scholarly journals Prediction of Outstanding Liabilities in Non-Life Insurance

1993 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ragnar Norberg

AbstractA fully time-continuous approach is taken to the problem of predicting the total liability of a non-life insurance company. Claims are assumed to be generated by a non-homogeneous marked Poisson process, the marks representing the developments of the individual claims. A first basic result is that the total claim amount follows a generalized Poisson distribution. Fixing the time of consideration, the claims are categorized into settled, reported but not settled, incurred but not reported, and covered but not incurred. It is proved that these four categories of claims can be viewed as arising from independent marked Poisson processes. By use of this decomposition result predictors are constructed for all categories of outstanding claims. The claims process may depend on observable as well as unobservable risk characteristics, which may change in the course of time, possibly in a random manner. Special attention is given to the case where the claim intensity per risk unit is a stationary stochastic process. A theory of continuous linear prediction is instrumental.

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 379-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan M. Pitts

A functional approach is taken for the total claim amount distribution for the individual risk model. Various commonly used approximations for this distribution are considered, including the compound Poisson approximation, the compound binomial approximation, the compound negative binomial approximation and the normal approximation. These are shown to arise as zeroth order approximations in the functional set-up. By taking the derivative of the functional that maps the individual claim distributions onto the total claim amount distribution, new first order approximation formulae are obtained as refinements to the existing approximations. For particular choices of input, these new approximations are simple to calculate. Numerical examples, including the well-known Gerber portfolio, are considered. Corresponding approximations for stop-loss premiums are given.


2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-328
Author(s):  
Alicja Wolny-Dominiak

Nowadays a common practice of any insurance company is ratemaking, which is defined as the process of classification of the mass risk portfolio into risk groups where the same premium corresponds to each risk. As generalised linear models are usually applied, the process requires the independence between the average value of claims and the number of claims. However, in literature this assumption is called into question. The interest of this paper is to propose the copula-based total claim amount model taking into account an unobservable risk factor in the claim frequency model. This factor, called also as unobserved heterogeneity, is treated as a random variable influencing the number of claims. The goal is to estimate the expected value of the product of two random variables: the average value of claims and the number of claims for a single risk assuming the dependence between the average value of claims and the number of claims for a single risk and the dependence between the number of claims for a single risk and the unobservable risk factor. We give details of the theoretical aspects of the model as well as the empirical example. To acquaint the reader with the model operation, every step of the process of the expected value estimation in described and the R code is available for download, see http://web.ue.katowice.pl/woali/.


2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (02) ◽  
pp. 379-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan M. Pitts

A functional approach is taken for the total claim amount distribution for the individual risk model. Various commonly used approximations for this distribution are considered, including the compound Poisson approximation, the compound binomial approximation, the compound negative binomial approximation and the normal approximation. These are shown to arise as zeroth order approximations in the functional set-up. By taking the derivative of the functional that maps the individual claim distributions onto the total claim amount distribution, new first order approximation formulae are obtained as refinements to the existing approximations. For particular choices of input, these new approximations are simple to calculate. Numerical examples, including the well-known Gerber portfolio, are considered. Corresponding approximations for stop-loss premiums are given.


Equilibrium ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-59
Author(s):  
Marcin Fałdziński

Probable maximum loss is a measure coming from the insurance market, where is applied to insurance portfolio analysis. This correspond to the 20-80 rule, which states that 20% of the individual claims are responsible for more than 80% of the total claim amount in a well defined portfolio. The main aim of the presented paper is estimation of the probable maximum loss for stock returns which are treated as portfolios of securities. It turns out that probable maximum loss is a useful tool for risk analysis or/and diagnostic purposes at capital markets, but we have to be aware of its drawbacks.


2019 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 541-569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bojan Basrak ◽  
Olivier Wintenberger ◽  
Petra Žugec

AbstractWe study the asymptotic distribution of the total claim amount for marked Poisson cluster models. The marks determine the size and other characteristics of the individual claims and potentially influence the arrival rate of future claims. We find sufficient conditions under which the total claim amount satisfies the central limit theorem or, alternatively, tends in distribution to an infinite-variance stable random variable. We discuss several Poisson cluster models in detail, paying special attention to the marked Hawkes process as our key example.


PMLA ◽  
1935 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 1357-1357

On Tuesday evening the members of the Association, and attending members of their families, were entertained with a buffet supper at the Queen City Club at 7:30 p.m. at the invitation of Messrs. Joseph S. Graydon, John J. Rowe, and other Cincinnati friends of the Association. Following this supper an entertainment arranged by the Local Committee was presented in the Hall of the Western and Southern Life Insurance Company. Attendance: about 900.


Think India ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 348-354
Author(s):  
T. Krishna Veni ◽  
G. Kalyani

The job of Human Resources is changing as quick as innovation and the worldwide commercial center. Generally, the HR Department was seen as organization, kept individual documents and different records, dealt with the enlisting procedure, and gave other authoritative help to the business. Those circumstances are different. The positive consequence of these progressions is that HR experts have the chance to assume a progressively vital job in the business. The test for HR chiefs is to stay up with the latest with the most recent HR developments—mechanical, lawful, and something else.


Author(s):  
Joy Chakraborty ◽  
Partha Pratim Sengupta

In the pre-reform era, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LICI) dominated the Indian life insurance market with a market share close to 100 percent. But the situation drastically changed since the enactment of the IRDA Act in 1999. At the end of the FY 2012-13, the market share of LICI stood at around 73 percent with the number of players having risen to 24 in the countrys life insurance sector. One of the reasons for such a decline in the market share of LICI during the post-reform period could be attributed to the increasing competition prevailing in the countrys life insurance sector. At the same time, the liberalization of the life insurance sector for private participation has eventually raised issues about ensuring sound financial performance and solvency of the life insurance companies besides protection of the interest of policyholders. The present study is an attempt to evaluate and compare the financial performances, solvency, and the market concentration of the four leading life insurers in India namely the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LICI), ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited (ICICI PruLife), HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Limited (HDFC Standard), and SBI Life Insurance Company Limited (SBI Life), over a span of five successive FYs 2008-09 to 2012-13. In this regard, the CARAMELS model has been used to evaluate the performances of the selected life insurers, based on the Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) as published by IMF. In addition to this, the Solvency and the Market Concentration Analyses were also presented for the selected life insurers for the given period. The present study revealed the preexisting dominance of LICI even after 15 years since the privatization of the countrys life insurance sector.


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