RAISING TRUTHFULNESS OF INVESTMENT PROJECT ESTIMATION IN CONDITIONS OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

Subject. The article analyzes the expected effect of a portfolio of projects in the face of risk and uncertainty, when using real options. Objectives. The purpose is to offer a more objective formula to assess the expected impact of a portfolio of projects for real investment objects under risk and uncertainty, using real options, and provide recommendations for improving the portfolio efficiency. Methods. The study draws on methods of real options and evaluation of investment projects through the real option value, the cash flow discounting method, synthesis, and mathematical modeling. Results. We systematized the main types of real options and developed a formula for calculating the expected effect of project portfolio implementation. The said formula shows that considering the additional long-term costs embedded in a portfolio of real options, which are associated with the use of these real options, and, therefore, reducing the overall risk of projects and the entire portfolio, permit to improve the objectivity of such calculations. Conclusions. When analyzing real options that have real assets as underlying instruments, it is often impossible to apply the computational formulae for financial options, as they differ significantly. The systematization of the main types of real options helps expand the range of application of management solutions. The offered formula enables to improve the efficiency of project insurance under risk and uncertainty and to use additional opportunities for effective development of the company.

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Improving the financial investment system as an object of business economics

Finance and Credit ◽

10.24891/fc.26.3.508 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 26 (3) ◽

pp. 508-526

Author(s):

O.T. Astanakulov ◽

E.G. Sheina

Keyword(s):

Deductive Reasoning ◽

Methodological Approach ◽

Investment Project ◽

Assessment Method ◽

Expert Assessment ◽

Business Economics ◽

Financial Investment ◽

Economic Relations ◽

Investment Projects ◽

Investment Control

Subject. This article explores the economic relations of economic entities concerning effective investment activities, combining elements of investment control and assessment of related risk. Objectives. The article aims to analyze and logically substantiate the stages and types of investment activities of enterprises and investment projects in-progress, as well as define a methodological approach to assessing project risks. Methods. For the study, we used a structural and logical analysis, and deductive reasoning. The methodological base of the study is based on the principles of the theory of finance, investment and risk management. Results. The article defines stages of assessing the financial condition of enterprises and proposes a methodological approach to assessing certain risks of an investment project based on the risk ranking by degree of probability and significance of an event through applying the expert assessment method. The article also presents a practice-oriented risk map for investment projects and clarifies the concept of Investment Control. Conclusions. The results of the study can help address the significant for the Russian economy issue of stimulating and developing investment activities at enterprises, as well as implementing and evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects at the micro-and macro-levels of the country's economy.

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