A Robust Glacial Lake Outburst Hazard Assessment System Validated by GLOF Event in 2020 in the Nidu Zangbo Basin, Tibetan Plateau

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dahong Zhang ◽  
Gang Zhou ◽  
Wen Li ◽  
Lei Han ◽  
Shiqiang Zhang ◽  
...  

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1376
Author(s):  
Taigang Zhang ◽  
Weicai Wang ◽  
Tanguang Gao ◽  
Baosheng An

A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a typical glacier-related hazard in high mountain regions. In recent decades, glacial lakes in the Himalayas have expanded rapidly due to climate warming and glacial retreat. Some of these lakes are unstable, and may suddenly burst under different triggering factors, thus draining large amounts of water and impacting downstream social and economic development. Glacial lakes in the Poiqu River basin, Central Himalayas, have attracted great attention since GLOFs originating there could have a transboundary impact on both China and Nepal, as occurred during the Cirenmaco GLOF in 1981 and the Gongbatongshaco GLOF in 2016. Based on previous studies of this basin, we selected seven very high-risk moraine-dammed lakes (Gangxico, Galongco, Jialongco, Cirenmaco, Taraco, Beihu, and Cawuqudenco) to simulate GLOF propagation at different drainage percentage scenarios (i.e., 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%), and to conduct hazard assessment. The results show that, when any glacial lake is drained completely or partly, most of the floods will enter Nepal after raging in China, and will continue to cause damage. In summary, 57.5 km of roads, 754 buildings, 3.3 km2 of farmland, and 25 bridges are at risk of damage due to GLOFs. The potentially inundated area within the Chinese part of the Poiqu River basin exceeds 45 km2. Due to the destructive impacts of GLOFs on downstream areas, appropriate and effective measures should be implemented to adapt to GLOF risk. We finally present a paradigm for conducting hazard assessment and risk management. It uses only freely available data and thus is easy to apply.



2020 ◽  
Vol 177 (8) ◽  
pp. 3631-3650
Author(s):  
Guojie Meng ◽  
Xiaoning Su ◽  
Chieh-Hung Chen ◽  
Kai-Chien Cheng ◽  
Ta-Kang Yeh


2000 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhigang Huang ◽  
David V. Rosowsky ◽  
Peter R. Sparks






2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1132-1143
Author(s):  
LIU Juan ◽  
◽  
YAO Xiaojun ◽  
GAO Yongpeng ◽  
QI Miaomiao ◽  
...  


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mei Liu ◽  
Ningsheng Chen ◽  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Mingfeng Deng

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) evolve into debris flows by erosion and sediment entrainment while propagating down a valley, which highly increases peak discharge and volume and causes destructive damage downstream. This study focuses on GLOF hazard assessment in the Bhote Koshi Basin (BKB), where was highly developed glacial lakes and was intensely affected by the Gorkha earthquake. A new 2016 glacial lake inventory was established, and six unreported GLOF events were identified with geomorphic outburst evidence from GaoFen-1 satellite images and Google Earth. A new method was proposed to assess GLOF hazard, in which large numbers of landslides triggered by earthquake were considered to enter into outburst floods enlarge the discharge and volume of debris flow in the downstream. Four GLOF hazard classes were derived according to glacial lake outburst potential and a flow magnitude assessment matrix, in which 11 glacial lakes were identified to have very high hazard and 24 to have high hazard. The GLOF hazard in BKB increased after the earthquake due to landslide deposits, which increased by 216.03 × 106 m3, and provides abundant deposits for outburst floods to evolve into debris flows. We suggest that in regional GLOF hazard assessment, small glacial lakes should not be overlooked for landslide deposit entrainment along a flood route that would increase the peak discharge, especially in earthquake-affected areas where large numbers of landslides were triggered.



2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holger Frey ◽  
Christian Huggel ◽  
Rachel E. Chisolm ◽  
Patrick Baer ◽  
Brian McArdell ◽  
...  


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1551-1565 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Emmer ◽  
V. Vilímek

Abstract. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows represent a significant threat in high mountainous areas across the globe. It is necessary to quantify this threat so as to mitigate their catastrophic effects. Complete GLOF hazard assessment incorporates two phases: the probability of water release from a given glacial lake is estimated through lake and breach hazard assessment while the endangered areas are identified during downstream hazard assessment. This paper outlines a number of methods of lake and breach hazard assessment, which can be grouped into three categories: qualitative, of which we outline eight; semi-quantitative, of which we outline two; and quantitative, of which we outline three. It is considered that five groups of critical parameters are essential for an accurate regionally focused hazard assessment method for moraine-dammed lakes in the Cordillera Blanca. These comprise the possibility of dynamic slope movements into the lake, the possibility of a flood wave from a lake situated upstream, the possibility of dam rupture following a large earthquake, the size of the dam freeboard (or ratio of dam freeboard), and a distinction between natural dams and those with remedial work. It is shown that none of the summarised methods uses all these criteria with, at most, three of the five considered by the outlined methods. A number of these methods were used on six selected moraine-dammed lakes in the Cordillera Blanca: lakes Quitacocha, Checquiacocha, Palcacocha, Llaca, Rajucolta, and Tararhua. The results have been compared and show that each method has certain advantages and disadvantages when used in this region. These methods demonstrate that the most hazardous lake is Lake Palcacocha.



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