Models As Autonomous Adaptive Mediators And Cognitive Instruments For Systems Science

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Systems Science

Theory and Applications of Systems Science

1974 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 663-664
Author(s):  
FREMONT KAST
Keyword(s):  
Systems Science

scholarly journals COVID-19 and future pandemics: a global systems approach and relevance to SDGs

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tharanga Thoradeniya ◽  
Saroj Jayasinghe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Governance ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Rna Virus ◽  
Modern Human ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
World Population ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Physical Environments ◽  
Corporate Interests

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic is adversely impacting modern human civilization. A global view using a systems science approach is necessary to recognize the close interactions between health of animals, humans and the environment. Discussion A model is developed initially by describing five sequential or parallel steps on how a RNA virus emerged from animals and became a pandemic: 1. Origins in the animal kingdom; 2. Transmission to domesticated animals; 3. Inter-species transmission to humans; 4. Local epidemics; 5. Global spread towards a pandemic. The next stage identifies global level determinants from the physical environments, the biosphere and social environment that influence these steps to derive a generic conceptual model. It identifies that future pandemics are likely to emerge from ecological processes (climate change, loss of biodiversity), anthropogenic social processes (i.e. corporate interests, culture and globalization) and world population growth. Intervention would therefore require modifications or dampening these generators and prevent future periodic pandemics that would reverse human development. Addressing issues such as poorly planned urbanization, climate change and deforestation coincide with SDGs such as sustainable cities and communities (Goal 11), climate action (Goal 13) and preserving forests and other ecosystems (Goal 15). This will be an added justification to address them as global priorities. Some determinants in the model are poorly addressed by SDGs such as the case of population pressures, cultural factors, corporate interests and globalization. The overarching process of globalization will require modifications to the structures, processes and mechanisms of global governance. The defects in global governance are arguably due to historical reasons and the neo-liberal capitalist order. This became evident especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 when the vaccination roll-out led to violations of universal values of equity and right to life by some of the powerful and affluent nations. Summary A systems approach leads us to a model that shows the need to tackle several factors, some of which are not adequately addressed by SDGs and require restructuring of global governance and political economy.

scholarly journals Modeling Community-Scale Natural Resource Use in a Transboundary Southern African Landscape: Integrating Remote Sensing and Participatory Mapping

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 631
Author(s):  
Kyle D. Woodward ◽  
Narcisa G. Pricope ◽  
Forrest R. Stevens ◽  
Andrea E. Gaughan ◽  
Nicholas E. Kolarik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Resource Use ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
Participatory Mapping ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Human Habitation

Remote sensing analyses focused on non-timber forest product (NTFP) collection and grazing are current research priorities of land systems science. However, mapping these particular land use patterns in rural heterogeneous landscapes is challenging because their potential signatures on the landscape cannot be positively identified without fine-scale land use data for validation. Using field-mapped resource areas and household survey data from participatory mapping research, we combined various Landsat-derived indices with ancillary data associated with human habitation to model the intensity of grazing and NTFP collection activities at 100-m spatial resolution. The study area is situated centrally within a transboundary southern African landscape that encompasses community-based organization (CBO) areas across three countries. We conducted four iterations of pixel-based random forest models, modifying the variable set to determine which of the covariates are most informative, using the best fit predictions to summarize and compare resource use intensity by resource type and across communities. Pixels within georeferenced, field-mapped resource areas were used as training data. All models had overall accuracies above 60% but those using proxies for human habitation were more robust, with overall accuracies above 90%. The contribution of Landsat data as utilized in our modeling framework was negligible, and further research must be conducted to extract greater value from Landsat or other optical remote sensing platforms to map these land use patterns at moderate resolution. We conclude that similar population proxy covariates should be included in future studies attempting to characterize communal resource use when traditional spectral signatures do not adequately capture resource use intensity alone. This study provides insights into modeling resource use activity when leveraging both remotely sensed data and proxies for human habitation in heterogeneous, spectrally mixed rural land areas.

scholarly journals Country transition index based on hierarchical clustering to predict next COVID-19 waves

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo A. Rios ◽  
Tatiane Nogueira ◽  
Danilo B. Coimbra ◽  
Tiago J. S. Lopes ◽  
Ajith Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hierarchical Clustering ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
Collateral Damage ◽  
Science And Engineering ◽  
University Center ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
The World ◽  
Transition Index

AbstractCOVID-19 has widely spread around the world, impacting the health systems of several countries in addition to the collateral damage that societies will face in the next years. Although the comparison between countries is essential for controlling this disease, the main challenge is the fact of countries are not simultaneously affected by the virus. Therefore, from the COVID-19 dataset by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, we present a temporal analysis on the number of new cases and deaths among countries using artificial intelligence. Our approach incrementally models the cases using a hierarchical clustering that emphasizes country transitions between infection groups over time. Then, one can compare the current situation of a country against others that have already faced previous waves. By using our approach, we designed a transition index to estimate the most probable countries’ movements between infectious groups to predict next wave trends. We draw two important conclusions: (1) we show the historical infection path taken by specific countries and emphasize changing points that occur when countries move between clusters with small, medium, or large number of cases; (2) we estimate new waves for specific countries using the transition index.

scholarly journals Continuous integration in urban social-ecological systems science needs to allow for spacing co-existence

AMBIO ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dagmar Haase
Keyword(s):  
Urban Sustainability ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Urban Systems ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
Ecological Research ◽  
Mutual Relationship ◽  
Continuous Integration ◽  
Social Ecological Systems ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Interdisciplinary Journal

AbstractUrbanization brings benefits and burdens to both humans and nature. Cities are key systems for integrated social-ecological research and the interdisciplinary journal of Ambio has published ground-breaking contributions in this field. This reflection piece identifies and discusses integration of the human and natural spheres in urban social-ecological research using the following foundational papers as important milestones: Folke et al. (1997), Ernstson et al. (2010) and Andersson et al. (2014). These papers each take unique approaches that aim to uncover core properties—processes, structures, and actors—of urban systems and set them into mutual relationship. This piece will end with a forward-looking vision for the coming 50 years of urban sustainability and resilience study in Ambio.

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