Probabilitt reali e probabilitt neutrali al rischio nella stima del valore futuro degli strumenti derivati (Real-World and Risk-Neutral Probabilities in Estimating the Future Value of Derivative Instruments)

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Giordano ◽  
Giovanni Siciliano
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Derivative Instruments ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
The Future ◽  
Risk Neutral Probabilities ◽  
Future Value

Smart Estimation Ver-H.1.0

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sigit Haryadi
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Weight Factor ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Value ◽  
The Difference

We cannot be sure exactly what will happen, we can only estimate by using a particular method, where each method must have the formula to create a regression equation and a formula to calculate the confidence level of the estimated value. This paper conveys a method of estimating the future values, in which the formula for creating a regression equation is based on the assumption that the future value will depend on the difference of the past values divided by a weight factor which corresponding to the time span to the present, and the formula for calculating the level of confidence is to use "the Haryadi Index". The advantage of this method is to remain accurate regardless of the sample size and may ignore the past value that is considered irrelevant.

The time that money requires: Use of the future and critique of the present in financial valuation

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-113
Author(s):  
Fabian Muniesa ◽  
Liliana Doganova
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Financial Valuation ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
Future Value ◽  
Philosophical Implication ◽  
Sociology Of Finance ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Political Technology

The future is persistently considered in the sociology of finance from two divergent, problematic angles. The first approach consists in supplementing financial reasoning with an acknowledgement of the expectations that are needed in order to cope with an uncertain future and justify the viability of investment decisions. The second approach, often labelled critical, sees on the contrary in the logic of finance a negation of the future and an exacerbation of the valuation of the present. This is an impasse the response to which resides, we suggest, in considering the language of future value, which is indeed inherent to a financial view on things, as a political technology. We develop this argument through an examination of significant episodes in the history of financial reasoning on future value. We explore a main philosophical implication which consists in suggesting that the medium of temporality, understood in the dominant sense of a temporal progression inside which projects and expectations unfold, is not a condition for but rather a consequence of the idea of financial valuation.

Applications of Operations Research in Human Resource Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1611-1614
Author(s):  
Vanya Aggarwal
Keyword(s):  
Human Resource Management ◽  
Human Resource ◽  
Real World ◽  
Operations Research ◽  
Operational Research ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
External World ◽  
Future Plan ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Path

Abstract: Operational HR encompasses the highly visible, day-to-day tactical operations required to keep a workforce running. This made us look for strategic approaches essential for most organisations. Be it defining the future path, determining the future plan, mission, vision, planning, objectives and goals of a particular organization. In a nutshell, we wanted to bring out the intricate relationship between HR and operational research especially considering the current dynamics of the external world. The unprecedented changes in HRM made us dig deeper on the importance of the role and applications of operations research to cope with these changes. Finally, we believed our research was complete when we presented real-world examples, and it was demonstrated to us that Operations Research approaches may assist firms in making good HR policy decisions at a low cost

Eula Bingham—Experience Bares “The Real World” and Smart Politics Saves Lives

2009 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-93
Author(s):  
Mary Lee Dunn ◽  
Polly Hoppin ◽  
Beth Rosenberg
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Occupational Safety And Health ◽  
Professional Life ◽  
Health Administration ◽  
The Real ◽  
Safety And Health ◽  
Look Back ◽  
The Future

Eula Bingham, toxicologist and former head of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, is now at that place in her professional life where she can look back over her long career and identify its turning points and evaluate what worked and what didn't, what was important and what of lesser significance. In two interviews, she also looks at the present and the future and expresses concerns about the way we live now.

scholarly journals A method of constructing syllable level Tibetan text classification corpus

2021 ◽  
Vol 336 ◽  
pp. 06013
Author(s):  
Jizhaxi Dao ◽  
Zhijie Cai ◽  
Rangzhuoma Cai ◽  
Maocuo San ◽  
Mabao Ban
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Text Classification ◽  
Real World ◽  
Processing Technique ◽  
Construction Method ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Corpus Construction ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Real World Applications ◽  
The Future

Corpus serves as an indispensable ingredient for statistical NLP research and real-world applications, therefore corpus construction method has a direct impact on various downstream tasks. This paper proposes a method to construct Tibetan text classification corpus based on a syllable-level processing technique which we refer as TC_TCCNL. Empirical evidence indicates that the algorithm is able to produce a promising performance, which may lay a starting point for research on Tibetan text classification in the future.

scholarly journals Exploratory Choice Reflects the Future Value of Information

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Rich ◽  
Todd Matthew Gureckis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Relative Frequency ◽  
Value Of Information ◽  
Exploration And Exploitation ◽  
Expected Number ◽  
Uncertain Environments ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Conflicting Evidence ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Value

The tension between exploration and exploitation is a primary challenge in decision making under uncertainty. Optimal models of choice prescribe that individuals resolve this tension by evaluating how information gained from their choices will improve future choices. However, research in behavioral economics and psychology has yielded conflicting evidence about whether people consider the future during exploratory choice, particularly in complex, uncertain environments. Adding to the empirical evidence on this issue, we examine exploratory decision making in a novel approach-avoid paradigm. In the first set of experiments we find that people parametrically increase their exploration when the expected number of future encounters with a prospect is larger. In the second we demonstrate that when the number of future encounters is unknown, as is often the case in everyday life, people are sensitive to the relative frequency of future encounters with a prospect. Our experiments show that people adaptively utilize information about the future when deciding to explore, a tendency that may shape decisions across several real-world domains.

scholarly journals A STRUCTURAL RISK-NEUTRAL MODEL OF ELECTRICITY PRICES

2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (07) ◽  
pp. 925-947 ◽  
Author(s):  
RENÉ AÏD ◽  
LUCIANO CAMPI ◽  
ADRIEN NGUYEN HUU ◽  
NIZAR TOUZI
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Structural Aspect ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Forward Contracts ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Modeling Methodology ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Risk Neutral Probabilities ◽  
Crude Approximation ◽  
Forward Prices

The objective of this paper is to present a model for electricity spot prices and the corresponding forward contracts, which relies on the underlying market of fuels, thus avoiding the electricity non-storability restriction. The structural aspect of our model comes from the fact that the electricity spot prices depend on the dynamics of the electricity demand at the maturity T, and on the random available capacity of each production means. Our model explains, in a stylized fact, how the prices of different fuels together with the demand combine to produce electricity prices. This modeling methodology allows one to transfer to electricity prices the risk-neutral probabilities of the market of fuels and under the hypothesis of independence between demand and outages on one hand, and prices of fuels on the other hand, it provides a regression-type relation between electricity forward prices and forward prices of fuels. Moreover, the model produces, by nature, the well-known peaks observed on electricity market data. In our model, spikes occur when the producer has to switch from one technology to the lowest cost available one. Numerical tests performed on a very crude approximation of the French electricity market using only two fuels (gas and oil) provide an illustration of the potential interest of this model.

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