Optimal Surveillance Strategies for Early-Stage Cutaneous Melanoma Post Primary Tumor Excision: An Economic Evaluation

Background. Consensus on standardized active surveillance or follow-up care by clinicians is lacking leading to considerable variation in practice across countries. An important structural modelling consideration is that self-examination by patients and their partners can detect melanoma recurrence outside of active surveillance regimes. Objectives. To identify candidate melanoma surveillance strategies for American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage I disease and compare them with the current recommended practice in a cost-utility analysis framework. Methods. In consultation with UK clinical experts, a microsimulation model was built in TreeAge Pro 2019 R1.0 (Williamstown, MA, USA) to evaluate surveillance strategies for AJCC stage IA and IB melanoma patients separately. The model incorporated patient behaviors such as self-detection and emergency visits to examine suspicious lesions. A National Health Service (NHS) perspective was taken. Model input parameters were taken from the literature and where data were not available, local expert opinion was sought. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis, one-way sensitivity analysis on pertinent parameters and value of information was performed. Results. In the base-case probabilistic sensitivity analysis, less intensive surveillance strategies for AJCC stage IA and IB had lower total lifetime costs than the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommended strategy with similar effectiveness in terms of quality-adjusted life years and thereby likely to be cost-effective. Many strategies had similar effectiveness due to the relatively low chance of recurrence and the high rate of self-detection. Sensitivity and scenario analyses did not change these findings. Conclusions. Our model findings suggest that less resource intensive surveillance may be cost-effective compared with the current NICE surveillance guidelines. However, to advocate convincingly for changes, better evidence is required.

Association between chemotherapy and prognostic factors of survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: a SEER population-based cohort study

Hepatectomy and transplantation are the main surgical therapies for HCC patients, and radiotherapy or chemotherapy is often used as adjuvant treatment. Researches have evaluated the independent predictors of HCC, but evidence for factors predicting the efficacy of chemotherapy is rare. Patients diagnosed with HCC between 2010 and 2015 from the SEER database were included and randomly divided into non-chemotherapy and chemotherapy groups. The predictors of CSS and OS were analyzed with the Cox proportional-hazards regression model and Fine and Gray’s competing risk model. Although there was no significant difference in survival analysis between the chemotherapy and non-chemotherapy groups, the cumulative cancer-specific mortality of most HCC patients was decreased in the chemotherapy group. AJCC stage, tumor size, grade, surgery and radiotherapy were predictors of OS and CSS in the non-chemotherapy group, while AJCC stage, tumor size, AFP, grade and surgery in the chemotherapy group. Surgery combined with chemotherapy was applicable to all AJCC stage patients. Surgery was the major treatment option for patients in AJCC I and AJCC II stage, and chemotherapy in AJCC III and AJCC IV stage. In conclusion, the study provided population-based estimates of the prognostic factors in HCC patients with or without chemotherapy.

Overall survival and prognostic factors prostate cancer in Kurdistan Province-Iran: a population-based study (2011-2018)

Background The population-based survival rate is affected by the quality and effectiveness of health care systems. Overall, the survival of prostate cancer (PC) patients has improved over the past two decades worldwide. This study aimed to determine the overall survival rate and correlate it with the prognostic factors in patients with PC diagnosed in Kurdistan province. Methods In a retrospective cohort study, 410 PC patients registered in Kurdistan province population-based cancer registry from March 2011 to 2018 were recruited. Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test were used to analyze the overall survival rates of PC patients. A Multivariate Cox regression model was used to determine adjusted hazard ratios for different variables. Results Of 410 patients with PC, 263 (64.1%) died within seven years due to the disease. The 1, 3, and 5 years survival rates were 93, 64.1, and 40.7%, respectively. According to the results of multiple Cox regression, the following factors were significantly related to PC survival: age at diagnosis (≥81-years old) (HR=2.23, 95% CI: 1.23-4.42) and 71-80 years old was (HR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.12-2.31), occupation (employee) (HR=0.42, 95% CI: 0.20–0.87), educational level: academic (HR=0.78, 95% CI: 0.64–0.91), AJCC stage of disease (HR=2.18, 95% CI: 1.9–3.68), Gleason score ≥ 9 (HR=7.12, 95% CI: 5.35–10.28), and Gleason score= 8 (HR=4.16, 95% CI: 2.50–6.93). There was less mortality rate among the patients who had received active care, radical prostatectomy, radiotherapy, combined treatment, and orchiectomy had a lower mortality rate than those who received no treatment (P<0.05). Conclusions This study demonstrated that factors such as age at diagnosis, level of education, occupation, AJCC stage of disease, Gleason score, and type of treatments were influential factors in the survival of PC patients in Kurdistan province and needed more attention.

Dynamic Nomogram Predicts Overall Survival in Patients With Occult Breast Cancer: a Population-based Analysis

Background: Due the rarity of occult breast cancer (OBC), no precise prognostic instruments were available to assess the overall survival (OS) in patients with OBC. The aim of this study is to construct a nomogram for predicting the OS probability in patients with OBC. Methods: Patients who were enrolled in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2015 were regarded as subjects and studied. We constructed a dynamic nomogram that can predict prognosis in patients with OBC based on crucial independent factors by using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. C-index and calibration plots were chosen for validation. Net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and DCA (Ddecision Curve Analysis) were used to evaluate the nomogram’s clinical pragmatism. Results: Totally, 693 patients with OBC were included in this study. The nomogram integrated six independent prognostic factors through multivariate Cox regression analysis, such as surgical method, radiotherapy status, chemotherapy status, ER status, AJCC-stage and age. The prediction model exhibited robustness with the C-index 0.75 (95%CI: 0.72-0.77) in training cohort and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.76-0.82) in validation group. Moreover, the calibration curves presented favorably. The NRI values of 0.61 (95%CI: 0.28-0.99) for 5-year,0.53 (95%CI: 0.23-0.77) for 8-year OS prediction in the training cohort,0.75 (95%CI: 0.36-1.23) for 5-year and 0.6 (95%CI: 0.15-1.2) for 8-year OS prediction in the validation cohort,and the IDI values of 0.1 (95%CI: 0.04-0.17) for 5-year and 0.11 (95%CI: 0.03-0.19) for 8-year OS prediction in the training cohort, 0.21 (95%CI: 0.09-0.3) for 5-year and 0.22 (95%CI: 0.08-0.32) for 8-year OS prediction in the validation cohort,, indicated that the established nomogram performed significantly better than the AJCC stage system alone. Furthermore, DCA showed that the nomogram in our study was clinically useful and had better discriminative ability than the AJCC stage system. Conclusions: A nomogram was developed and validated to accurately predict the individualized probability OS for patients with occult breast cancer (OBC) and is expected to offer guidance for strategic decision.

Nomogram for predicting postoperative cancer-specific early death in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer based on the SEER database: a large cohort study

Purpose Ovarian cancer is a common gynecological malignant tumor. Poor prognosis is strongly associated with early death, but there is no effective tool to predict this. This study aimed to construct a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific early death in patients with ovarian cancer. Methods We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database of patients with ovarian cancer registered from 1988 to 2016. Important independent prognostic factors were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression and LASSO Cox regression. Several risk factors were considered in constructing the nomogram. Nomogram discrimination and calibration were evaluated using C-index, internal validation, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results A total of 4769 patients were included. Patients were assigned to the training set (n = 3340; 70%) and validation set (n = 1429; 30%). Based on the training set, eight variables were shown to be significant factors for early death and were incorporated in the nomogram: American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, residual lesion size, chemotherapy, serum CA125 level, tumor size, number of lymph nodes examined, surgery of primary site, and age. The concordance indices and ROC curves showed that the nomogram had better predictive ability than the AJCC staging system and good clinical practicability. Internal validation based on validation set showed good consistency between predicted and observed values for early death. Conclusion Compared with predictions made based on AJCC stage or residual lesion size, the nomogram could provide more robust predictions for early death in patients with ovarian cancer.

Overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with breast Paget disease: A population-based study

Paget disease of the breast is an uncommon malignant tumor with an inferior outcome. Therefore, establishing nomograms to predict the survival outcomes of breast Paget disease patients is urgent. Clinicopathological and follow-up data of breast Paget disease patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 were retrieved through the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database. The significant factors were screened out, and then those factors were utilized to build two valuable nomograms. The discriminative ability of nomograms was investigated using concordance-index (C-index), while the predictive accuracy and benefits were evaluated using calibration curves and decision curve analysis. Finally, a total of 417 breast Paget disease patients were enrolled. Tumor grade, histological type, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and marital status were confirmed as independent overall survival (OS)-related factors; tumor grade, histological type, AJCC stage, and age were associated with independent cancer-specific survival (CSS)-related factors. The values of the C-index for OS nomogram acquired were 0.827 and 0.745 for training and validation cohorts, respectively. Meanwhile, the corresponding values of the C-index to CSS nomogram were 0.890 and 0.655, respectively. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis indicated that both nomograms had an excellent performance. Finally, the nomogram-based risk stratification system indicated that all breast Paget disease patients could be classified into low- and high-risk groups and showed distinct outcomes. In conclusion, two valuable nomograms incorporating various clinicopathological indicators were established for breast Paget disease patients. These prognostic nomograms provide accurate prognostic assessment for breast Paget disease patients and help clinicians select appropriate treatment strategies.

Clinicopathological factors associated with recurrence in patients undergoing resection of pancreatic solid pseudopapillary neoplasm

Purpose Solid pseudopapillary neoplasm (SPN) is an uncommon pathology with a low-grade malignancy. Surgery is the milestone treatment. Nevertheless, despite appropriate management, some patients present recurrence. Risk factors associated with recurrence are unclear. The objective was to identify the clinicopathological factors associated with recurrence in patients with SPN treated with pancreatic resection. Methods Medical records of patients treated with pancreatic resection during 2006–2020 were evaluated. Patients with histological diagnosis of SPN were included. Survival analysis was performed to identify the clinicopathological factors related to recurrence. Results Seventy-four patients were diagnosed with SPN; 70 (94.6%) patients were female, and the median age was 20 years old. The median tumor diameter was 7.9 cm. Multivisceral resection was performed in 9 (12.2%) patients. Four (5.4%) patients presented lymph node metastasis.R0 resection was achieved in all cases. Six (8%) patients presented recurrence and the liver was the most frequent recurrence site (n = 5).After a median follow-up of 40.2 months, 9 (12%) patients died. Five (6.8%) patients died of disease progression. The 1–3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) was 97.1%, 90.2% and 79.9%, respectively. The 1–3-and-5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) was 98.4%, 89.9% and 87%, respectively. In the univariate Cox-regression analysis, age ≥ 28 years(HR = 8.61, 95% CI 1.1–73.8),tumor diameter ≥ 10 cm(HR = 9.3, 95% CI 1.12–79.6),invasion of adjacent organs (HR = 7.45, 95% CI 1.5–36.9), lymph node metastasis (pN +) (HR = 16.8, 95% CI 2.96–94.9) and, AJCC Stage III (HR = 10.1, 95% CI 1.2–90.9) were identified as predictors for recurrence. Conclusions SPN is more frequently diagnosed in young women with a good overall prognosis after an R0 surgical resection even with disease recurrence. Age ≥ 28 years, larger tumors ≥ 10 cm, invasion of adjacent organs, lymph node metastasis(pN +) and, AJCC Stage III were predictors factors of recurrence in resected SPN.

The Influence of Different Treatment Strategies on the Long-Term Prognosis of T1 Stage Esophageal Cancer Patients

ObjectiveTo compare the long-term prognosis effects of non-esophagectomy and esophagectomy on patients with T1 stage esophageal cancer.MethodsAll esophageal cancer patients in the study were included from the National Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2005-2015. These patients were classified into non-esophagectomy group and esophagectomy group according to therapy methods and were compared in terms of esophagus cancer specific survival (ECSS) and overall survival (OS) rates.ResultsA total of 591 patients with T1 stage esophageal cancer were enrolled in this study, including 212 non-esophagectomy patients and 111 esophagectomy patients in the T1a subgroup and 37 non-esophagectomy patients and 140 esophagectomy patients in the T1b subgroup. In all T1 stage esophageal cancer patients, there was no difference in the effect of non-esophagectomy and esophagectomy on postoperative OS, but postoperative ECSS in patients treated with non-esophagectomy was significantly better than those treated with esophagectomy. Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis showed that the risk factors affecting ECSS included race, primary site, tumor size, grade, and AJCC stage but factors affecting OS only include tumor size, grade, and AJCC stage in T1 stage patients. In the subgroup analysis, there was no difference in either ECSS or OS between the non-esophagectomy group and the esophagectomy group in T1a patients. However, in T1b patients, the OS after esophagectomy was considerably better than that of non-esophagectomy.ConclusionsNon-esophagectomy, including a variety of non-invasive procedures, is a safe and available option for patients with T1a stage esophageal cancer. For some T1b esophageal cancer patients, esophagectomy cannot be replaced at present due to its diagnostic and therapeutic effect on lymph node metastasis.

The prognostic value of lymph node ratio in comparison to positive lymph node count in penile squamous cell carcinoma

Purpose Penile cancer is a rare male neoplasm with a wide variation in its global incidence. In this study, the prognostic value of lymph node ratio (LNR) was compared to that of positive lymph node count (PLNC) in penile squamous cell carcinoma. Methods A total of 249 patients with penile squamous cell carcinoma were enrolled from The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015. The X-tile program was used to calculate the optimal cut-off values of LNR and PLNC that discriminate survival. We used the χ2 or the Fisher exact probability test to assess the association between clinical-pathological characteristics and LNR or PLNC. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors for survival. Spearman correlation analysis was used to determine the correlation between LNR and PLNC. Results We found that patients with high LNR tended to have advanced N stage, the 7th AJCC stage, and higher pathological grade, while patients with high PLNC had advanced N stage and the 7th AJCC stage. Univariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the N stage, M stage, the 7th AJCC stage, lymph-vascular invasion, LNR, and PLNC were significantly associated with prognosis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that LNR rather than PLNC was an independent prognostic factor for cancer-specific survival. Subgroup analysis of node-positive patients showed that LNR was associated with CSS, while PLNC was not. Conclusion LNR was a better predictor for long-term prognosis than PLNC in patients with penile squamous cell carcinoma.

Association between chemotherapy and prognostic factors of survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: a SEER population‑based cohort study

Background Hepatectomy and transplantation are the main surgical therapies for HCC patients, and radiotherapy or chemotherapy is often used as the adjuvant treatment. Researches have evaluated the independent predictors of HCC, but evidence for factors predicting the efficacy of chemotherapy is rare. Methods Patients diagnosed with HCC between 2010 and 2015 from the SEER database were included and randomly divided into non-chemotherapy and chemotherapy groups. The predictors of CSS and OS were analyzed with the Cox proportional-hazards regression model and Fine and Gray’s competing risk model. Results Although there was no significant difference in survival analysis between the chemotherapy and non-chemotherapy groups, the cumulative cancer-specific mortality of most HCC patients were decreased in chemotherapy group. AJCC stage, tumor size, grade, surgery and radiotherapy were predictors of OS and CSS in non-chemotherapy group, while AJCC stage, tumor size, AFP, grade and surgery in chemotherapy group. Surgery combined with chemotherapy was applicable to all AJCC stage patients. Surgery was the major treatment option for patients in AJCC Ⅰ and AJCC Ⅱ stage, and chemotherapy in AJCC Ⅲ and AJCC Ⅳ stage. Conclusions In conclusion, the study provided population-based estimates of the prognostic factors in HCC patients with or without chemotherapy.