scholarly journals A multi-model integration method for monthly streamflow prediction: modified stacking ensemble strategy

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 310-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujie Li ◽  
Zhongmin Liang ◽  
Yiming Hu ◽  
Binquan Li ◽  
Bin Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Integration Method ◽  
Model Integration ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Ensemble Strategy ◽  
Monthly Streamflow Forecasting

Abstract In this study, we evaluate elastic net regression (ENR), support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) models and propose a modified multi-model integration method named a modified stacking ensemble strategy (MSES) for monthly streamflow forecasting. We apply the above methods to the Three Gorges Reservoir in the Yangtze River Basin, and the results show the following: (1) RF and XGB present better and more stable forecast performance than ENR and SVR. It can be concluded that the machine learning-based models have the potential for monthly streamflow forecasting. (2) The MSES can effectively reconstruct the original training data in the first layer and optimize the XGB model in the second layer, improving the forecast performance. We believe that the MSES is a computing framework worthy of development, with simple mathematical structure and low computational cost. (3) The forecast performance mainly depends on the size and distribution characteristics of the monthly streamflow sequence, which is still difficult to predict using only climate indices.

scholarly journals Remote-Sensing-Based Streamflow Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 4147
Author(s):  
Mohammed M. Alquraish ◽  
Mosaad Khadr
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Monthly Streamflow Forecasting

In this study, we aimed to investigate the hydrological performance of three gridded precipitation products—CHIRPS, RFE, and TRMM3B42V7—in monthly streamflow forecasting. After statistical evaluation, two monthly streamflow forecasting models—support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN)—were developed using the monthly temporal resolution data derived from these products. The hydrological performance of the developed forecasting models was then evaluated using several statistical indices, including NSE, MAE, RMSE, and R2. The performance measures confirmed that the CHIRPS product has superior performance compared to RFE 2.0 and TRMM data, and it could provide reliable rainfall estimates for use as input in forecasting models. Likewise, the results of the forecasting models confirmed that the ANN and SVM both achieved acceptable levels of accuracy for forecasting streamflow; however, the ANN model was superior (R2 = 0.898–0.735) to the SVM (R2 = 0.742–0.635) in both the training and testing periods.

scholarly journals Selected model fusion: an approach for improving the accuracy of monthly streamflow forecasting

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 917-933 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fereshteh Modaresi ◽  
Shahab Araghinejad ◽  
Kumars Ebrahimi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Generalized Regression Neural Network ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Model Fusion ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Monthly Streamflow Forecasting

Abstract Monthly streamflow forecasting plays an important role in water resources management, especially for dam operation. In this paper, an approach of model fusion technique named selected model fusion (SMF) is applied and assessed under two strategies of model selection in order to improve the accuracy of streamflow forecasting. The two strategies of SMF are: fusion of the outputs of best individual forecasting models (IFMs) selected by dendrogram analysis (S1), and fusion of the best outputs of all IFMs resulting from an ordered selection algorithm (S2). In both strategies, five data-driven models including: artificial neural network, generalized regression neural network, least square-support vector regression, K-nearest neighbor regression, and multiple linear regression with optimized structure are performed as IFMs. The SMF strategies are applied for forecasting the monthly inflow to Karkheh reservoir, Iran, owning various patterns between predictor and predicted variables in different months. Results show that applying SMF approach based on both strategies results in more accurate forecasts in comparison with fusion of all IFMs outputs (S3), as the benchmark. However, comparison of the two SMF strategies reveals that the implementation of strategy (S2) considerably improves the accuracy of forecasts than strategy (S1) as well as the best IFM results (S4) in all months.

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