Abstract
BackgroundEffective tools evaluating the prognosis for patients with upper thoracic esophageal carcinoma is lacking. We aimed to develop a nomogram model to predict overall survival (OS) and construct a risk stratification system of upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients.MethodsNewly diagnosed 568 patients with upper thoracic ESCC at Fujian Medical University Cancer Hospital between February 2004 and December 2016 was taken as a training cohort, and additional 155 patients with upper ESCC from Sichuan Cancer Hospital Institute between January 2011 and December 2013 were used as a validation cohort. A nomogram was established using Cox proportional hazard regression to identify prognostic factors for OS. The predictive power of nomogram model was evaluated by using 4 indices: concordance statistics (C-index), time-dependent ROC (ROCt) curve, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate clinical usefulness of prediction models. Patients were categorized into three risk groups by X-tile software on the survival scores of the training cohort.ResultsMultivariate analysis revealed that gender, clinical T stage, clinical N stage and primary gross tumor volume (GTVp) were independent prognostic factors for OS in the training cohort. The nomogram based on these factors showed favorable prognostic efficacy in the both training and validation cohorts, with C-index of 0.622, 0.713, and AUC value of 0.709, 0.739, respectively, which appeared superior to those of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. In addition, NRI and IDI of the nomogram presented better discrimination ability to predict survival than those of AJCC staging. Furthermore, DCA curve of the nomogram exhibited greater clinical performance than that of AJCC staging. Finally, the nomogram fairly distinguished the OS rates among low, moderate, and high risk groups, whereas the OS curves of clinical stage could not be well separated among clinical AJCC stage. ConclusionsWe built an effective nomogram model for predict OS of upper thoracic ESCC, which may improve clinicians’ abilities to predict individualized survival and facilitate to further stratify the management of patients at risk.