scholarly journals Rainfall prediction for sustainable economic growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 120-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Retius Chifurira ◽  
Delson Chikobvu ◽  
Dorah Dubihlela
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Agriculture is the backbone of Zimbabwe’s economy with the majority of Zimbabweans being rural people who derive their livelihood from agriculture and other agro-based economic activities. Zimbabwe’s agriculture depends on the erratic rainfall which threatens food, water and energy access, as well as vital livelihood systems which could severely undermine efforts to drive sustainable economic growth. For Zimbabwe, delivering a sustainable economic growth is intrinsically linked to improved climate modelling. Climate research plays a pivotal role in building Zimbabwe’s resilience to climate change and keeping the country on track, as it charts its path towards sustainable economic growth. This paper presents a simple tool to predict summer rainfall using standardized Darwin sea level pressure (SDSLP) anomalies and southern oscillation index (SOI) that are used as part of an early drought warning system. Results show that SDSLP anomalies and SOI for the month of April of the same year, i.e., seven months before onset of summer rainfall (December to February total rainfall) are a simple indicator of amount of summer rainfall in Zimbabwe. The low root mean square error (RMSE) and root mean absolute error (RMAE) values of the proposed model, make SDSLP anomalies for April and SOI for the same month an additional input candidates for regional rainfall prediction schemes. The results of the proposed model will benefit in the prediction of oncoming summer rainfall and will influence policy making in agriculture, environment planning, food redistribution and drought prediction for sustainable economic development. Keywords: sustainable economic growth, standardized Darwin sea level pressure anomalies, southern oscillation index, summer rainfall prediction, Zimbabwe. JEL Classification: Q16, Q25, Q54, Q55, Q58

scholarly journals Complex network approach for detecting tropical cyclones

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shraddha Gupta ◽  
Niklas Boers ◽  
Florian Pappenberger ◽  
Jürgen Kurths
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Complex Network ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Network Approach ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Climate Networks

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural hazards that pose a serious threat to society, particularly to those in the coastal regions. In this work, we study the temporal evolution of the regional weather conditions in relation to the occurrence of TCs using climate networks. Climate networks encode the interactions among climate variables at different locations on the Earth’s surface, and in particular, time-evolving climate networks have been successfully applied to study different climate phenomena at comparably long time scales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, different monsoon systems, or the climatic impacts of volcanic eruptions. Here, we develop and apply a complex network approach suitable for the investigation of the relatively short-lived TCs. We show that our proposed methodology has the potential to identify TCs and their tracks from mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. We use the ERA5 reanalysis MSLP data to construct successive networks of overlapping, short-length time windows for the regions under consideration, where we focus on the north Indian Ocean and the tropical north Atlantic Ocean. We compare the spatial features of various topological properties of the network, and the spatial scales involved, in the absence and presence of a cyclone. We find that network measures such as degree and clustering exhibit significant signatures of TCs and have striking similarities with their tracks. The study of the network topology over time scales relevant to TCs allows us to obtain crucial insights into the effects of TCs on the spatial connectivity structure of sea-level pressure fields.

scholarly journals New Insights into Annual and Semiannual Cycles of Sea Level Pressure

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (4) ◽  
pp. 1347-1355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ge Chen ◽  
Chengcheng Qian ◽  
Caiyun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
The North ◽  
Dominant Feature ◽  
The One ◽  
The North Pacific

Sea level pressure (SLP) acts, on the one hand, as a “bridge parameter” to which geophysical properties at the air–sea interface (e.g., wind stress and sea surface height) are linked, and on the other hand, as an “index parameter” by which major atmospheric oscillations, including the well-known Southern Oscillation, are defined. Using 144 yr (1854–1997) of extended reconstructed SLP data, seasonal patterns of its variability are reinvestigated in detail. New features on fundamental structure of its annual and semiannual cycles are revealed in two aspects. First, the spatiotemporal patterns of yearly and half-yearly SLPs are basically determined by a network of “amphidromes,” which are surrounded by rotational variations. Fourteen cyclonic and anticyclonic annual SLP amphidromes (half each and often in pair) are found in the global ocean, while the numbers of the two types of semiannual amphidrome are 11 and 9, respectively. The second dominant feature in SLP variability is the pattern of oscillation or seesaw for both annual and semiannual components. At least eight oscillation zones are identified for the annual cycle, which can be categorized into a boreal winter mode and an austral winter mode. As for the semiannual cycle, the seesaw pattern is geographically divided into three regimes: the North Pacific regime, the North Atlantic regime, and the Southern Ocean regime. These findings serve as a new contribution to characterizing and understanding the seasonality of the global ocean–atmosphere system.

Influence of the Antarctic Oscillation, the Pacific–South American modes and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the Antarctic surface temperature and pressure variations

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lejiang Yu ◽  
Zhanhai Zhang ◽  
Mingyu Zhou ◽  
Sharon Zhong ◽  
Donald Lenschow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
South American ◽  
Antarctic Oscillation ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
And Sea Level

AbstractIn this study, the impacts of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the Pacific–South American teleconnection (PSA) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Antarctic sea level pressure and surface temperature are investigated using surface observational data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40 Year Re-analysis (ERA-40) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) re-analysis data from 1958–2001. There is the most significant correlation between PSA and Antarctic sea level pressure and surface temperature in the northern Antarctic Peninsula during four seasons. But the correlation between Southern Oscillation Index and surface temperature and sea level pressure is significant at some stations only in spring. The three indices can explain a large portion of the trends found in sea level pressure and temperature at some stations, but not at all stations. Among the three indices the most important contribution to the trends in the two surface variables comes from AAO, followed by PSA, and finally by ENSO. The two re-analysis datasets show great similarity for the trends in surface temperature and sea level pressure in April–May and October–November, but not December–February. In summer the trends in surface temperature and sea level pressure in East Antarctica for ERA-40 re-analysis are opposite to those of NCEP re-analysis.

scholarly journals Relationships between Extratropical Sea Level Pressure Variations and the Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific Types of ENSO

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 708-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Yi Yu ◽  
Seon Tae Kim
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Nodal Point ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract This study examines the linkages between leading patterns of interannual sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the extratropical Pacific (20°–60°N) and the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the extratropical SLP anomalies represents variations of the Aleutian low, and the second EOF mode represents the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and is characterized by a meridional SLP anomaly dipole with a nodal point near 50°N. It is shown that a fraction of the first SLP mode can be excited by both the EP and CP types of ENSO. The SLP response to the EP type is stronger and more immediate. The tropical–extratropical teleconnection appears to act more slowly for the CP ENSO. During the decay phase of EP events, the associated extratropical SLP anomalies shift from the first SLP mode to the second SLP mode. As the second SLP mode grows, subtropical SST anomalies are induced beneath via surface heat flux anomalies. The SST anomalies persist after the peak in strength of the second SLP mode, likely because of the seasonal footprinting mechanism, and lead to the development of the CP type of ENSO. This study shows that the CP ENSO is an extratropically excited mode of tropical Pacific variability and also suggests that the decay of an EP type of ENSO can lead to the onset of a CP type of ENSO with the aid of the NPO. This extratropical linking mechanism appears to be at work during the 1972, 1982, and 1997 strong El Niño events, which were all EP events and were all followed by strong CP La Niña events after the NPO was excited in the extratropics. This study concludes that extratropical SLP variations play an important role in exciting the CP type of ENSO and in linking the transitions from the EP to CP events.

Prediction of summer rainfall in Pakistan from global sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure

Weather ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 76-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Adnan ◽  
Nadia Rehman ◽  
Shaukat Ali ◽  
Shahbaz Mehmood ◽  
Kaleem Anwar Mir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Global Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
And Sea Level

On the sea level pressure of the southern oscillation

1986 ◽  
Vol 34 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 385-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. N. Krishnamurti ◽  
Shao-Hang Chu ◽  
W. Iglesias
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure

scholarly journals A New Globally Complete Monthly Historical Gridded Mean Sea Level Pressure Dataset (HadSLP2): 1850–2004

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (22) ◽  
pp. 5816-5842 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rob Allan ◽  
Tara Ansell
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Error Estimates ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Optimal Interpolation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Southeastern Pacific

Abstract An upgraded version of the Hadley Centre’s monthly historical mean sea level pressure (MSLP) dataset (HadSLP2) is presented. HadSLP2 covers the period from 1850 to date, and is based on numerous terrestrial and marine data compilations. Each terrestrial pressure series used in HadSLP2 underwent a series of quality control tests, and erroneous or suspect values were either corrected, where possible, or removed. Marine observations from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set were quality controlled (assessed against climatology and near neighbors) and then gridded. The final gridded form of HadSLP2 was created by blending together the processed terrestrial and gridded marine MSLP data. MSLP fields were made spatially complete using reduced-space optimal interpolation. Gridpoint error estimates were also produced. HadSLP2 was found to have generally stronger subtropical anticyclones and higher-latitude features across the Northern Hemisphere than an earlier product (HadSLP1). During the austral winter, however, it appears that the pressures in the southern Atlantic and Indian Ocean midlatitude regions are too high; this is seen in comparisons with both HadSLP1 and the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Over regions of high altitude, HadSLP2 and ERA-40 showed consistent differences suggestive of potential biases in the reanalysis model, though the region over the Himalayas in HadSLP2 is biased compared with HadSLP1 and improvements are required in this region. Consistent differences were also observed in regions of sparse data, particularly over the higher latitudes of the Southern Ocean and in the southeastern Pacific. Unlike the earlier HadSLP1 product, error estimates are available with HadSLP2 to guide the user in these regions of low confidence. An evaluation of major phenomena in the climate system using HadSLP2 provided further validation of the dataset. Important climatic features/indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, North Pacific index, Southern Oscillation index, Trans-Polar index, Antarctic Oscillation, Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, East Asian Summer Monsoon index, and the Siberian High index have all been resolved in HadSLP2, with extensions back to the mid-nineteenth century.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document