THE PRICE OF AGRICULTURAL LAND, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE COST OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES OF SOILS

According to the latest data of the State Service of Ukraine for Geodesy, Cartography and Cadastre on the normative monetary valuation of farmland in the regions of Ukraine, the results of calculations of the minimum and maximum initial price of agricultural land in Ukraine are given, as well as the average cost per hectare, which is almost one and a half times higher than their approximate starting value, announced with the opening of the domestic land market. The classification of factors of change of the price of hectare of agricultural land structured in three groups is proposed and accordingly specified: i) general factors of formation of the price of agricultural lands; ii) factors of price increase; iii) factors reducing the price of agricultural land. For the first time, such a factor in the formation of the price of agricultural land as the amount of income from the consumption of ecosystem services is presented and revealed. The importance of this factor is proved by the results of monetary assessment of the contribution of two types of ecosystem services of agricultural soils of local ecosystem assets of the Mykolayiv Oblast: regulatory services for soil carbon retention provided by the soils of lands of natural growth of agricultural crops, and providing services for the supply of crops provided by the soils of agricultural lands.. The results of hypothetical extrapolation of the value of the contribution of the providing ecosystem service for crop supply, which produced by chernozem soils of agricultural lands of the ecosystem assets of the territorial community of Semenivka village of Mykolayiv Oblast to the size of the initial value of agricultural lands of the regional ecosystem assets of the Mykolayiv Oblast are given. As a result, a much more expensive, but more realistic indicative price per hectare of land for the region is obtained, taking into account the amount of income from the use of such an ecosystem service of chernozem soil. It is concluded that there is a strong potential for growth of agricultural prices in the regions of Ukraine, as well as the actual unpreparedness of the starting price positions of the land market in Ukraine, primarily due to inconsistency of the current initial land price with objective socio-economic realities.

Deep Learning Based Models: Basic LSTM, Bi LSTM, Stacked LSTM, CNN LSTM and Conv LSTM to Forecast Agricultural Commodities Prices

The literature argues that an accurate price prediction of agricultural goods is a quintessence to assure a good functioning of the economy all over the world. Research reveals that studies with application of deep learning in the tasks of agricultural price forecast on short historical agricultural prices data are very scarce and insist on the use of different methods of deep learning to predict and to this reaction of filling the gap, this study employs five versions of LSTM deep learning techniques for the task of five agricultural commodities prices prediction on univariate time series dataset of Rice, Wheat, Gram, Banana, and Groundnut spanning January 2000 to July 2020. The study obtained good forecasting results for all five commodities employing all the five LSTM models. The study validated the results with lower values of error metrics, MAE, MAPE, MSE, and RMSE and two paired t-test with hypothesis and confidence level of 95% as a measure of robustness. The study predicted the one month ahead future price for all the five commodities and compared it with actual prices using said LSTM models and obtained promising results.

Testing the absorber hypothesis of exchange rates for the overshooting of agricultural prices in China

This study aims to test the overshooting effect of agricultural prices and the absorber hypothesis of exchange rates by extending the existing overshooting model. Using a combination of modern time series methods and monthly aggregate data from China, we demonstrate that overshooting of agricultural prices does indeed occur since the impact of monetary expansion on flexible agricultural prices is significantly larger than on relatively sticky industrial prices. Granger causality tests confirm that monetary expansion is a possible determinant of the movements of both agricultural and industrial prices, thus providing a solid empirical foundation for the overshooting hypothesis. Our findings also confirm the absorber hypothesis, in that the overshooting effect of agricultural prices under a fixed exchange rate regime (ERR) is shown to be greater than that under a floating ERR. The main policy implication is that policymakers should pay attention to the spillover effect of monetary expansion on agricultural prices when adjusting macroeconomic policies, especially under a fixed ERR.

Market integration as a determinant of agricultural prices and economic results of small-scale family farms

Due to the specific features of the land factor, under market conditions, there is a tendency towards income deprivation of farms in relation to their surroundings. One way to improve this situation is to create a system of market institutions for farmer-recipient transactions. The issue of the position of the agricultural producer in the food supply chain is widely described in the literature on the subject. Nevertheless, practical analyses showing the real impact of the marketing position on economic results of farm are still rare. Therefore, the aim of this article is to assess the relationship between market integration and agricultural selling prices and, as a consequence, the level of global output and household income. The analysis is based on primary data from surveys of over 700 small-scale family farms in Poland. The choice of small-scale farms was deliberate, as these entities are the most discriminated against in the food supply chain. Explaining this process is key to improving the economic situation of small-scale farming and constitutes a premise for the objectives of agricultural policy and creating business strategy. The results of the research indicate that there is a positive correlation between the level of integration of an agricultural holding and sales prices for selected groups of agricultural products. This, in turn, leads to the improvement of economic condition of farms more closely integrated with the market.

Measuring the synchronisation of agricultural prices: co-movement of cycles in pig and cattle prices in Brazil, Chile and Uruguay

Simultaneous spikes in global prices of many agricultural commodities in recent years have induced an interest in quantifying the degree of synchronisation of these movements. We suggest a conceptual framework explaining why temporally varying price synchronisation may happen and propose the concordance index for the empirical measurement of the incidence, symmetry and permanence of synchronisation. We establish that the index generates insights into time series dynamics which are complementary to those obtained from cointegration analysis. We illustrate the approach with an application for the co-movement in cyclical components of pig and cattle prices in three Latin American countries. The findings reveal moderate synchronisation levels which show asymmetric instabilities.

DOES TELEVISION PROMOTE DEAGRARIANIZATION? Understanding Rural-Youth Perception Towards the Agricultural-livelihood information on Television

The phenomenon of the high number of rural-youth migration from rural areas need to be studied from the perspective on how the agricultural livelihood is constructed by actors within the village. This research tries to focus on how rural-youth interpret messages on television about agricultural livelihood. Previous studies have explained that there are several things that can cause youth in the village to migrate out of the village. This study aims to (1) identify the characteristics of youth in Ciasmara Village, Pamijahan District, Bogor Regency, (2) Rural-youth Exposure in watching television. (3) Perceptions of rural youth on agricultural information representations on television. This research was conducted in Ciasmara village, Pamijahan District, Bogor Regency from March 2020 to August 2020 using quantitative research methods with a descriptive-comparative approach. 120 youth were selected as research samples. This research found that some of rural-youth in Ciasmara village admitted to having watched agricultural programs on television either on the news or in other programs in the last six months. The types of agricultural information that rural-youth in Ciasmara village have watched are mostly related to cultivation, harvest failure, pest attacks, and low agricultural prices.