scholarly journals Bubbles in Agricultural Commodity Markets of China

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi-Xi Zhang ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Chi-Wei Su ◽  
Ran Tao ◽  
Oana-Ramona Lobonţ ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Multiple Bubbles ◽  
Market Fundamentals

We employ the generalized supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller test to examine whether there are multiple bubbles in Chinese agricultural commodities. The proposed approach is suitable for time series data and identifies the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. The results indicate the existence of bubbles for some agricultural commodity prices, such as garlic, ginger, corn, and wheat prices, that deviate from their intrinsic values upon market fundamentals. The bubbles in the garlic and ginger market are related to speculative activities. The other bubbles, in the corn and wheat market, are associated with the rising oil price, international market, and the negative effect of stockpiling policy. The authorities should recognize bubbles and observe their evolutions, leading to Chinese agricultural commodity price stabilization. These findings suggest corresponding measures to be implemented. China should establish a unified market information release platform to avoid speculative activities and formulate a market-oriented agricultural policy to enhance competitiveness among the international markets.

scholarly journals Determinants of Industrial Sector Growth in Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol IV (III) ◽  
pp. 61-70
Author(s):  
Mujib Ur Rahman ◽  
Amtul Hafeez ◽  
Wisal Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Negative Effect

A strong industrial sector shows greater economic growth. To find industrial growth, this study hereby made an attempt. Time series data is used. Data is obtained from the years 1984 to 2018. The stationarity of the series is checked through Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF). Moreover, the ARDL approach is used to check short and long-run estimation of the model, estimating the determinants of the industrial sector growth in Pakistan. A long-run positive and significant associations between External debt (% of GDP), GDP (Annual Growth), FDI, Remittances (% of GDP) is identified, while trade has a negative effect on industrial growth. The factor remittances have an insignificant but positive influence on the industrial sector growth.

scholarly journals Commodity prices and stock market performance in South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 370-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Itumeleng Pleasure Mongale ◽  
Joel Hinaunye Eita
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

As an export based economy, commodity prices and stock market performances are always a course for concern in the South African economy. This paper investigates the effects of the commodity prices and selected macroeconomic variables on stock market performance. The paper uses quarterly time series data and the estimation covers the period 1994 to 2013. Using Engle-Granger two steps econometric technique, the underlying series are tested for univariate characteristics of the variables unit root by employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test statistics. The findings show that an increase in commodity prices is associated with an increase in stock market performance and there is a positive association between stock market and macroeconomic such as money supply and exchange rate in South Africa.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 105-111
Author(s):  
Khujan Singh ◽  
Anil Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Implication ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
First Order ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Directional Relation ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Vecm Granger Causality

The present study is an attempt to examine long run relationship among India’s GDP, Exports and Imports for which yearly time series data from 1995 to 2018 has been collected. Data for India’s GDP has been collected from RBI website and India’s export and import data has been collected form Ministry of Commerce and Industry website. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test for stationarity found that studied variables become stationary at first order of difference. While, Johnson cointegration test revealed long run cointegration between India’s GDP, exports and imports. The results of VECM Granger causality test exhibited bi-directional relationship between India’s GDP and India’s exports, whereas uni-directional relation has been found between India’s GDP and India’s imports. These results have significant implication for India’s export import policy and to achieve a target of $5 trillion economy till 2024-2025.

Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-112
Author(s):  
Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Tan Siew Ee ◽  
Sushant Vaidik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Paper Cover ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.

scholarly journals PENGARUH KONSUMSI ENERGI DAN REZIM TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 401
Author(s):  
Zakiah Husna ◽  
Idris Idris
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Regime ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to determine the effect of energy consumption and regime on economic growth in Indonesia. The data used is secondary data in the form of time series data from 1988-2017, with documentation and library study data collection techniques obtained from relevant institutions and agencies. the variables used are economic growth (GDP), non-renewable energy consumption, renewable energy consumption and regime, the research methods used are: (1) Multiple Regression Analysis (OLS), (2) Classical Assumption Test results of research stating that: ( 1) non-renewable energy consumption has a positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia. (2) consumption of renewable energy has a positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia. (3) the energy regime has a negative effect on economic growth in Indonesia. (4) non-renewable energy consumption, renewable energy consumption and energy regime have a significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia. so only the energy regime has a negative effect on economic growth in Indonesia.

scholarly journals PENGARUH KORUPSI, DEMOKRASI DAN POLITIK TERHADAP KEMISKINAN DI DELAPAN NEGARA ASEAN DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI SEBAGAI VARIABEL MODERASI

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 845
Author(s):  
Yolanda Yolanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Predictor Variable ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Transparency International ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims the influence of corruption, democracy and politics on poverty in ASEAN countries with economic growth as a moderating variable. The method used is using the panel regression model. This data uses a combination method between time series data from 2013 - 2016 and a cross section consisting of 8 countries. Data obtained from World Bank annual reports, Transparency International and Freedom House. The results of this study indicate that (1) Corruption Perception Index (CPI) has a significant and negative effect on poverty, meaning that if the CPI increases then poverty will decrease (2) Democracy has no significant and negative effect on poverty. This means that if democracy increases, poverty will decrease (3) Politics has a significant and negative effect on poverty, meaning that if politics increases, poverty will decrease (4) Economic growth has a significant and positive effect on poverty, meaning if economic growth increases then poverty will decline (3) Economic growth unable to moderate the relationship between corruption, democracy and politics towards poverty in 8 ASEAN countries. Economic growth as an interaction variable is a predictor variable (Predictor Moderate Variable), which means that economic growth is only an independent variable.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Rasio Kinerja Bank Terhadap Profitabilitas Industri Bank Umum Syariah di Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 217
Author(s):  
Felix Efendy ◽  
Salman Fathoni
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

The purpose of this study was to determine and analyze the effect of the level of bank health ratios measured by BOPO, FDR and NPF on increasing the profitability of the Sharia Commercial Bank industry in Indonesia, which is proxied by ROA. The data used in this study are secondary data including operational efficiency (BOPO), liquidity (FDR), Non Performing Finance (NPF) and Return On Assets (ROA) in the sharia commercial bank industry registered at Bank Indonesia. The data is a monthly time series data from 2015-2018 obtained through the official sharia banking statistics website, Financial Services Authority (https://www.ojk.go.id). To analyze it, researchers used a multiple linear regression model with statistical tool software EViews 9. From the observations and analysis of the data that has been done, the conclusions in this study are the BOPO, FDR and NPF on ROA which is an indicator of the Bank's health to measure profitability has a high relationship . The BOPO variable partially has a significant negative effect on profitability (ROA). FDR partially has a negative and significant effect on ROA. NPF partially has no positive effect on profitability.

scholarly journals Determinant of Mudharabah Financing: A Study at Indonesian Islamic Rural Banking

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erika Amelia ◽  
Eva Fauziah Hardini
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Revenue Sharing ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Linear Regressions

This study aims to determine the variables that affect the financing in the Islamic rural banking in Indonesia. The data used in this study is a monthly time series data that is from June 2009 until June 2015 in the monthly financial statements Islamic Banking Statistics published by Bank Indonesia. The analytical method used in this research is multiple linear regressions. The results of data analysis showed that the variables simultaneously deposit fund, capital adequacy ratio, inflation, exchange rate and the level of revenue sharing significantly influence the composition of financing. Partially deposit funds and the exchange rate significant positive effect, while capital adequacy ratio had a negative effect. Variable inflation and the level of revenue sharing do not significantly influence the composition of financing. This result implies that Islamic rural banking should increase the deposit funds to increase the mudaraba financing.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v16i1.4638 

Analisis pengaruh makroekonomi terhadap dana pihak ketiga (DPK) dengan equivalent rate (ER) sebagai variabel intervening

2021 ◽  
pp. 100-123
Author(s):  
Salma Firdayanti Salma ◽  
Yusvita Nena Arinta Nena
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Equivalent Rate ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Party Funding

This study aims to determine the Effect of Macroeconomics on Third-Party Funding (TPF) with the Equivalent Rate (ER) as the Intervening Variable (Case Study of Islamic Commercial Banks Period 2016-2020). This type of research is quantitative research which utilizes secondary data in the form of time-series data. Purposive sampling was used as the sampling method. The data that has been obtained later processed using the E-views version 9 application tool. Based on the results, it is shown that the Inflation, BI Rate, and Equivalent Ratevariables partially have a negative effect on TPF, while the Exchange Rate has a positive effect on TPF. Moreover, the variables of Inflation, Exchange Rate, and BI Rate have a positive and significant effect on the Equivalent Rate (ER). It is also found thatThe Equivalent Rate variable cannot mediate the effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, and BI Rate on TPF.

scholarly journals Do natural rubber price bubbles occur?

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 67-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Wei Su ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Ran Tao ◽  
Oana-Ramona Lobonţ
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Multiple Bubbles ◽  
Market Fundamentals ◽  
The Stability

In this paper, we employ the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test in order to identify the existence of multiple bubbles in natural rubber. This approach is practical for the using of time series and identifies the beginning and end points of multiple bubbles. The results reveal that there are five bubbles, where exist the divergences between natural rubber prices and their basic values on account of market fundamentals. The five bubbles are related to imbalance between supply and demand, inefficiencies of smallholders market, oil prices, exchange rate and climatic changes through analyses. Thus, the corresponding authorities are supposed to identify bubbles and consider their evolutions, which is beneficial to the stability of natural rubber price.

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