Establishment of Risk Prediction Model for Brain Metastasis with Breast Cancer by Using ctDNA Genetic Profile and Clinical Features from Real-World Data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Tang ◽  
Liping Lu ◽  
Can Tian ◽  
Ning Xie ◽  
Jingyu Liu ◽  
...  
2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1048-1048
Author(s):  
Wei Fang Dai ◽  
Jaclyn Marie Beca ◽  
Chenthila Nagamuthu ◽  
Ning Liu ◽  
Maureen E. Trudeau ◽  
...  

1048 Background: Addition of P to T+chemo for MBC pts has been shown to improve overall survival (OS) in a pivotal randomized trial (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.84) (Baselga et al., NEJM 2012). In Canada, the manufacturer submission to the health technology assessment agency estimated that P produced 0.64 life years gained (LYG) with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $187,376/LYG over 10 years (CADTH-pCODR, 2013). This retrospective cohort analysis aims to determine the comparative real-world population-based effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of P among MBC pts in Ontario, Canada. Methods: MBC pts were identified from the Ontario Cancer Registry and linked to the New Drug Funding Program database to identify receipt of treatment between 1/1/2008 and 3/31/2018. Cases received P-T-chemo after universal public funding of P (Nov 2013) and controls received T-chemo before. Demographic (age, socioeconomic, rurality) and clinical (comorbidities, prior adjuvant treatments, prior breast cancer surgery, prior radiation, stage at diagnosis, ER/PR status) characteristics were identified from linked admin databases balanced between cases and controls using propensity score matching. Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regressions accounting for matched pairs were used to estimate median OS and HR. 5-year mean total costs from the public health system perspective were estimated from admin claims databases using established direct statistical methods and adjusted for censoring of both cost and effectiveness using inverse probability weighting. ICERs and 95% bootstrapped CIs were calculated, along with incremental net benefit (INB) at various willingness-to-pay values using net benefit regression. Results: We identified 1,823 MBC pts with 912 cases and 911 controls (mean age = 55 years), of which 579 pairs were matched. Cases had improved OS (HR = 0.66; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.78), with median 3.4 years, compared to controls median OS of 2.1. P provided an additional 0.63 (95% CI: 0.48 – 0.84) LYG at an incremental cost of $196,622 (95% CI: $180,774, $219,172), with a mean ICER = $312,147/LYG (95% CI: $260,752, $375,492). At threshold of $100,000/LYG, the INB was -$133,632 (95% CI: -$151,525, -$115,739) with < 1% probability of being cost-effective. Key drivers of incremental cost increase between groups included drug and cancer clinic costs. Conclusions: The addition of P to T-chemo for MBC increased survival but at significant costs. The ICER based on direct real-world data was higher than the initial economic model due to higher total costs for pts receiving P. This study demonstrated feasibility to derive ICER from person-level real-world data to inform cancer drug life-cycle health technology reassessment.


Author(s):  
Julie R. Palmer ◽  
Gary Zirpoli ◽  
Kimberly A. Bertrand ◽  
Tracy Battaglia ◽  
Leslie Bernstein ◽  
...  

PURPOSE Breast cancer risk prediction models are used to identify high-risk women for early detection, targeted interventions, and enrollment into prevention trials. We sought to develop and evaluate a risk prediction model for breast cancer in US Black women, suitable for use in primary care settings. METHODS Breast cancer relative risks and attributable risks were estimated using data from Black women in three US population-based case-control studies (3,468 breast cancer cases; 3,578 controls age 30-69 years) and combined with SEER age- and race-specific incidence rates, with incorporation of competing mortality, to develop an absolute risk model. The model was validated in prospective data among 51,798 participants of the Black Women's Health Study, including 1,515 who developed invasive breast cancer. A second risk prediction model was developed on the basis of estrogen receptor (ER)–specific relative risks and attributable risks. Model performance was assessed by calibration (expected/observed cases) and discriminatory accuracy (C-statistic). RESULTS The expected/observed ratio was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.95 to 1.07). Age-adjusted C-statistics were 0.58 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.59) overall and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.58 to 0.68) among women younger than 40 years. These measures were almost identical in the model based on estrogen receptor–specific relative risks and attributable risks. CONCLUSION Discriminatory accuracy of the new model was similar to that of the most frequently used questionnaire-based breast cancer risk prediction models in White women, suggesting that effective risk stratification for Black women is now possible. This model may be especially valuable for risk stratification of young Black women, who are below the ages at which breast cancer screening is typically begun.


The Breast ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. S56
Author(s):  
T. Belladona Cardoso ◽  
J.D. Lyra Batista ◽  
R.J. Vargas Alves ◽  
K. Arima Tiscoski ◽  
F. Pontes Grando

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document