Reducing regional inequality in community-based treatment of childhood pneumonia in Ethiopia: A sub-national distributional cost-effectiveness analysis
Abstract Background Scaling up coverage of community-based treatment of childhood pneumonia (CCM) is part of the strategy to promote equity and reduce under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in Ethiopia. However, urban children with symptoms of pneumonia are still more than twice as likely to receive treatment compared with rural children having similar symptoms. There are no sub-national cost-effectiveness analyses available to inform decision makers on the most equitable scale-up strategy. Objectives To model sub-national cost-effectiveness and inequality impacts of scaling up coverage of CCM in each of the 11 Ethiopian regions. We also explore three different scale-up strategies: reducing geographical inequalities, health maximization and universal scale-up. Methods For each region, we developed a Markov model and estimated the cost-effectiveness of scaling up coverage to 90 percent. Data inputs were collected through literature review. Effects were modeled as life years gained and under-five deaths averted. Inputs on unit costs were adjusted to the proportions of rural and urban population in each region. In scenario analysis, we estimated costs, health effects and, by the use of the Gini measure applied to health, the inequality impacts of three different scale-up strategies: 1) maximizing health by prioritizing the regions where the intervention was the most cost-effective, 2) reducing geographical inequality by prioritizing the regions with the highest baseline U5MR and 3) universally scaling up to 90% coverage in all the regions. Results Universal scale-up of CCM would cost about 1.3 billion USD and prevent about 90,000 under-five deaths. This is less than 15,000 USD per life saved and translates to an increase in life expectancy at birth of 1.6 years across Ethiopia. The regional incremental-cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of scaling up the intervention coverage varied from 26 USD per life year gained in Addis to 199 USD per life year gained in the SNNP region. In scenario analysis, we found that prioritizing regions with high U5MR is effective in reducing geographical inequalities, although at the cost of some fewer lives saved. Conclusions Our model results illustrate a trade-off between maximizing health and reducing health inequalities, two common policy-aims in low-income settings.