Expectations and Preferences in British General Elections

1994 ◽  
Vol 88 (2) ◽  
pp. 371-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Nadeau ◽  
Richard G. Niemi ◽  
Timothy Amato
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Formation Process ◽  
General Election ◽  
Bandwagon Effect ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
Before And After ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Rapid Adjustment ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Using Data

We address two questions: How do people form their expectations about the likely winner of the next general election? and What are the links between expectations and votes? Using data collected by the Gallup organization in Great Britain, we find that the expectations formation process (1) has a significant inertia component but also a rapid adjustment to current information; (2) reflects voters' ability to translate economic expectations into political forecasts; and (3) is “time-bounded,” possessing special characteristics immediately before and after a general election. The analysis also confirms the existence of a small bandwagon effect, whereby expectations that one party will win inflate that party's vote. The ability of voters to make reasonable forecasts without being unduly influenced by their own preferences suggests that under normal circumstances voters are expressing real preferences and not simply following the crowd.

Official and Reported Turnout in the British General Election of 1987

1989 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 537-551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Swaddle ◽  
Anthony Heath
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
General Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Electoral Register ◽  
Official Rate ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Electoral Behaviour ◽  
Using Data

This Note looks afresh at the question of turnout in British general elections, using data gathered in the 1987 British General Election Study, together with information on the electoral behaviour of the sample, collected independently of the BGES survey. The official rate of turnout for Great Britain in 1987 (the number of votes cast over the number of entries on the electoral register) was around 75 per cent; that is to say, according to official figures, about one in four registered electors did not vote. In common with earlier surveys, the BGES indicates a much higher turnout figure than the official one; 86 per cent of respondents to the survey reported that they had voted.

The machinery of the Irish parliamentary party in the general election of 1895

1952 ◽  
Vol 8 (30) ◽  
pp. 115-139
Author(s):  
F.S.L. Lyons
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
General Election ◽  
Home Rule ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Time ◽  
General Elections ◽  
History Of ◽  
Practical Politics

Each of the general elections that took place between 1885 and 1910 was significant in the history of the party, but that of 1895 had an interest peculiar to itself, setting it apart from the others in the series. It was not an election which brought about any major change in the relative strength of the various parties; it was not even notable for the number of seats to be contested. Nor was it fought upon any major issue of policy, since it was obvious to all but the most optimistic that home rule was not—and for a long time was not likely to be—a matter of practical politics; even the question of whether or not to continue the liberal alliance—a question hotly debated ever since Lord Rosebery's unpromising reference to home rule in March 1894—seemed largely academic in view of the probability of a unionist victory in Great Britain. For the Irish party—or, to speak more precisely, for the anti-Parnellites—the importance of the election of 1895 lay in quite a different direction; it lay in the fact that as a result of this campaign the methods whereby in the past the party had controlled the conduct of the elections over a large part of Ireland were deeply and permanently discredited, and the party itself confronted with a very serious crisis. It is the purpose of this paper to trace the development of that crisis, but before proceeding to consider it in detail, it will be necessary to describe very briefly the way in which this control over the elections was exercised.

How Collective-Action Failure Shapes Group Heterogeneity and Engagement in Conventional and Radical Action Over Time

2021 ◽  
pp. 095679762097056
Author(s):  
Morgana Lizzio-Wilson ◽  
Emma F. Thomas ◽  
Winnifred R. Louis ◽  
Brittany Wilcockson ◽  
Catherine E. Amiot ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Movements ◽  
Collective Action ◽  
Latent Profile Analysis ◽  
Profile Analysis ◽  
Social Identification ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Group Efficacy ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

Extensive research has identified factors influencing collective-action participation. However, less is known about how collective-action outcomes (i.e., success and failure) shape engagement in social movements over time. Using data collected before and after the 2017 marriage-equality debate in Australia, we conducted a latent profile analysis that indicated that success unified supporters of change ( n = 420), whereas failure created subgroups among opponents ( n = 419), reflecting four divergent responses: disengagement (resigned acceptors), moderate disengagement and continued investment (moderates), and renewed commitment to the cause using similar strategies (stay-the-course opponents) or new strategies (innovators). Resigned acceptors were least inclined to act following failure, whereas innovators were generally more likely to engage in conventional action and justify using radical action relative to the other profiles. These divergent reactions were predicted by differing baseline levels of social identification, group efficacy, and anger. Collective-action outcomes dynamically shape participation in social movements; this is an important direction for future research.

Do the calendar anomalies still exist? Evidence from Indian currency market

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 136-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar ◽  
Rajesh Pathak
Keyword(s):  
Least Square ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Market ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Calendar Anomalies ◽  
Ordinary Least Square Regression ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
Using Data

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence of the day-of-the-week (DOW) and January effect in the Indian currency market for selected currency pairs; USD-(Indian rupee) INR, EUR-INR, GBP-INR and JPY-INR, from January, 1999 to December, 2014. Design/methodology/approach – Ordinary least square regression analysis is used to examine the presence of DOW and January effect to test the efficiency of the Indian currency market. The sample period is later divided into two sub-periods, that is, pre- and post-2008 to capture the behavior of returns before and after the 2008 financial crisis. Further, the authors also use the non-parametric technique, the Kruskal-Wallis test, to provide robustness check for the results. Findings – The results indicate that the returns during Monday to Wednesday are positive and higher than the returns on Thursday and Friday which show negative returns. The returns during January are found to be higher than the returns during rest of the year. Further, all currencies exhibit significant DOW and January effects in pre-crisis period, however, post-crisis; these effects disappear for all currencies indicating that the markets have become more efficient in the later time. The findings can be further attributed to the increased intervention in the forex markets by the Reserve Bank of India after the crisis. Practical implications – The results have important implications for both traders and investors. The findings suggest that the investors might not be able to earn excess profits by timing their positions in some particular currencies taking the advantage of DOW or January effect which in turn indicates that the currency markets have become more efficient with time. The results are in conformity with those reported for the developed markets. The results might be appealing to the practitioners as well in a way that they can consider the state of financial market for financial decision making. Originality/value – The authors provide the first study to examine the calendar anomalies (DOW and January effect) across a range of emerging currencies using 16 years of data from January, 1999 to December, 2014. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no study has yet examined these calendar anomalies in the currency markets using data which covers two important periods, pre-2008 and post-2008.

A Dividing Nation? An Initial Exploration of the Changing Electoral Geography of Great Britain, 1979–1987

1987 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1001-1013 ◽  
Author(s):  
R J Johnston ◽  
C J Pattie
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Electoral Geography ◽  
Occupational Class ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Initial Exploration

Commentators have suggested an increased spatial polarisation in voting behaviour within Great Britain over recent decades. Analyses designed to evaluate this suggestion for the period 1979–87 are reported. Entropy-maximising procedures were used to produce estimates of voting by occupational class at the 1979, 1983, and 1987 general elections; they show very clear patterns of increased polarisation over the period.

scholarly journals POWER LAWS IN REAL ESTATE PRICES DURING BUBBLE PERIODS

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 61-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
TAKAAKI OHNISHI ◽  
TAKAYUKI MIZUNO ◽  
CHIHIRO SHIMIZU ◽  
TSUTOMU WATANABE
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Power Law ◽  
House Price ◽  
Power Laws ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Price Distribution ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The U.S

How can we detect real estate bubbles? In this paper, we propose making use of information on the cross-sectional dispersion of real estate prices. During bubble periods, prices tend to go up considerably for some properties, but less so for others, so that price inequality across properties increases. In other words, a key characteristic of real estate bubbles is not the rapid price hike itself but a rise in price dispersion. Given this, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether developments in the dispersion in real estate prices can be used to detect bubbles in property markets as they arise, using data from Japan and the U.S. First, we show that the land price distribution in Tokyo had a power-law tail during the bubble period in the late 1980s, while it was very close to a lognormal before and after the bubble period. Second, in the U.S. data we find that the tail of the house price distribution tends to be heavier in those states which experienced a housing bubble. We also provide evidence suggesting that the power-law tail observed during bubble periods arises due to the lack of price arbitrage across regions.

scholarly journals Botulinum toxin injection changes resting state cerebellar connectivity in cervical dystonia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Hok ◽  
Lenka Hvizdošová ◽  
Pavel Otruba ◽  
Michaela Kaiserová ◽  
Markéta Trnečková ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Functional Mri ◽  
Resting State ◽  
Cervical Dystonia ◽  
Botulinum Neurotoxin ◽  
Botulinum Toxin Injection ◽  
Clinical Severity ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Positive Correlations ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Right

AbstractIn cervical dystonia, functional MRI (fMRI) evidence indicates changes in several resting state networks, which revert in part following the botulinum neurotoxin A (BoNT) therapy. Recently, the involvement of the cerebellum in dystonia has gained attention. The aim of our study was to compare connectivity between cerebellar subdivisions and the rest of the brain before and after BoNT treatment. Seventeen patients with cervical dystonia indicated for treatment with BoNT were enrolled (14 female, aged 50.2 ± 8.5 years, range 38–63 years). Clinical and fMRI examinations were carried out before and 4 weeks after BoNT injection. Clinical severity was evaluated using TWSTRS. Functional MRI data were acquired on a 1.5 T scanner during 8 min rest. Seed-based functional connectivity analysis was performed using data extracted from atlas-defined cerebellar areas in both datasets. Clinical scores demonstrated satisfactory BoNT effect. After treatment, connectivity decreased between the vermis lobule VIIIa and the left dorsal mesial frontal cortex. Positive correlations between the connectivity differences and the clinical improvement were detected for the right lobule VI, right crus II, vermis VIIIb and the right lobule IX. Our data provide evidence for modulation of cerebello-cortical connectivity resulting from successful treatment by botulinum neurotoxin.

Position of Nepali Congress in the Electoral Politics of Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 32-42
Author(s):  
Amrit Kumar Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Representative Democracy ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Status ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Election Commission

Nepali Congress (NC) is one of the oldest political party of Nepal. It played a vital role to abolish the century long autocratic Rana rule in 1951. It fought against the party-less Panchayat system and the regressive step of the king. It opposes active kingship and communism. It believes in a representative democracy. It has participated in every election of Nepal that was conducted democratically. It won more than two-thirds majority seats in the first general election held in 1959. In every election, it stayed in the first or second position. This article tries to analyze the status of NC in the elections of Nepal. Data of seven general elections were examined in this article. Data were extracted basically from the reports of the Election Commission.

scholarly journals Depth-Average Velocity from Spray Underwater Gliders

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 1665-1673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel L. Rudnick ◽  
Jeffrey T. Sherman ◽  
Alexander P. Wu
Keyword(s):  
Average Velocity ◽  
Dead Reckoning ◽  
Water Velocity ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Underwater Glider ◽  
Underwater Gliders ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers

AbstractThe depth-average velocity is routinely calculated using data from underwater gliders. The calculation is a dead reckoning, where the difference between the glider’s velocity over ground and its velocity through water yields the water velocity averaged over the glider’s dive path. Given the accuracy of global positioning system navigation and the typical 3–6-h dive cycle, the accuracy of the depth-average velocity is overwhelmingly dependent on the accurate estimation of the glider’s velocity through water. The calculation of glider velocity through water for the Spray underwater glider is described. The accuracy of this calculation is addressed using a method similar to that used with shipboard acoustic Doppler current profilers, where water velocity is compared before and after turns to determine a gain to apply to glider velocity through water. Differences of this gain from an ideal value of one are used to evaluate accuracy. Sustained glider observations of several years off California and Palau consisted of missions involving repeated straight sections, producing hundreds of turns. The root-mean-square accuracy of depth-average velocity is estimated to be in the range of 0.01–0.02 m s−1, consistent with inferences from the early days of underwater glider design.

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