Impact of Commodity Index Investments on Agricultural Commodity Price Increases Over 2006-2011 Period

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Velmurugan Palanipappa Shanmugan ◽  
Paul W Armah
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Price Increases

scholarly journals Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflict? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
GRAEME BLAIR ◽  
DARIN CHRISTENSEN ◽  
AARON RUDKIN
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effect ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks

Scholars of the resource curse argue that reliance on primary commodities destabilizes governments: price fluctuations generate windfalls or periods of austerity that provoke or intensify civil conflict. Over 350 quantitative studies test this claim, but prominent results point in different directions, making it difficult to discern which results reliably hold across contexts. We conduct a meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments that use difference-in-difference designs to estimate the causal effect of commodity price changes on armed civil conflict. We show that commodity price changes, on average, do not change the likelihood of conflict. However, there are cross-cutting effects by commodity type. In line with theory, we find price increases for labor-intensive agricultural commodities reduce conflict, while increases in the price of oil, a capital-intensive commodity, provoke conflict. We also find that price increases for lootable artisanal minerals provoke conflict. Our meta-analysis consolidates existing evidence, but also highlights opportunities for future research.

scholarly journals Bubbles in Agricultural Commodity Markets of China

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi-Xi Zhang ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Chi-Wei Su ◽  
Ran Tao ◽  
Oana-Ramona Lobonţ ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Multiple Bubbles ◽  
Market Fundamentals

We employ the generalized supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller test to examine whether there are multiple bubbles in Chinese agricultural commodities. The proposed approach is suitable for time series data and identifies the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. The results indicate the existence of bubbles for some agricultural commodity prices, such as garlic, ginger, corn, and wheat prices, that deviate from their intrinsic values upon market fundamentals. The bubbles in the garlic and ginger market are related to speculative activities. The other bubbles, in the corn and wheat market, are associated with the rising oil price, international market, and the negative effect of stockpiling policy. The authorities should recognize bubbles and observe their evolutions, leading to Chinese agricultural commodity price stabilization. These findings suggest corresponding measures to be implemented. China should establish a unified market information release platform to avoid speculative activities and formulate a market-oriented agricultural policy to enhance competitiveness among the international markets.

scholarly journals On the Dynamic Relationship between U.S. Farm Income and Macroeconomic Variables

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungho Baek ◽  
Won W. Koo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of changes in macroeconomic variables—agricultural commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates—on the U.S. farm income. For this purpose, we adopt an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration with quarterly data for 1989–2008. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the long-ran behavior of U.S. farm income, but has little effect in the short-run. We also find that the commodity price and interest rate have been significant determinants of U.S. farm income in both the short- and long-run over the past two decades.

scholarly journals Contractionary Investment Policies in China 1988/89: Accounting for the Implementation Difficulties and Successes

1999 ◽  
Vol 160 ◽  
pp. 881-918 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carsten A. Holz
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Central Committee ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Investment Policies ◽  
Republic Of China ◽  
Social Instability ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Party Central Committee

In the past twenty years the People's Republic of China has undergone four marked periods of overheating as measured by output and price rises. While the 1980 bout of inflation was primarily a result of planned price increases, inflation in 1985/86, 1988/89, and 1993–95 increasingly reflected underlying market imbalances as prices had been liberalized and production decisions decentralized. Inflation was experienced as most severe in the 1988/89 period when the inflation rate climbed rapidly to levels – since the early years of the PRC unprecedented – above 20 per cent in mid-1988. Panic purchases in summer 1988 because of expected further price rises spread to several cities and inflation became tantamount to “social instability.” The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee strongly voiced its concern about the “stable and healthy economic development” in a communiqué on 30 September 1988: “At present, our overall economic situation is good, but the difficulties and problems are numerous, the most prominent being the excessively large commodity price rises.” Party and central government in 1988 felt compelled to stop economic overheating in order to prevent further panic purchases and rises in the inflation rate which would endanger social stability.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Impact of Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 162-174
Author(s):  
Adeyemi A. Ogundipe ◽  
Omobola Adu ◽  
Oluwatomisin M. Ogundipe ◽  
Abiola J. Asaleye
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuations ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Agricultural Prices ◽  
Commodity Price Volatility ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
Macroeconomic Aggregates

Introduction: The Nigerian economy has remained consistently heavily dependent on earnings from commodity exports which constitute over 95% external earning and 85% of budgetary and fiscal financing. Agricultural commodity exports have witnessed a significant price swings in the international market in the past few decades resulting in food price hike and macroeconomic distortions in economies heavily dependent on food imports. Methods and Materials: The study assesses the macreoconomic impact of agricultural commodity price volatility in Nigeria from 1970-2017 using Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) cointegration and Impulse-Response Function (IRF) analysis. The study adopted an atheoretical statistics to ascertain the evidence of swings in macroeconomic aggregates. Results: There was evidence of persistent fluctuations in the macroeconomic variables observed, implying that external price shocks exert a significant impact on the macroeconomic management, since bulk of national budgetary and fiscal financing is from commodity exports. Conclusion: The study found that volatile agricultural prices were responsible for a meager 2% of macroeconomic fluctuations. The empirical evidence corroborates the statistics showing that the share of agriculture in primary commodity exports has consistently remained less than 3% since the advent of crude oil. Furthermore, the study found that the swings in agricultural prices impacts foreign reserves and inflation more significantly and earlier in the time horizons than other macroeconomic aggregates.

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