scholarly journals Estimating the COVID-19 spread through real-time population mobility patterns: surveillance in Low- and Middle- income countries (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanos Tyrovolas ◽  
Iago Giné-Vázquez ◽  
Daniel Fernández ◽  
Mariathi Morena ◽  
Ai Koyanagi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Control Policies ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Time Scan

BACKGROUND On January 30, 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) declared the current novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a public health emergency of international concern and later characterized it as a pandemic. Since then the virus has also rapidly spread among Latin American, Caribbean and African countries. OBJECTIVE The first aim of this study was to identify new emerging COVID-19 clusters over time and in space in Latin American, Caribbean, and African regions [mostly low and middle-income countries (LMICs)], using a prospective space-time scan measurement approach. The second aim was to assess the impact of real-time population mobility patterns between January 21st to May 18th, under the implemented government interventions, measurements and policy restrictions, on COVID-19 spread, among those regions and globally. METHODS We created a global COVID-19 database merging WHO daily case reports (of 218 countries, regions and territories) with other measures such as population density, country income levels for January 21st to May 15th, 2020. A score of government policy interventions was created ranging from “light”, “intermediate”, and “high”, to “very high” interventions. Prospective space-time scan statistic methods were applied in five time periods between January to May 2020 and a stepped-wedged regression mixed model analysis was used. RESULTS We found that COVID-19 emerging clusters within these five periods of time grew from 7 emerging clusters to 28 by mid-May. We also detected various increasing and decreasing relative risk estimates of COVID-19 spread among Latin American, Caribbean and African countries within the period of analysis. Globally, as well as regionally (Latin American, Caribbean and Africa), population mobility to parks and similar leisure areas during all the implemented control policies were related with accelerated COVID-19 spread. For countries in Africa, population mobility for work reasons during high and very high levels of implemented control policies were related with increased virus spread. CONCLUSIONS Prospective space-time scan is a measurement approach that LMICs countries could easily use to detect emerging clusters in a timely manner and implement specific control policies and interventions to slow down COVID-19 transmission. In addition, real time population mobility obtained from crowdsourced digital data could be useful for current and future targeted public health and mitigation policies among Latin American, Caribbean and African countries as well as globally.

Do Remittances Attract Foreign Direct Investment? An Empirical Investigation

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hem C. Basnet ◽  
Kamal P. Upadhyaya
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Latin American Countries

Remittances are a major source of household income in many Asian, African, and Latin American countries. Households spend a significant portion of remittances on health and education. Given that human capital is one of the primary determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, this study develops a model in which remittances are one of several determinants of the observed variation in FDI. The model is estimated using data from a group of 35 middle-income countries from Latin America, Asia–Pacific, and Africa. The estimated results ascribe no significance to remittances in explaining cross-country variation in FDI. However, geographically-disaggregated estimated results do establish a positive effect for African countries, no significant effect for Latin American countries, and a negative effect for the Asia–Pacific region.

scholarly journals Improved real-time influenza surveillance using Internet search data in eight Latin American countries

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Clemente ◽  
Fred Lu ◽  
Mauricio Santillana
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Machine Learning Method ◽  
Learning Method ◽  
Search Activity ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Search Data ◽  
Latin American Countries

AbstractA real-time methodology for monitoring flu activity in middle income countries that is simultaneously accurate and generalizable has not yet been presented. We demonstrate here that a self-correcting machine learning method leveraging Internet-based search activity produces reliable and timely flu estimates in multiple Latin American countries.

scholarly journals Spatial Externalities of Income Inequality on Security in Latin America

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 245
Author(s):  
Pablo Ponce ◽  
José Álvarez-García ◽  
Mary Cumbicus ◽  
María de la Cruz del Río-Rama
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Spatial Dependence ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Homicide Rate ◽  
World Health ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Spatial Error ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries

The aim of this research is to analyse the effect of income inequality on the homicide rate. The study is carried out in 18 Latin American countries for the period 2005–2018. The methodology used is the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) model and the data were obtained from World Development Indicators, the World Health Organization and the Inter-American Development Bank. Thus, the dependent variable is the homicide rate and the independent variable is income inequality. In addition, some control variables are included, such as: poverty, urban population rate, unemployment, schooling rate, spending on security and GDP per capita, which improve the consistency of the model. The results obtained through GLS model determine that inequality has a negative and significant effect on the homicide rate for high-income countries (HIC) and lower-middle-income countries (LMIC), whereas it is positive and significant for upper-middle-income countries (UMIC). On the other hand, the control variables show different results by group of countries. In the case of unemployment, it is not significant in any group of countries. Negative spatial dependence was found regarding spatial models such as: the spatial lag (SAR) and spatial error (SEM) method. In the spatial Durbin model (SDM), positive spatial dependence between the variables was corroborated. However, spatial auto-regressive moving average (SARMA) identified no spatial dependence. Under these results it is proposed: to improve productivity, education and improve the efficiency of security-oriented resources.

scholarly journals Foreign aid on economic growth in Africa: A comparison of low and middle-income countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 449-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aye Mengistu Alemu ◽  
Jin-Sang Lee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Theoretical Hypothesis

Previous empirical studies on the effects of foreign aid on economic growth have generated mixed results that make it difficult to draw policy recommendations. The main reason for such mixed results is the choice of a single aggregate list of countries, regardless of the disparities in levels of development. This study therefore fills the development gap by disaggregating the African data into a panel of 20 middle- income and 19 low- income African countries over a period of 15 years between 1995 and 2010, and employing a dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) model to address the dynamic nature of economic growth as well as the problems of endogeneity. The results of this study support the theoretical hypothesis that a positive relationship between aid and GDP growth exists, but only for low-income African countries, not middle-income ones. On the other hand, the study reveals that middle- income African countries tend to experience a greater impact on their economic growth from foreign direct investment (FDI) and natural resources revenues, mainly oil exports. This implies that the frequent criticism that foreign aid has not contributed to economic growth is flawed, at least in the case of low-income African countries. In fact, foreign aid has played a critical role in stimulating economic growth in such countries through supplementing domestic sources of finance such as savings, thus increasing the amount of investment and capital stock in them.

scholarly journals Preventing Multimorbidity with Lifestyle Interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A New Challenge for Public Health in Low and Middle-Income Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 12449
Author(s):  
Ahmad Alkhatib ◽  
Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi ◽  
Brian Mujuni ◽  
Geofrey Amanya ◽  
Charles Ibingira
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Lifestyle Interventions ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Non Communicable Diseases ◽  
Economic Disparity ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan

Objectives: Low and Middle-Income Countries are experiencing a fast-paced epidemiological rise in clusters of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease, forming an imminent rise in multimorbidity. However, preventing multimorbidity has received little attention in LMICs, especially in Sub-Saharan African Countries. Methods: Narrative review which scoped the most recent evidence in LMICs about multimorbidity determinants and appropriated them for potential multimorbidity prevention strategies. Results: MMD in LMICs is affected by several determinants including increased age, female sex, environment, lower socio-economic status, obesity, and lifestyle behaviours, especially poor nutrition, and physical inactivity. Multimorbidity public health interventions in LMICs, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa are currently impeded by local and regional economic disparity, underdeveloped healthcare systems, and concurrent prevalence of communicable and non-communicable diseases. However, lifestyle interventions that are targeted towards preventing highly prevalent multimorbidity clusters, especially hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, can provide early prevention of multimorbidity, especially within Sub-Saharan African countries with emerging economies and socio-economic disparity. Conclusion: Future public health initiatives should consider targeted lifestyle interventions and appropriate policies and guidelines in preventing multimorbidity in LMICs.

scholarly journals Novel multiplex real-time PCR assays reveal a high prevalence of diarrhoeagenic Escherichia coli pathotypes in healthy and diarrhoeal children in the South of Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vu Thuy Duong ◽  
Le Thi Phuong Tu ◽  
Ha Thanh Tuyen ◽  
Le Thi Quynh Nhi ◽  
James I Campbell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Real Time Pcr ◽  
Clinical Samples ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Virulence Markers ◽  
Low Middle Income Countries ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Pcr Assays

Abstract BackgroundDiarrhoeagenic Escherichia coli (DEC) infections are common in children in low-middle income countries (LMICs). However, detecting the various DEC pathotypes is complex as they cannot be differentiated by classical microbiology. We developed four multiplex real-time PCR assays were to detect virulence markers of six DEC pathotypes; specificity was tested using DEC controls and other enteric pathogens. PCR amplicons from the six E. coli pathotypes were purified and amplified to be used to optimize PCR reactions and to calculate reproducibility. After validation, these assays were applied to clinical samples from healthy and diarrhoeal Vietnamese children and associated with clinical data. ResultsThe multiplex real-time PCRs were found to be reproducible, and specific. At least one DEC variant was detected in 34.7% (978/2,815) of the faecal samples from diarrhoeal children; EAEC, EIEC and atypical EPEC were most frequent Notably, 41.2% (205/498) of samples from non-diarrhoeal children was positive with a DEC pathotype. In this population, only EIEC, which was detected in 34.3% (99/289) of diarrhoeal samples vs. 0.8% (4/498) non-diarrhoeal samples (p<0.001), was significantly associated with diarrhoea. Multiplex real-time PCR when applied to clinical samples is an efficient and high-throughput approach to DEC pathotypes. ConclusionsThis approach revealed high carriage rates of DEC pathotypes among Vietnamese children. We describe a novel diagnostic approach for DEC, which provides baseline data for future surveillance studies assessing DEC burden in LMICs.

Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Inequality: Evidence from a Group of Middle-Income Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 511-538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao-Hsi Huang ◽  
Kai-Fang Teng ◽  
Pan-Long Tsai
Keyword(s):  
Income Distribution ◽  
Transition Economies ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Reference Group ◽  
Outward Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Latin American Countries

Using panel data of a group of 39 middle-income countries over 1981–2006, this paper examines how globalization in general and inward and outward FDI in particular affects inequality. Depending on geographical region and economic system, each component of globalization affects inequality in three groups of countries in different ways: open to inward FDI tends to affect income distribution adversely in transition economies and Latin American countries, but marginally improves income distribution in countries of the reference group. In contrast, open to outward FDI is positively associated with inequality in the reference group whereas negatively associated with that of the other two groups of countries. Crucially, improvement in human capital appears to be the single most reliable way to reduce inequality.

scholarly journals Global hydrocephalus epidemiology and incidence: systematic review and meta-analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 130 (4) ◽  
pp. 1065-1079 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. Dewan ◽  
Abbas Rattani ◽  
Rania Mekary ◽  
Laurence J. Glancz ◽  
Ismaeel Yunusa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Burden Of Disease ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Annual Incidence ◽  
Congenital Hydrocephalus ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Pediatric Hydrocephalus ◽  
Low And Middle Income

OBJECTIVEHydrocephalus is one of the most common brain disorders, yet a reliable assessment of the global burden of disease is lacking. The authors sought a reliable estimate of the prevalence and annual incidence of hydrocephalus worldwide.METHODSThe authors performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to estimate the incidence of congenital hydrocephalus by WHO region and World Bank income level using the MEDLINE/PubMed and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews databases. A global estimate of pediatric hydrocephalus was obtained by adding acquired forms of childhood hydrocephalus to the baseline congenital figures using neural tube defect (NTD) registry data and known proportions of posthemorrhagic and postinfectious cases. Adult forms of hydrocephalus were also examined qualitatively.RESULTSSeventy-eight articles were included from the systematic review, representative of all WHO regions and each income level. The pooled incidence of congenital hydrocephalus was highest in Africa and Latin America (145 and 316 per 100,000 births, respectively) and lowest in the United States/Canada (68 per 100,000 births) (p for interaction < 0.1). The incidence was higher in low- and middle-income countries (123 per 100,000 births; 95% CI 98–152 births) than in high-income countries (79 per 100,000 births; 95% CI 68–90 births) (p for interaction < 0.01). While likely representing an underestimate, this model predicts that each year, nearly 400,000 new cases of pediatric hydrocephalus will develop worldwide. The greatest burden of disease falls on the African, Latin American, and Southeast Asian regions, accounting for three-quarters of the total volume of new cases. The high crude birth rate, greater proportion of patients with postinfectious etiology, and higher incidence of NTDs all contribute to a case volume in low- and middle-income countries that outweighs that in high-income countries by more than 20-fold. Global estimates of adult and other forms of acquired hydrocephalus are lacking.CONCLUSIONSFor the first time in a global model, the annual incidence of pediatric hydrocephalus is estimated. Low- and middle-income countries incur the greatest burden of disease, particularly those within the African and Latin American regions. Reliable incidence and burden figures for adult forms of hydrocephalus are absent in the literature and warrant specific investigation. A global effort to address hydrocephalus in regions with the greatest demand is imperative to reduce disease incidence, morbidity, mortality, and disparities of access to treatment.

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