Identifying the source of information rigidities in the expectations formation process

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mototsugu Shintani ◽  
Kozo Ueda
Keyword(s):  
Formation Process ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
Source Of Information

scholarly journals Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (8) ◽  
pp. 2644-2678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Keyword(s):  
Formation Process ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
State Dependence ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Economic Significance ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
Information Models ◽  
International Data ◽  
Information Rigidity

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to US and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process. (JEL C53, D83, D84, E13, E31, E37)

scholarly journals Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Keyword(s):  
Formation Process ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
Information Rigidity

Expectations and Preferences in British General Elections

1994 ◽  
Vol 88 (2) ◽  
pp. 371-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Nadeau ◽  
Richard G. Niemi ◽  
Timothy Amato
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Formation Process ◽  
General Election ◽  
Bandwagon Effect ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
Before And After ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Rapid Adjustment ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Using Data

We address two questions: How do people form their expectations about the likely winner of the next general election? and What are the links between expectations and votes? Using data collected by the Gallup organization in Great Britain, we find that the expectations formation process (1) has a significant inertia component but also a rapid adjustment to current information; (2) reflects voters' ability to translate economic expectations into political forecasts; and (3) is “time-bounded,” possessing special characteristics immediately before and after a general election. The analysis also confirms the existence of a small bandwagon effect, whereby expectations that one party will win inflate that party's vote. The ability of voters to make reasonable forecasts without being unduly influenced by their own preferences suggests that under normal circumstances voters are expressing real preferences and not simply following the crowd.

scholarly journals Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Keyword(s):  
Formation Process ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
Information Rigidity

scholarly journals Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (296) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Formation Process ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
Information Rigidity

PLACES AND NAMES IN ASŪNE PARISH IN THE CENSUS (“REVISION OF SOULS”) OF 1772

Via Latgalica ◽  
2017 ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Otīlija Kovaļevska
Keyword(s):  
Formation Process ◽  
Foster Children ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Place Names ◽  
Graphic Visualization ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Village ◽  
Source Of Information

The aim of the article is to present the content of the census 1772 for Rēzekne District and show the possibilities it provides for research of the place names of certain areas. The chosen territory corresponds to Asūne parish as it was in 1935 and includes the contemporary Asūne and Ķepova parish, as well as partially Svariņi and Bērziņi parish. The results of 1772 census is the richest source of information about villages and inhabitants which belonged to the former Asūne half a manor and clergy house in 18th century. The documents describe 75 villages, 424 households and 4733 persons. Individual people are listed indicating each person’s name, surname (for adults), age, and position in the family or kinship (hosts, wives, children, other relatives, foster children, workers s. c.). Up to now it is also the oldest source, so broadly representing women's surnames in Asūne parish because they differ from their husbands' surnames. Most often a woman kept their father’s surname, but occasionally the surname was made of her father’s name or even of a place name. Thereby it becomes possible to observe the intense formation process of surnames and related place names in the 18th century. Noteworthy are the names and surnames that are rare or even have not survived to the present day, but the traces of such names are still preserved in place names and surnames, which in turn indicate newcomers from other parishes and even from Belarus. Geographical descriptions of villages contain also the names of 17 lakes and 11 rivers; most of them have kept their names until nowadays. Older forms of actual place names and several already disappeared names can be found there.For the analysis of the material options of Excel programs (structuring, selection the materials, extraction and processing of statistical data, graphic visualization) have been used. Cartographical methods have been employed to search for correlations between the village names and surnames. To acquire a better understanding of the results of the census 1772, these materials were compared with earlier 18th century census data, as well as with maps from various periods.

Sovereign credit news and disagreement in expectations about the exchange rate: evidence from Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Silveira Pacheco de Oliveira ◽  
Gabriel Caldas Montes
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Formation Process ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
Exchange Rate Expectations ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeCredit rating agencies (CRAs) are perceived as highly influential in the financial system since their announcements can affect several players in the financial markets, from big private financial and non-financial companies and their financial markets experts to sovereign states. In this sense, this study investigates whether sovereign credit news issued by CRAs (measured by comprehensive credit rating (CCR) variables) affect the uncertainties about the exchange rate in the future (captured by the disagreement about exchange rate expectations). The study is relevant once there is evidence indicating that CRAs' assessments are responsible for affecting international capital flows and, thus, sovereign rating changes can affect the expectations formation process regarding the exchange rate. In addition, there is evidence indicating that the disagreement about exchange rate expectations affects the disagreement about inflation expectations, which brings consequences to policymakers.Design/methodology/approachThe dependent variables are the disagreement in expectations about the Brazilian exchange rate for different forecast horizons, 12, 24 and 36 months ahead and the first principal component of theses series. On the other hand, the CCR variables are built upon the long-term foreign-currency Brazilian bonds ratings, outlooks and credit watches provided by the main CRAs. Estimates are obtained using ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM); a dynamic analysis is performed using vector-autoregressive (VAR) through impulse-response functions.FindingsNegative (positive) sovereign credit news, given by a rating downgrade (upgrade) and/or a negative (positive) outlook/watch status, increase (decrease) the disagreement about exchange rate expectations. This result holds for all disagreement and CCR variables.Practical implicationsThe study brings practical implications to both private agents (mainly financial market experts) and policymakers. An important practical implication of the study concerns the ability of CRAs to affect the expectations formation process of financial market experts regarding the future behavior of the exchange rate. When a CRA issues a signal of improvement in a country's sovereign rating, this signal reflects the perception of improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals and reduction of uncertainties about the country's ability to honor its financial obligations, which therefore, facilitates the expectations formation process, causing a reduction in the disagreement about the exchange rate expectations. With respect to the consequences for policymakers, they will have more difficulty in guiding expectations in a country with a worse sovereign risk rating, where agents have difficulties in forming expectations and the disagreement in expectations is greater.Originality/valueThe study is the first to analyze the impact of CRAs' announcements on the disagreement about exchange rate expectations. Moreover, it connects the literature that investigates the effects of sovereign credit news on the economy with the literature that examines the main determinants of disagreement in expectations about macroeconomic variables.

scholarly journals Economic Science and Evolution of Economic Agents’ Expectations Formation Process

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeriy Shlychkov ◽  
Diana Nestulaeva
Keyword(s):  
Formation Process ◽  
Economic Science ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Expectations Formation

Magnetic-field strengths from optical polarization data

1967 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 381-383
Author(s):  
J. M. Greenberg
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Optical Polarization ◽  
Polarization Data ◽  
Term Model ◽  
Source Of Information ◽  
Field Strengths

Van de Hulst (Paper 64, Table 1) has marked optical polarization as a questionable or marginal source of information concerning magnetic field strengths. Rather than arguing about this–I should rate this method asq+-, or quarrelling about the term ‘model-sensitive results’, I wish to stress the historical point that as recently as two years ago there were still some who questioned that optical polarization was definitely due to magnetically-oriented interstellar particles.

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