scholarly journals Estimation of norovirus and Ascaris infection risks to urban farmers in developing countries using wastewater for crop irrigation

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 572-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Mara ◽  
Andrew Sleigh
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Wastewater Treatment ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Diarrhoeal Disease ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Pond System ◽  
Complementary Inputs

A quantitative microbial risk analysis—Monte Carlo method was used to estimate norovirus and Ascaris infection risks to urban farmers in developing countries watering their crops with wastewater. For a tolerable additional disease burden of≤10−4 DALY loss per person per year (pppy), equivalent to 1 percent of the diarrhoeal disease burden in developing countries, a norovirus reduction of 1–2 log units and an Ascaris egg reduction to 10–100 eggs per litre are required. These are easily achieved by minimal wastewater treatment—for example, a sequential batch-fed three tank/pond system. Hygiene improvement through education and regular deworming are essential complementary inputs to protect the health of urban farmers.

scholarly journals Estimation of Ascaris infection risks in children under 15 from the consumption of wastewater-irrigated carrots

2009 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Mara ◽  
Andrew Sleigh
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Wastewater Treatment ◽  
Ascaris Lumbricoides ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Infection Risk ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Disability Adjusted Life ◽  
Disability Adjusted Life Year

Ascaris lumbricoides, the large human roundworm, infects ∼1,200 million people, with children under the age of 15 being particularly at risk. Monte Carlo quantitative microbial risk analyses were undertaken to estimate median Ascaris infection risks in children under 15 from eating raw carrots irrigated with wastewater. For a tolerable additional disease burden of 10−5 DALY (disability-adjusted life year) loss per person per year (pppy), the tolerable Ascaris infection risk is ∼10−3 pppy, which can be achieved in hyperendemic areas by a 4-log unit Ascaris reduction. This reduction can be easily achieved by wastewater treatment in a 1-day anaerobic pond and 5-day facultative pond (2 log units) and peeling prior to consumption (2 log units).

Improving Flood-Risk Analysis for Confluence Flooding Control Downstream Using Copula Monte Carlo Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 04017018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Peng ◽  
Kai Chen ◽  
Hongxiang Yan ◽  
Xianliang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Analysis

scholarly journals Monte Carlo Method in Risk Analysis for Investment Projects

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 393-400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Platon ◽  
Andreea Constantinescu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Investment Projects

scholarly journals A Hybrid Method for Evaluating of Lightning Performance of Overhead Lines based on Monte Carlo Procedure

2016 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 246-252
Author(s):  
Reza Shariatinasab ◽  
Pooya Tadayon ◽  
Akihiro Ametani
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hybrid Method ◽  
Overhead Lines ◽  
Monte Carlo Procedure ◽  
Acceptable Accuracy ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Analytical Relations

Abstract This paper proposes a hybrid method for calculating lightning performance of overhead lines caused by direct strokes by combining Lattice diagram together with the Monte Carlo method. In order to go through this, firstly, the proper analytical relations for overvoltages calculation are established based on Lattice diagram. Then, the Monte Carlo procedure is applied to the obtained analytical relations. The aim of the presented method that will be called ‘ML method’ is simply estimation of the lightning performance of the overhead lines and performing the risk analysis of power apparatus with retaining the acceptable accuracy. To confirm the accuracy, the calculated results of the presented ML method are compared with those calculated by the EMTP/ATP simulation.

Market Risk Analysis to Hydropower Project Based on Monte Carlo Method - Case Study of Xiluodu Hydropower Station in Sichuan Province

2012 ◽  
Vol 472-475 ◽  
pp. 1437-1440
Author(s):  
Zi Yi Li ◽  
Song Jiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Hydropower Station ◽  
Hydropower Project ◽  
Project Investment

Hydropower project investment decisions facing the market risk mainly for electricity price volatility. In this thesis, we are using Monte Carlo method analyzes market risk of XiLuoDu hydropower project. Result shows the practicability and effectiveness of Monte Carlo method.

scholarly journals Risk management of a torrential flood construction project using the Monte Carlo simulation

2016 ◽  
pp. 29-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Baumgertel ◽  
Nada Dragovic ◽  
Tijana Vulevic
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Flow Profile ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Relevant Variables

Projects for the regulation of torrent basins carry various unforeseen adverse effects that may result in breached deadlines, increased costs, a reduction of quality etc. The paper presents the basic characteristics and most frequent risks associated with erosion control. Furthermore, it provides an overview of risk management through its basic stages - starting from risk identification and risk analysis to risk responses, including the methods used for risk analysis. As a part of quantitative methods for risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method is presented as the one most frequently used in simulations. The Monte Carlo method is a stochastic simulation method consisting of the following stages: the identification of criterion and relevant variables, the allocation of probability for relevant variables, the determination of correlation coefficient among relevant variables, simulation execution and result analysis. This method was applied in the analysis of the total cost of the project for the basin regulation of the Dumaca River in order to determine the funding that would be used as a backup in case of unforeseen events with a negative impact. The project for the regulation of the Dumaca River includes basin regulation in the form of complex flow profile and the lining of zones where necessary in terms of stability. The total cost is presented as a sum of costs of all works (preliminary works, earthworks, masonry works, concrete works and finishing works). The Monte Carlo simulation for cost analysis is carried out using the Oracle Crystal Ball software with its basic steps described in the paper. A sum of funding needed as a financial backup in case of unforeseen events with negative effects is obtained as the simulated total cost of the project.

Methodology of risk analysis by Monte Carlo Method applied to power generation with renewable energy

2014 ◽  
Vol 69 ◽  
pp. 347-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edinaldo José da Silva Pereira ◽  
João Tavares Pinho ◽  
Marcos André Barros Galhardo ◽  
Wilson Negrão Macêdo
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis
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