Carbon Taxes and Corporate Tax Reform

Author(s):  
Donald B. Marron ◽  
Eric J. Toder
2007 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 440-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilbert E. Metcalf

Significance Corporate tax may be one area where it could be possible to find some common ground between the otherwise gridlocked Republican Congress and the Democratic White House. President Barack Obama has proposed a one-time repatriation tax on cash held overseas by companies to be followed by a full-spectrum tax code overhaul. Impacts Lobbyists may support a repatriation amnesty, but will obstruct any initiative that raises effective tax rates. European Commission independence from member states may see the EU lead on corporate tax investigations. Australia will move slowly on corporate tax reform if the coalition government remains distracted by leadership disputes.


Significance On July 15, the House of Representatives passed a short-term funding measure, against the wishes of many in the Senate. US infrastructure is facing a fiscal crunch. Taxes on gasoline have traditionally supported highway appropriations. However, eroding purchasing power and greater fuel efficiency means that about 30% of highway funding must be found from other sources, difficult in the current Congress. The present round of appropriations expires on July 31. Impacts A corporate tax might provide a long-term resolution, but the pursuit of it would come at the cost of seeking more modest solutions. These would provide stability for a year or two, necessary for projects of long duration. If corporate tax reform is not completed before the end of 2015, it will probably not get done in a presidential election year. If Congress were to rely on the prospect of these taxes for the HTF, it might find itself in a similar position in a few months.


Subject US economic outlook. Significance US equity markets have rallied and the dollar has strengthened against the euro since President Donald Trump was elected in November 2016 -- largely on expectations that stimulative policies will be introduced. One of Trump's campaign promises pledged to reform corporate taxes and lower tax rates, which would be expected to boost capital spending. He also pledged to raise infrastructure spending by 1 trillion dollars over ten years, as well as to reduce regulatory burdens to help jumpstart business investment. Impacts Trump could use executive powers in a more sweeping fashion if he cannot deliver changes via legislation. US opposition to reforms of international financial institutions could reduce the momentum behind global cooperation. If the proposal to finance the 1-trillion-dollar infrastructure plan by public-private partnerships is a success, 2018 GDP will benefit. If agreed by 2018 or 2019, corporate tax reform could boost GDP growth although the impact could be diluted if other countries follow suit.


Subject Prospects for US corporate tax reform Significance The US administration is growing increasingly anxious for legislative successes, focusing attention on whether Congressional Republicans can deliver on their promise of corporate tax reform. Sustained business confidence and buoyant stock markets suggest businesses remain hopeful, but as Congress gets to work on reforming the tax code, intra-party rifts will increasingly reveal themselves. Impacts Senate debate on healthcare reform saw many controversies arise; a similar course looks unavoidable for corporate tax reform. Stock markets might celebrate a simple and temporary tax cut, but bond investors would flee from the prospect of a wider budget deficit. Other countries would likely react with their own cuts; widespread low rates mean that tax already has less influence on a firm’s location. Losing control of the House of Representatives in the November 2018 mid-term elections would make reform trickier for the Republicans.


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