Expenditure Per Capita Model with Spatial Small Area Estimation

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Ahmad Risal
Keyword(s):  
Small Area ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Small Area Estimation ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
Direct Estimation

Indonesia is one of many countries around the world that attempt to suffer from high poverty rates. Since, poverty information in a certain area is a point of interest to researchers and policy makers. One problem faced is for the development program to be carried out more effectively and efficiently, it is necessary to have data availability up to the micro-scale. The technique used to reach the goal is Small Area Estimation (SAE). Fay-herriot (FH) model is one method on Small Area Estimation. Since, the SAE techniques require “borrow strength” across neighbor areas so thus Fay-Herriot model approach was developed by integrating spatial information into the model. This method known as Spatial Fay-Herriot Model (SFH) or Spatial Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (SEBLUP). This study aims to compare MSE of direct estimation, FH, and SFH Model to see which method gives the best result in estimating expenditure. The MSE value of the estimated SFH is smaller than direct estimation and FH, but it does not significant. It means adding spatial information in the small area estimation model does not give a better prediction than the simple small area estimation which is takes account the area as a specific random effect.

scholarly journals Simulation Study of Robust Geographically Weighted Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor on Small Area Estimation

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-60
Author(s):  
Naima Rakhsyanda ◽  
Kusman Sadik ◽  
Indahwati Indahwati
Keyword(s):  
Small Area ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Small Area Estimation ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
Spatial Effects ◽  
Best Linear Unbiased Predictor ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
Best Linear Unbiased

Small area estimation can be used to predict the population parameter with small sample sizes. For some cases, the population units that are close spatially may be more related than units that are further apart. The use of spatial information like geographic coordinates are studied in this research. Outlier contaminations can affect small area estimations. This study was conducted using simulation methods on generated data with six scenarios. The scenarios are the combination of spatial effects (spatial stationary and spatial non-stationary) with outlier contamination (no outlier, symmetric outliers, and non-symmetric outliers). The purpose of this study was to compare the geographically weighted empirical best linear unbiased predictor (GWEBLUP) and robust GWEBLUP (RGWEBLUP) with direct estimator, EBLUP, and REBLUP using simulation data. The performance of the predictors is evaluated using relative root mean squared error (RRMSE). The simulation results showed that geographically weighted predictors have the smallest RRMSE values for scenarios with spatial non-stationary, therefore offer a better prediction. For scenarios with outliers, robust predictors with smaller RRMSE values offer more efficiency than non-robust predictors.

scholarly journals MEMODELKAN TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN DI KOTA DENPASAR DENGAN PENDUGAAN AREA KECIL EMPIRICAL BAYES

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
REYNALDO PANJI WICAKSONO ◽  
I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA ◽  
I PUTU EKA NILA KENCANA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Small Area Estimation ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
Direct Estimation ◽  
Selection Of

Economic development are described by the unemployment rate. The higher unemployment rate, the weaker economic conditions. Nowadays more policies require information on small areas. The direct estimation does not provide accurate results in smaller areas. Thus the small area estimation becomes an alternative to estimate the parameters. The accuracy depends on the selection of the predictors. In 2019, the unemployment rate in Denpasar is 2,22%. The result shows that the unemployment rate in each district in Denpasar varies from 0,1% to 0,3%

scholarly journals PENERAPAN MODEL SPATIAL LOGIT-NORMAL PADA SMALL AREA ESTIMATION DENGAN METODE HIERARCHICAL BAYES

2020 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-66
Author(s):  
Taly Purwa
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Small Area Estimation ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Deviance Information Criterion ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Hierarchical Bayes ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
Spatial Random Effect

Penelitian ini menerapkan model Spatial Logit-normal pada Small Area Estimation (SAE) untuk estimasi proporsi penduduk dengan asupan kalori minimum di bawah 1.400 kkal/kapita/hari pada level kecamatan di Provinsi Bali Tahun 2014 yang merupakan indikator 2.1.2(A) pada tujuan ke-2 SDGs dalam rangka mengukur capaian dan mendukung tercapainya target SDGs pada level lebih tinggi. Terdapat tiga model SAE yang digunakan dengan spesifikasi random effect yang berbeda, yaitu model dengan random effect yang bersifat saling bebas (independen), spatial random effect (iCAR) serta model dengan kedua jenis random effect sekaligus (BYM). Penggunaan unsur spatial random effect diharapkan dapat meningkatkan efisiensi hasil estimasi. Metode estimasi menggunakan pendekatan Hierarchical Bayes (HB) dengan metode Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algoritma Gibbs Sampling. Estimasi parameter pada ketiga model menunjukkan hasil yang relatif tidak berbeda dimana hanya ada satu variabel prediktor yang memiliki pengaruh signifikan, yaitu proporsi keluarga pertanian, pada model dengan random effect independen dan model BYM. Sedangkan pada model iCAR tidak ada satu pun variabel prediktor yang berpengaruh signifikan. Berdasarkan nilai Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), model terbaik adalah model BYM. Akan tetapi penambahan unsur spatial random effect bersamaan dengan random effect independen tidak secara signifikan dapat meningkatkan efisiensi hasil estimasi akibat dari minimnya nilai dependensi spasial Moran’s I. Secara visual, pemetaan hasil estimasi dengan model terbaik tidak menunjukkan adanya pola persebaran atau pengelompokan tertentu pada level kecamatan.

scholarly journals Who are and where are the Rwanda’s poorest? A Small Area Estimation Method

2019 ◽  
pp. 245-264
Author(s):  
Mongongo Dosa Pacifique ◽  
Rutagarama Ephrem
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Small Area Estimation ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Household Heads

As Rwanda is achieving its vision of moving from a low to a middle–income country during the period 2000–2020, its capability of ending poverty along the Sustainable Development Goals’ era (2015–2030) mostly depends on how well the increasing prosperity will be shared among Rwandans along the way up to the 2030 horizon. Knowing those who have not yet benefited enough from the ongoing progress should help Rwanda’s policy makers and other development agencies to serve that purpose. With this perspective, this work has the two major objectives of estimating poverty by sector and studying the relationship between poverty and related variables in Rwanda. We tackle the first objective with the Small Area Estimation method (SAE) and covers the second with the Poisson regression. We find that (1) most of the very poor are located within rural areas, (2) live in larger households and, (3) have female household heads.

scholarly journals A small area estimation model of comorbidity for England

The Lancet ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 388 ◽  
pp. S80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karyn Morrissey ◽  
Ferran Espuny ◽  
Paul Williamson ◽  
Sahran Higgins
Keyword(s):  
Small Area ◽  
Small Area Estimation ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Area Estimation

ESTIMASI ANGKA PARTISIPASI KASAR PERGURUAN TINGGI PROVINSI PAPUA MELALUI SMALL AREA ESTIMATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-109
Author(s):  
Budi Subandriyo
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Small Area Estimation ◽  
Auxiliary Variable ◽  
Best Linear Unbiased Predictor ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
Direct Estimation ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Best Linear Unbiased

Angka Partisipasi Kasar (APK) m0erupakan salah satu indikator statistik yang digunakan untuk melihat besarnya tingkat partisipasi pendidikan pada suatu wilayah. Besar atau kecilnya nilai APK perguruan tinggi menunjukkan seberapa mudah penduduk untuk mengakses Pendidikan di perguruan tinggi. Hal ini sesuai dengan tujuan pembangunan berkelanjutan (Sustainable Development Goals) yang memiliki program untuk terus meningkatkan kesempatan belajar, salah satunya pendidikan di perguruan tinggi. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan upaya peningkatan akses pendidikan di universitas dan perguruan tinggi melalui penyediaan data APK-PT yang akurat. Apabila dilihat berdasarkan daerah tingkat provinsi, Provinsi Papua merupakan provinsi dengan APK-PT dua terbawah di antara provinsi lainnya yaitu sebesar 19,03 persen. Akan tetapi, ketersediaan data APK-PT hingga tingkar kabupaten atau kota masih belum tersedia karena kurangnya ukuran sampel. Salah satu upaya untuk mengoptimalkan sampel yang tersedia dan menghasil estimasi APK-PT di tingkat kabupaten/kota yaitu dengan menggunakan metode Small Area Estimation (SAE) berbasis area level. Pada penelitian ini digunakan data Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional (SUSENAS) 2018 untuk memperoleh estimasi langsung (direct estimation) APK-PT dan Potensi Desa (PODES) 2018 di Provinsi Papua sebagai variabel penyerta (auxiliary variable) dalam pemodelan SAE. Metode SAE yang digunakan adalah Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor – Fay Herriot (EBLUP-FH) dan EBLUP benchmarking seperti EBLUP Difference Benchmarking (EBLUP-DB), EBLUP You-Rao Benchmarking (EBLUP-YR), dan EBLUP Augmented Bencharking (EBLUP-AB). Berdasarkan hasil penelitian disimpulkan bahwa penggunaan estimasi SAE yang cocok pada data APK-PT di Provinsi Papua adalah model EBLUP Augmented Benchmarking dengan nilai rata-rata MSE terendah yaitu sebesar 22,06 persen.

Book Reviews

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 946-948
Keyword(s):  
Social Exclusion ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Small Area Estimation ◽  
Material Deprivation ◽  
Absolute Poverty ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
New Methods

Enrica Chiappero-Martinetti of the University of Pavia reviews “Poverty and Social Exclusion: New Methods of Analysis,” by Gianni Betti and Achille Lemmi. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Fifteen papers explore new methods for estimating poverty at the local level and examine recent multidimensional methods of the dynamics of poverty. Papers discuss measuring multidimensional deprivation with dichotomized and ordinal variables; poverty and the dimensionality of welfare; income, material deprivation, and social exclusion in Israel; multidimensional and fuzzy measures of poverty and inequality at the national and regional level in Mozambique; assessing the time-dimension of poverty; intertemporal material deprivation; measuring chronic poverty; measuring intertemporal poverty—policy options for the poverty analyst; measuring levels and trends in absolute poverty in the world—open questions and possible alternatives; small area methodology in poverty mapping—an introductory overview; small area estimation of poverty using the ELL/PovMap method and its alternatives; estimation of poverty measures in small areas; the use of spatial information for the estimation of poverty indicators at the small area level; outlier robust semiparametric small area methods for poverty estimation; and poverty and social exclusion in 3D—multidimensional, longitudinal, and small area estimation.”

scholarly journals Identification of Disaggregated Hotspots of Child Morbidity in Bangladesh: An Application of Small Area Estimation Method

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumonkanti Das ◽  
Bappi Kumar ◽  
Luthful Alahi Kawsar
Keyword(s):  
Small Area ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Small Area Estimation ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
National Level ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Response Variable ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
Child Morbidity ◽  
Administrative Units

AbstractAcute respiratory infection (ARI) and diarrhoea are two major causes of child morbidity and mortality in Bangladesh. National and regional level prevalence of ARI and diarrhoea are calculated from nationwide surveys; however, prevalence at micro-level administrative units (say, district and sub-district) is not possible due to lack of sufficient data. In such case, small area estimation (SAE) methods can be applied by combining a survey data with a census data. Using a SAE method for dichotomous response variable, this study aims to estimate the proportions of under-5 children experienced with ARI and diarrhoea separately as well as either ARI or diarrhoea within a period of two-week preceding the survey. The ARI and diarrhoea information extracted from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2011 are used to develop a random effect logistic model for each of the indicators, and then the prevalence is estimated adapting the World Bank SAE approach for the dichotomous response variable using the 5% data of the Census 2011. The estimated prevalence of each indicator significantly varied by district and sub-district (1.4-11.3% for diarrhoea, 2.2-11.8% for ARI and 4.3-16.5% for ARI/diarrhoea at sub-district level). In a number of districts and sub-district, the proportions are found double the national level. District and sub-district levels spatial distributions of the indicators might help the policy makers to identify the vulnerable disaggregated and remote hotspots. Particularly, aid industries can provide effective interventions at the highly vulnerable spots to overcome the gaps between micro and macro level administrative units.

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