S&P 500 Index Option Surface Drivers and their Real World and Risk Neutral Covariations

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dilip B. Madan
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Index Option

scholarly journals A NOTE ON REAL-WORLD AND RISK-NEUTRAL DYNAMICS FOR HEATH–JARROW–MORTON FRAMEWORKS

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (03) ◽  
pp. 2050020
Author(s):  
DAVID CRIENS
Keyword(s):  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Real World ◽  
Random Measure ◽  
Jump Condition ◽  
Poisson Random Measure ◽  
Change Of Measure ◽  
The Real ◽  
Infinite Dimensional ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Equivalent Change Of Measure

We show that for time-inhomogeneous Markovian Heath–Jarrow–Morton models driven by an infinite-dimensional Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure an equivalent change of measure exists whenever the real-world and the risk-neutral dynamics can be defined uniquely and are related via a drift and a jump condition.

Closed-form Transformations from Risk-neutral to Real-world Distributions

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoquan Liu ◽  
Mark B. Shackleton ◽  
Stephen J. Taylor ◽  
Xinzhong Xinzhong Xu
Keyword(s):  
Closed Form ◽  
Real World ◽  
Risk Neutral

Do the Option Prices Forecast Spot Price? Evidence from the KOSPI 200 Index Option Market

2011 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-280
Author(s):  
Byungwook Choi
Keyword(s):  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Option Prices ◽  
Daily Rate ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Index Option

This study investigates a forecasting power of volatility curvatures and risk neutral densities implicit in KOSPI 200 option prices by analyzing minute by minute historical index option intraday trading data from January of 2007 to January of 2011. We begin by estimating implied volatility functions and risk neutral price densities based on non-parametric method every minute and by calculating volatility curvature and skewness premium. We then compare the daily rate of return of the signal following trading strategy that we buy (sell) a stock index when the volatility curvature or skewness premium increases (decreases) with that of an intraday buy-and-hold strategy that we buy a stock index on 9:05AM and sell it on 2:50PM. We found that the rate of return of the signal following trading strategy was significantly higher than that of the intraday buy-and-hold strategy, which implies that the option prices have a strong forecasting power on the direction of stock market. Another finding is that the information contents of option prices disappear after three or four minutes.

A class of complete benchmark models with intensity-based jumps

2004 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eckhard Platen
Keyword(s):  
Probability Measure ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Real World ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Market Models ◽  
Growth Optimal Portfolio ◽  
Conditional Expectations ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Security Price ◽  
Value Pricing

This paper proposes a class of complete financial market models, the benchmark models, with security price processes that exhibit intensity-based jumps. The benchmark or reference unit is chosen to be the growth-optimal portfolio. Primary security account prices, when expressed in units of the benchmark, turn out to be local martingales. In the proposed framework an equivalent risk-neutral measure need not exist. Benchmarked fair derivative prices are obtained as conditional expectations of future benchmarked prices under the real-world probability measure. This concept of fair pricing generalizes the classical risk-neutral approach and the actuarial present-value pricing methodology.

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