scholarly journals Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on stock market return volatility of Gulf Cooperation Council countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 45-56
Author(s):  
Tomader Elhassan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the asymmetric impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock market return volatility. The data included daily closing prices of the GCC stock market from the day of the acknowledgment of the first case of COVID-19 in each country to March 6, 2021. In addition, the study employed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family models. According to the Akaike information criterion, GARCH and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) were the most accurate models. The findings of the GARCH model indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic affected the GCC stock markets. The EGARCH model also confirmed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the GCC stock markets, confirming that the COVID-19 negatively affected GCC stock market returns. The value of the persistence of this volatility continued over a long period. This study has potential implications for investors and policymakers in diversifying investment portfolios and adopting strategies to maintain investor confidence during such crises. Moreover, mechanisms must be developed for reducing risks in financial markets in times of crisis, and central banks should take financial measures to mitigate risks to capital markets. AcknowledgmentsThis achievement was made with the aid of my family’s support, thank you all.

scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from Sub-Sahara Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Ifeanyichukwu Ali ◽  
Samuel M. Nzotta ◽  
A. B. C. Akujuobi ◽  
Chilaka E. Nwaimo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The main purpose of this paper was to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market return volatility in Sub-Sahara markets. The study concentrated on three stock markets including Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa using GARCH-X (1,1) model on monthly data from January 2000 to December 2017. Preliminary analyses from descriptive statistics show that show mean monthly returns are positive for all the stock markets. Skewness coefficients show that the stock returns and interest rates distribution of all Sub-Sahara Africa stock markets are negatively skewed but inflation rate is positively skewed for Nigeria and South Africa, and flat for Ghana. Excess kurtoses are positive for all the stock markets and macroeconomic indicators, and Jarque-Bera statistics indicate the stock markets’ series and macroeconomic indicators are not normally distributed. The Unit roots tests results indicate that all the stock markets and macroeconomic indicators are first difference stationary. The results of the GARCH-X (1,1) model show that macroeconomic variables do not significantly impact stock market returns volatility in Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa at the 5% significance Level. We therefore recommend that stock market regulators, market participants and investors should concentrate more efforts on other macroeconomic variables aside interest rate and inflation rate, in estimating stock market return volatility in Sub-Sahara Africa.

scholarly journals A note on the relationship between COVID-19 and stock market return: evidence from South Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Arafat Rahman ◽  
Md Mohsan Khudri ◽  
Muhammad Kamran ◽  
Pakeezah Butt
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The transformation of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) from a regional health crisis in a Chinese city to a global pandemic has caused severe damage not only to the natural and economic lives of human beings but also to the financial markets. The rapidly pervading and daunting consequences of COVID-19 spread have plummeted the stock markets to their lowest levels in many decades especially in South Asia. This concern motivates us to investigate the stock markets’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic in four South Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. This study aims to investigate the causal impact of the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on stock market returns using panel data of the countries stated above. Design/methodology/approach This study collects and analyzes the daily data on COVID-19 spread and stock market return over the period May 28, 2020 to October 01, 2020. Using Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel Granger non-causality test, the empirical results demonstrate that the COVID-19 spread measured through its daily confirmed cases in a country significantly induces stock market return. This paper cross-validates the results using the pairwise Granger causality test. Findings The empirical results suggest unidirectional causality from COVID-19 to stock market returns, indicating that the spread of COVID-19 has a dominant short-term influence on the stock movements. To the best of the knowledge, this study provides the first empirical insights into the impact of COVID-19 on the stock markets of selected South Asian countries taking the cross-sectional dependence into account. The results are also in line with the findings of other existing literature on COVID-19. Moreover, the results are robust across the two tests used in this study. Originality/value The findings are equally insightful to the fund managers and investors in South Asian countries. Taking into account the possible impact of COVID-19 on stock markets’ returns, investors can design their optimal portfolios more effectively. This study has another important implication in the sense that the impact of COVID-19 on the stock markets of South Asian countries may have spillover effects on other developing or even developed countries.

scholarly journals The Impact of Coronavirus Pandemic on Stock Market Return: The Case of the MENA Region

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
Amr Arafa ◽  
Nader Alber
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
June July ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to investigate the impact of Coronavirus spread on the stock markets of MENA region. Coronavirus has been measured by cumulative total cases, cumulative total deaths, new cases and new deaths, while stock market return is measured by Δ in the stock market index. This has been applied on stock markets of 7 countries (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Tunisia), on daily basis during the period from March 1, 2020, to July 24, 2020. Results indicate that stock market returns in the MENA countries tend to be negatively affected Coronavirus cumulative deaths and Coronavirus new deaths. A robustness check has been conducted for each country during the whole period, showing significant effect of Coronavirus cumulative cases in Jordan and Tunisia and significant effect of Coronavirus cumulative deaths in Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, without any evidence about the effects of Coronavirus new cases and Coronavirus new cases. After splitting the research period into 4 sub-periods (March, April, May, June- July 24), results support the impact of “cumulative Coronavirus cases” on stock market return in Jordan during May and in Morocco during April. Besides, the impact of “cumulative Coronavirus deaths” has been supported in in Morocco during April, and in Tunisia during March and June-July. Moreover, “new Coronavirus cases” seems to have a significant impact in Jordan during May and in Tunisia during March. Also, “new Coronavirus deaths” shows a significant effect in Morocco during May.

scholarly journals The Impact of Covid-19 Spread on Stock Markets: The Case of the GCC Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Nader Alber ◽  
Amr Saleh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Developed Stock Markets ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to investigate the effects of 2020 Covid-19 world-wide spread on stock markets of GCC countries. Coronavirus spread has been measured by cumulative cases, new cases, cumulative deaths and new deaths. Coronavirus spread has been measured by numbers per million of population, while stock market return is measured by Δ in stock market index. Papers conducted in this topic tend to analyze Coronavirus spread in the highly infected countries and focus on the developed stock markets. Countries with low level of infection that have emerging financial markets seem to be less attractive to scholars concerning with Coronavirus spread on stock markets. This is why we try to investigate the GCC stock markets reaction to Covid-19 spread.   Findings show that there are significant differences among stock market indices during the research period. Besides, stock market returns seem to be sensitive to Coronavirus new deaths. Moreover, this has been confirmed for March without any evidence about these effects during April and May 2020.

Effects of Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and Inflation on Stock Market Returns Volatility in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 38-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Izunobi Anthony Okechukwu ◽  
Nzotta Samuel Mbadike ◽  
Ugwuanyim Geoffrey ◽  
Benedict Anayochukwu Ozurumba
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
The Impact

This study employed GARCH (1.1) techniques to evaluate the existence of high stock market returns volatility, and the impact of the exchange rate, interest rate and inflation on stock market returns in Nigeria, using monthly series data from 1995 – 2014. Excessive volatility hinders the stock market from playing its role of Mobilizing, financial resources from surplus units to deficit units and may cause a financial crisis. The research finding shows that interest rate has a negative relationship with stock market returns, while the inflation rate and exchange rate have a positive relationship with stock market returns. The conclusion therefore is, there is high and persistent volatility in the Nigerian stock market returns. Exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation significantly impact stock market return volatility in Nigeria. The study recommends that regulatory authorities should take proactive steps to minimize stock market return in order to restore confidence in the market.

Convergence of Returns on Chinese and Russian Stock Markets with World Markets: National and Sectoral Perspectives

2013 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. R16-R34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Babecký ◽  
Luboš Komárek ◽  
Zlatuše Komárková
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
World Markets ◽  
The Impact

Interest in examining the financial linkages of economies has increased in the wake of the 2008/9 global financial crisis. Applying the concepts of beta- and sigma-convergence of stock market returns, we assess changes over time in the degree of stock market integration of Russia and China with each other, as well as with respect to the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan. Our analysis is based on national and sectoral data spanning the period September 1995 to October 2010. Overall, we find evidence for gradually increasing convergence of stock market returns after the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 1998 Russian financial crisis. Following a major disruption caused by the 2008/9 global financial crisis, the process of stock market return convergence resumes between Russia and China, as well as with world markets. Notably, the episode of sigma-divergence from the 2008/9 crisis is stronger for China than for Russia. We also find that the process of stock market return convergence and the impact of the recent crisis have not been uniform at the sectoral level, suggesting the potential for diversification of risk across sectors.

RESPONSE OF STOCK MARKET DURING COVID-19 AND 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS: A COMPARATIVE EVIDENCE FROM BRICS NATIONS

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
SANJEEV KUMAR ◽  
JASPREET KAUR ◽  
MOSAB I. TABASH ◽  
DANG K. TRAN ◽  
RAJ S DHANKAR
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
First Case ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

This study attempts to examine the response of stock markets amid the COVID-19 pandemic on prominent stock markets of the BRICS nation and compare it with the 2008 financial crisis by employing the GARCH and EGARCH model. First, average and variance of stock returns are tested for differences before and after the pandemic, t-test and F-test were applied. Further, OLS regression was applied to study the impact of COVID-19 on the standard deviation of returns using daily data of total cases, total deaths, and returns of the indices from the date on which the first case was reported till June 2020. Second, GARCH and EGARCH models are employed to compare the impact of COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crisis on the stock market volatility by using the data of respective stock indices for the period 2005–2020. The results suggest that the increasing number of COVID-19 cases and reported death cases hurt stock markets of the five countries except for South Africa in the latter case. The findings of the GARCH and EGARCH model indicate that for India and Russia, the financial crisis of 2008 has caused more stock volatility whereas stock markets of China, Brazil, and South Africa have been more volatile during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study has practical implications for investors, portfolio managers, institutional investors, regulatory institutions, and policymakers as it provides an understanding of stock market behavior in response to a major global crisis and helps them in taking decisions considering the risk of these events.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

A GARCH Modelling of Volatility and M-GARCH Approach of Stock Market Linkages of North America

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1538-1553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajaya Kumar Panda ◽  
Swagatika Nanda
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Highly Sensitive

The present study attempts to capture the return volatility and the extent of dynamic conditional correlation between the stock markets of North America region. The data contain weekly stock market returns spanning from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of June 2016. Using univariate ARCH and GARCH approaches, the study finds evidence of return volatility and its persistence within the region. Mexican stock market neither reacts intensely to immediate market fluctuations nor the part of the realized past volatility spill over to the current period, whereas the stock markets of Canada and USA experience high persistence of return volatility and Bermuda stock market returns are highly sensitive to the immediate market fluctuations. Using MGARCH-DCC, this article finds that emerging markets are less linked to the developed market in terms of return and that there also exists a weak co-movement between the stock markets. There is no evidence of market integration throughout the sample period. Correlations tend to spread out equally throughout the sample period, but the co-variances were found to be more volatile during 2008–2010. This article reveals that changes in co-movement are not due to a change in the correlations between markets but is simply due to volatility.

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