scholarly journals Anticipated maximum scale precipitation for calculating the worst-case floods

Water Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuniyoshi Takeuchi ◽  
Shigenobu Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Areal Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Rains

Abstract Against increasing number of unprecedented heavy rains and typhoons reflecting climate change, the Japanese Government decided saving life as the top priority considering a ‘worst-case’ scenario. Accordingly, the Flood Risk Management Act was amended in 2015 to use the anticipated maximum scale precipitation (AMSP) for flood inundation calculation. In order to estimate the AMSP, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) chose historical maximum areal precipitation in the form of duration–area–depth (DAD) curves rather than climate change projections' dataset d4PDF. In this paper, policy development and detailed estimation procedures for the AMSP were reviewed and discussed. It was concluded that the current climate change projections are still not accurate enough to be used as the basis for real local operations, while long accumulated ground observations and ground-based radars are available in good quality all over Japan. But at the same time, historical maximum should always be updated as past records are renewed. Also, regional partitioning should not be done at too coarse of scale for proper regionalization of DAD. Such strategy would serve as a useful reference for other nations.

Adaptation tipping points and opportunities for urban flood risk management

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 695-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Koukoui ◽  
Berry Gersonius ◽  
Paul P. Schot ◽  
Sebastiaan van Herk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Urban Flood

The effects of climate change are expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of floods, droughts and heat waves. An emerging method termed adaptation tipping point – opportunity (ATP-O) assesses a system's climate-incurred tipping points and uses opportunities arising from urban developments to introduce adaptation strategies while reducing investment costs. The objective of this research was to apply the ATP-O method to the city of Dordrecht in the Netherlands. The results show that the alternative adaptation strategy proposed (an overland drainage system) would be effective in coping with the effects of climate change where the current management strategy (disconnection of impervious surfaces from sewer systems) fails to do so. The ATP-O also proved helpful in identifying opportunities to adapt at lower costs. This research stimulated discussions between stakeholders on performance objectives, policy development, investment strategies, and flood risk management practices. The sensitivity analysis performed to support such discussion revealed that small variations in acceptability thresholds, associated with policy objectives, can have significant impact on ATP occurrence and timing.

scholarly journals Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haixing Liu ◽  
Yuntao Wang ◽  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Albert S. Chen ◽  
Guangtao Fu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Urban Surface

Governance of flood risk management in a time of climate change: the cases of Jakarta and Rotterdam

2012 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 518-536 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Ward ◽  
W. P. Pauw ◽  
M. W. van Buuren ◽  
M. A. Marfai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management

scholarly journals Flood Risk Management Methodology for Lakes and Adjacent Areas: The Lake Pamvotida Paradigm

Proceedings ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
George Papaioannou ◽  
Athanasios Loukas ◽  
Lampros Vasiliades
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Hydrodynamic Simulations ◽  
Flood Inundation Modeling ◽  
Inundation Modeling

In recent decades, natural hazards have caused major disasters in natural and man-made environments. Floods are one of the most devasting natural hazards, with high levels of mortality, destruction of infrastructure, and large financial losses. This study presents a methodological approach for flood risk management at lakes and adjacent areas that is based on the implementation of the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) in Greece. Contemporary engineering approaches have been used for the estimation of the inflow hydrographs. The hydraulic–hydrodynamic simulations were implemented in the following order: (a) hydrologic modeling of lake tributaries and estimation flood flow inflow to the lake, (b) flood inundation modeling of lake tributaries, (c) simulation of the lake as a closed system, (d) simulation of the lake outflows to the adjacent areas, and (e) simulation of flood inundation of rural and urban areas adjacent to the lake. The hydrologic modeling was performed using the HEC-HMS model, and the hydraulic-hydrodynamic simulations were implemented with the use of the two-dimensional HEC-RAS model. The simulations were applied to three soil moisture conditions (dry, medium and wet) and three return periods (T = 50, T = 100 and T = 1000 years) and a methodology was followed for the flood inundation modeling in urban areas. Upper and lower estimates on water depths, flow velocities and inundation areas are estimated for all inflow hydrographs and for varying roughness coefficient values. The proposed methodology presents the necessary steps and the results for the assessment of flood risk management and mapping for lake and adjacent urban and rural areas. The methodology was applied to Lake Pamvotida in Epirus, Greece, Ioannina.

scholarly journals Building an Intelligent Hydroinformatics Integration Platform for Regional Flood Inundation Warning Systems

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li-Chiu Chang ◽  
Fi-John Chang ◽  
Shun-Nien Yang ◽  
I-Feng Kao ◽  
Ying-Yu Ku ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Modular Design ◽  
Data Access ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Integration Platform ◽  
Flood Disasters

Flood disasters have had a great impact on city development. Early flood warning systems (EFWS) are promising countermeasures against flood hazards and losses. Machine learning (ML) is the kernel for building a satisfactory EFWS. This paper first summarizes the ML methods proposed in this special issue for flood forecasts and their significant advantages. Then, it develops an intelligent hydroinformatics integration platform (IHIP) to derive a user-friendly web interface system through the state-of-the-art machine learning, visualization and system developing techniques for improving online forecast capability and flood risk management. The holistic framework of the IHIP includes five layers (data access, data integration, servicer, functional subsystem, and end-user application) and one database for effectively dealing with flood disasters. The IHIP provides real-time flood-related data, such as rainfall and multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps. The interface of Google Maps fused into the IHIP significantly removes the obstacles for users to access this system, helps communities in making better-informed decisions about the occurrence of floods, and alerts communities in advance. The IHIP has been implemented in the Tainan City of Taiwan as the study case. The modular design and adaptive structure of the IHIP could be applied with similar efforts to other cities of interest for assisting the authorities in flood risk management.

Variations of disinfection by-product levels in small drinking water utilities according to climate change scenarios: a first assessment

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Delpla ◽  
A. Scheili ◽  
S. Guilherme ◽  
G. Cool ◽  
M. J. Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Water Treatment ◽  
Drinking Water Treatment ◽  
Water Utilities ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Small Water ◽  
Water Treatment Process

In Québec, Canada, shifts in climate patterns (i.e., rainfall increase) could have consequences on source water quality due to the intensification of surface/groundwater runoff contamination events, leading to a decline in drinking water treatment efficiency and ultimately disinfection by-products (DBPs) formation following treatment. To assess the impacts of climate change (CC) scenarios on DBP formation, a suite of models linking climate to DBPs was used. This study applies three emissions scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) for three 30-year horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080) in order to produce inputs to test several DBP models (total trihalomethanes (TTHMs), haloacetic acids and haloacetonitriles). An annual increase is estimated for all DBPs for each CC scenario and horizon. The highest seasonal increases were estimated for winter for all DBP groups or species. In the worst-case scenario (A2-2080), TTHMs could be affected more particularly during winter (+34.0%), followed by spring (+16.1%) and fall (+4.4%), whereas summer concentrations would remain stable (−0.3 to +0.4%). Potentially, small water utilities applying only a disinfection step could be more affected by rising TTHMs concentrations associated with CC than those having implemented a complete water treatment process (coagulation–flocculation, filtration and disinfection) with +13.6% and +8.2% increases respectively (A2-2080).

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