scholarly journals Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflict? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
GRAEME BLAIR ◽  
DARIN CHRISTENSEN ◽  
AARON RUDKIN
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effect ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks

Scholars of the resource curse argue that reliance on primary commodities destabilizes governments: price fluctuations generate windfalls or periods of austerity that provoke or intensify civil conflict. Over 350 quantitative studies test this claim, but prominent results point in different directions, making it difficult to discern which results reliably hold across contexts. We conduct a meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments that use difference-in-difference designs to estimate the causal effect of commodity price changes on armed civil conflict. We show that commodity price changes, on average, do not change the likelihood of conflict. However, there are cross-cutting effects by commodity type. In line with theory, we find price increases for labor-intensive agricultural commodities reduce conflict, while increases in the price of oil, a capital-intensive commodity, provoke conflict. We also find that price increases for lootable artisanal minerals provoke conflict. Our meta-analysis consolidates existing evidence, but also highlights opportunities for future research.

scholarly journals A meta-analysis of natural resources and conflict

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 205316801881823 ◽  
Author(s):  
William O’Brochta
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Aggregate Effect ◽  
Resource Wealth ◽  
Natural Resource Wealth ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Variable Measurement

The relationship between natural resource wealth and civil conflict remains unclear, despite prolonged scholarly attention. Conducting a meta-analysis—a quantitative literature review—can help synthesize this broad and disparate field to provide clearer directions for future research. Meta-analysis tools determine both the aggregate effect of natural resources on conflict and whether any particular ways in which variables are measured systematically bias the estimated effect. I conduct a meta-analysis using sixty-nine studies from sixty-two authors. I find that there is no aggregate relationship between natural resources and conflict. Most variation in variable measurement does not alter the estimated effect. However, measuring natural resource wealth using Primary Commodity Exports and including controls for mountainous terrain and ethnic fractionalization all do significantly impact the results. These findings suggest that it may be worth exploring more nuanced connections between natural resources and conflict instead of continuing to study the overall relationship.

scholarly journals Food and Energy Price Shocks: What Other Prices Are Affected?

2011 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Todd E. Clark ◽  
Saeed Zaman
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks

Sharp rises in energy and other commodity prices have recently ignited concerns about inflation. Will these price increases spill over to other prices more generally? We study the typical responses of different price shocks and assess whether the recent behavior of producer and consumer prices is consistent with historical norms. Our analysis shows that the behavior of various producer and consumer prices since late 2009 has generally matched up with historical patterns. Overall, our findings suggest that effects of the recent energy and commodity price shocks on core consumer prices will be modest going forward.

Real exchange rate misalignment and civil conflict: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dessie Tarko Ambaw ◽  
Nicholas Sim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks ◽  
Exchange Rate Misalignment ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Do So

Abstract Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation of the actual RER from its equilibrium, occurs frequently in developing countries. In this article, we show that civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) can be influenced by RER misalignment. To do so, we construct an RER misalignment index whose variation is driven by shocks to each country’s RER fundamentals. Based on a panel of 35 countries from 1975 to 2006, we find that RER misalignment may increase the incidence of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa on average. Crucially, this effect is present even when rainfall and commodity price shocks—two widely acknowledged causes of civil conflict—are controlled for. Therefore, our article suggests that RER stabilization can foster political stability in the region.

Chasing the Anchor: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Perceptual Anchoring Deficits in Developmental Dyslexia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt D Shulver ◽  
Nicholas A Badcock
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Reading Ability ◽  
English Language ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Visual Assessment ◽  
Individual Performance ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Significant Heterogeneity ◽  
Eligibility Criteria

We report the results of a systematic review and meta-analysis investigating the relationship between perceptual anchoring and dyslexia. Our goal was to assess the direction and degree of effect between perceptual anchoring and reading ability in typical and atypical (dyslexic) readers. We performed a literature search of experiments explicitly assessing perceptual anchoring and reading ability using PsycInfo (Ovid, 1860 to 2020), MEDLINE (Ovid, 1860 to 2019), EMBASE (Ovid, 1883 to 2019), and PubMed for all available years up to June (2020). Our eligibility criteria consisted of English-language articles and, at minimum, one experimental group identified as dyslexic - either by reading assessment at the time, or by previous diagnosis. We assessed for risk of bias using an adapted version of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Six studies were included in this review, but only five (n = 280 participants) were included in the meta-analysis (we were unable to access the necessary data for one study).The overall effect was negative, large and statistically significant; g = -0.87, 95% CI [-1.47, 0.27]: a negative effect size indicating less perceptual anchoring in dyslexic versus non-dyslexic groups. Visual assessment of funnel plot and Egger’s test suggest minimal bias but with significant heterogeneity; Q (4) = 9.70, PI (prediction interval) [-2.32, -0.58]. The primary limitation of the current review is the small number of included studies. We discuss methodological limitations, such as limited power, and how future research may redress these concerns. The variability of effect sizes appears consistent with the inherent variability within subtypes of dyslexia. This level of dispersion seems indicative of the how we define cut-off thresholds between typical reading and dyslexia populations, but also the methodological tools we use to investigate individual performance.

Autobiographical Memory Impairments as a Transdiagnostic Feature of Mental Illness: A meta-analysis of autobiographical memory specificity and overgenerality amongst people with psychiatric diagnoses

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Joseph Barry ◽  
David John Hallford ◽  
Keisuke Takano
Keyword(s):  
Autobiographical Memory ◽  
Memory Retrieval ◽  
Keyword Search ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Psychiatric Diagnoses ◽  
Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders ◽  
Memory Impairments ◽  
Memory Specificity ◽  
Causal Mechanisms

Decades of research has examined the difficulty that people with psychiatric diagnoses, such as Major Depressive Disorder, Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders, and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, have in recalling specific autobiographical memories from events that lasted less than a day. Instead, they seem to retrieve general events that have occurred many times or which occurred over longer periods of time, termed overgeneral memory. We present the first transdiagnostic meta-analysis of memory specificity/overgenerality, and the first meta-regression of proposed causal mechanisms. A keyword search of Embase, PsycARTICLES and PsycINFO databases yielded 74 studies that compared people with and without psychiatric diagnoses on the retrieval of specific (k = 85) or general memories (k = 56). Multi-level meta-analysis confirmed that people with psychiatric diagnoses typically recall fewer specific (g = -0.864, 95% CI[-1.030, -0.698]) and more general (g = .712, 95% CI[0.524, 0.900]) memories than diagnoses-free people. The size of these effects did not differ between diagnostic groups. There were no consistent moderators; effect sizes were not explained by methodological factors such as cue valence, or demographic variables such as participants’ age. There was also no support for the contribution of underlying processes that are thought to be involved in specific/general memory retrieval (e.g., rumination). Our findings confirm that deficits in autobiographical memory retrieval are a transdiagnostic factor associated with a broad range of psychiatric problems, but future research should explore novel causal mechanisms such as encoding deficits and the social processes involved in memory sharing and rehearsal.

Challenges and Opportunities for Neuroimaging in Young Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury: a Coordinated Effort towards Advancing Discovery from the ENIGMA Pediatric Moderate/Severe TBI Group

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily L. Dennis ◽  
Karen Caeyenberghs ◽  
Robert F. Asarnow ◽  
Talin Babikian ◽  
Brenda Bartnik-Olson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Traumatic Brain Injury ◽  
Brain Injury ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Young Patients ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Childhood And Adolescence ◽  
Developmental Issues ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Severe Tbi ◽  
Advance Research

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major cause of death and disability in children in both developed and developing nations. Children and adolescents suffer from TBI at a higher rate than the general population; however, research in this population lags behind research in adults. This may be due, in part, to the smaller number of investigators engaged in research with this population and may also be related to changes in safety laws and clinical practice that have altered length of hospital stays, treatment, and access to this population. Specific developmental issues also warrant attention in studies of children, and the ever-changing context of childhood and adolescence may require larger sample sizes than are commonly available to adequately address remaining questions related to TBI. The ENIGMA (Enhancing NeuroImaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis) Pediatric Moderate-Severe TBI (msTBI) group aims to advance research in this area through global collaborative meta-analysis. In this paper we discuss important challenges in pediatric TBI research and opportunities that we believe the ENIGMA Pediatric msTBI group can provide to address them. We conclude with recommendations for future research in this field of study.

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