prospective database. Histopathological parameters and stage of the PHC were assessed according to the 6th, 7th, and 8th editions of the tumor node metastasis (TNM) classification. The prognostic accuracy between staging systems was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) model. Results Data for a total of 95 patients undergoing liver resection for PHC were analyzed. The median overall survival time was 21 months (95% CI 8.1–33.9), and the 3- and 5-year survival rates were 46.1% and 36.2%, respectively. Staging according to the 8th edition versus the 7th edition resulted in reclassification of 25 patients (26.3%). The log-rank p-values for the 7th and 8th edition were highly statistically significant (p ≤ 0.01) compared to the 6th edition (p = 0.035). The AJCC 8th edition staging system had a slightly better discrimination ability, with an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.52–0.84) compared to 0.61 (95% CI: 0.51–0.73) for the 7th edition. Multivariate survival analysis revealed male gender, age > 65 years, positive resection margins, presence of distant metastases, poorly tumor differentiation, lymph node involvement such as no caudate lobe resection as independent predictors of poor survival (p < 0.05). Conclusion The newly released 8th edition of the AJCC staging system demonstrated a poor to moderate ability to predict prognosis of patients undergoing liver resection for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma; the result was only slightly better than the previous 7th edition. Further refinements are needed to improve the prognostic ability of the AJCC staging system for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and to identify other prognostic factors that can potentially improve individual patient prognostication.