scholarly journals Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afzal S. Siddiqui ◽  
Chris Marnay
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Uncertain Future

scholarly journals Exploring the Next Wave of Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology: The Overlooked Potential of Scenario Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 183
Author(s):  
Horst Treiblmaier
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Future Developments ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Distributed Ledger ◽  
Distributed Ledger Technology ◽  
Ideal Tool ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
The Ideal

Blockchain is predicted to disrupt industries, economies, and societies. The properties of distributed ledgers allow the creation of immutable data structures that facilitate shared access in real time and enable a plethora of innovative applications. However, blockchain is not a uniform technology but rather a bundle of evolving components whose implications are notoriously hard to predict. At present, it is not clear how current trends will evolve, with technical evolution, legislation, and public policy being three contingency factors that make ongoing disruptive transformations particularly hard to predict. In light of blockchain’s potential disruptive impact, it is surprising that scenario analysis has hitherto been largely ignored in academic research. Therefore, in this paper, we introduce the technique, clarify several misconceptions, and provide examples illustrating how this method can help to overcome the limitations of existing technology impact research. We conclude that if applied correctly, scenario analysis represents the ideal tool to rigorously explore uncertain future developments and to create a comprehensive foundation for future research.

scholarly journals Alternative futures for global biological invasions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Núria Roura-Pascual ◽  
Brian Leung ◽  
Wolfgang Rabitsch ◽  
Lucas Rutting ◽  
Joost Vervoort ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biological Invasions ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Participatory Process ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Human Land Use ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Global Futures ◽  
Economic Developments

AbstractScenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, current global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. We used a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide breadth of plausible global futures through 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlighted that socio-economic developments and changes in sustainability policies and lifestyle have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known ecological drivers, such as climate and human land use change. Our scenarios align fairly well with the recently developed shared socio-economic pathways, but the factors that drive differences in biological invasions are underrepresented there. Including these factors in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments, and obtain a more integrative picture of future socio-ecological developments.

scholarly journals Alternative futures for global biological invasions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Núria Roura-Pascual ◽  
Brian Leung ◽  
Wolfgang Rabitsch ◽  
Lucas Rutting ◽  
Joost Vervoort ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biological Invasions ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Human Land Use ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Global Futures

AbstractScenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments.

Preparing for H1N1's Uncertain Future

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (14) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
DOUG CAMPOS-OUTCALT
Keyword(s):  
Uncertain Future

Chasing Angels: The Sweet Wine Angelica

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 74-78
Author(s):  
hank shaw
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
The Real ◽  
Mission Period ◽  
History Of ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Sweet Wine ◽  
Made In

Portugal has port, Spain has sherry, Sicily has Marsala –– and California has angelica. Angelica is California's original wine: The intensely sweet, fortified dessert cordial has been made in the state for more than two centuries –– primarily made from Mission grapes, first brought to California by the Spanish friars. Angelica was once drunk in vast quantities, but now fewer than a dozen vintners make angelica today. These holdouts from an earlier age are each following a personal quest for the real. For unlike port and sherry, which have strict rules about their production, angelica never gelled into something so distinct that connoisseurs can say, ““This is angelica. This is not.”” This piece looks at the history of the drink, its foggy origins in the Mission period and on through angelica's heyday and down to its degeneration into a staple of the back-alley wino set. Several current vintners are profiled, and they suggest an uncertain future for this cordial.

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