lkj & fiNys 14 o"kksZa ds nkSjku yxkrkj gqbZ vPNh ekulwu o"kkZ&_rq ds ckn Hkkjr esa o"kZ 2002 esa Hkh"k.k lw[kk iM+kA ;gk¡ rd fd ekfld le; eku ij Hkh 19 oha 'krkCnh ds e/; ls ysdj vc rd ds fjdkMZ ds bfrgkl esa tqykbZ dk eghuk o"kkZ dh n`f"V ls cgqr gh [kjkc eghuk jgk ftlesa vf[ky Hkkjrh; iSekus ij o"kkZ ds izfr’kr dk varj lkekU; ls 51-5 izfr’kr de jgkA ,d vU; egRoiw.kZ fo’ks"krk ;g jgh fd fiNys 133 o"kksaZ esa igyh ckj lEiw.kZ nf{k.kh if’peh ekulwu _rq ds nkSjku ,d Hkh vonkc vFkok pØokrh rwQku ugha cukA Hkkjr esa ekulwu dbZ&dbZ fnuksa dh vo:)rk ds lkFk yxkrkj vkxs c<+kA 1960 ds ckn ls igyh ckj ,slk gqvk gS fd lqnwj mÙkjh&if’peh Hkkjr esa ekulwu] _rq ds iwok)Z esa ugha igq¡pkA
bl 'kks/k&i= esa o"kZ 2002 ds nkSjku ekulwu ds fofHkUu y{k.kksa dh fo’ks"krkvksa tSls fd ekulwu dk vkjEHk] mldk vkxs c<+uk] :duk] fofHkUu flukWfIVd vkSj v)Z LFkk;h y{k.kksa rFkk nf{k.kh if’peh ekulwu o"kkZ _rq dh fo’ks"krkvksa dk foospu fd;k x;k gSA bu fo’ks"krkvksa dh rqyuk igys iMs+ lw[ks ds o"kksZa dh fo’ks"krkvksa ds lkFk dh xbZ gSA tqykbZ 2002 ds nkSjku ekulwu o"kkZ dh Hkh"k.k deh ds laHkkfor dkj.kksa dk irk yxkus ds fy, fgan & iz’kkar ¼baMksislsfQd½ {ks= esa c`grLrjh; vkSlr ekfld vlkekU; egklkxjh; vkSj ok;qeaMyh; fLFkfr;ksa dh tk¡p dh xbZ gSA
bl v/;;u ls izkIr gq, ifj.kkeksa ls ;g irk pyrk gS fd cgqr lh vlkekU; vkSj fof’k"V izdkj dh fo’ks"krkvksa ds dkj.k o"kZ 2002 ds nkSjku iwjs Hkkjr esa lw[kk iM+kA bl v/;;u ls ;g Hkh irk pyrk gS fd vuqdwy varjk&ekSleh {ks=h; fo’ks"krkvksa tSls fd ekulwu fo{kksHkksa vkSj v)Z LFkk;h ra=ksa] vR;ar ean yks ysoy tsV dh fo|ekurk] izcy e/; v{kka’kh; if’peh gokvksa ds izHkko] {ks= esa pØokr cuus dh vR;kf/kd vko`fr ds lkFk ekulwu _rq ds eghuksa ds nkSjku iz’kkar egklkxjh; fuuksa 4 {ks= esa vR;kf/kd m".k rhozrk ds lkFk ean ls lkekU; ,y fuuksa dk cuuk ,sls eq[; dkj.k gSa ftuds ifj.kkeLo:i tqykbZ ds eghus esa o"kkZ dh vR;kf/kd deh gqbZ gSA
India experienced severe drought in the year 2002 after 14 consecutive years of good monsoon. On the monthly time scale, July had the worst rainfall in the recorded history of monsoon dating back to middle of nineteenth century when the country as a whole registered rainfall deficiency of 51.5%. Another notable feature was that for the first time in the last 133 years, not a single depression or cyclonic storm formed during the whole southwest monsoon season. The advance of monsoon over India was accompanied with frequent as well as prolonged stagnations. The monsoon failed to arrive for the first time in extreme northwest India during the first half of the season since 1960.
In the present study, various features of monsoon such as onset, progress, stagnation, different synoptic and semi-permanent features and characteristics of rainfall of southwest monsoon in 2002 over India have been discussed. A comparison of these features with those in the earlier drought years has been made. Large-scale mean monthly anomalous ocean and atmospheric conditions over Indo-Pacific region have also been investigated to find out the possible causes for drastic failure of the monsoon during July 2002.
Results show that many abnormal and unique features during 2002 have resulted into all India drought. Study also shows that absence of favourable regional intra-seasonal features like monsoon disturbances and semi-permanent systems, presence of very weak low level jet, penetration of strong mid-latitude westerlies, weak to moderate El-Nino with most intense warming over Nino 4 region of Pacific Ocean during monsoon months together with higher frequency of typhoon formation over the region are the main causes that led to one of the highly pronounced rainfall deficiencies in the month of July.
Skill Evaluation of Extended-Range Forecasts of Rainfall and Temperature over the Meteorological Subdivisions of India
