scholarly journals Rational speculative bubbles: A critical view

2007 ◽  
Vol 52 (174-175) ◽  
pp. 73-99
Author(s):  
Ognjen Radonjic
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Institutional Factors ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Rational Bubbles ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Rational Bubble ◽  
Fundamental Value

According to the theory of rational bubbles, the bubble is present whenever asset prices progressively diverge from their fundamental value, which occurs because agents expect that asset prices will continue to grow exponentially (self-fulfilling prophecies) far in the future and consistently, which promises the realization of ever larger capital gains. In our opinion, the basic shortcoming of this theory refers to the assumption that all market agents are perfectly informed and rational and, accordingly, form homogeneous expectations. The model does not explain decision-making processes or expectation formation, nor does it detect potential psychological and institutional factors that might significantly influence decision making processes and market participants? reactions to news. Since assumptions of the model critically determine its validity, we conclude that comprehensiveness of the rational bubble model is, to put it mildly, limited.

scholarly journals Competing for kayabo: gendered struggles for fish and livelihood on the shore of Lake Victoria

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 321-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Modesta Medard ◽  
Han van Dijk ◽  
Paul Hebinck
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Lake Victoria ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Financial Capital ◽  
Nile Perch ◽  
Domestic Markets ◽  
Fish Resources ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Abstract The dry-salted trade of Nile perch or kayabo is important for many along the shores of Lake Victoria. The kayabo trade started in the 1990s and has been increasingly restructured due to changing regional and global trade relationships. This shift has led to the emergence of hierarchical trading relations, which create an exploitative network in which powerful middlemen control the access of trade for women from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and marginalizes the Tanzanian women, changing the organization from a poly-centric to a more centralized trade organization in the hands of a small group of powerful business men. We show in this paper that whereas the women traders from the DRC manoeuvred themselves in positions from which they could manipulate the network through bribery and conniving to derive substantial capital gains from the kayabo trade, their Tanzanian counterparts however are excluded from the decision-making processes, access to fish resources, financial capital, and negotiation power. They persevere by operating in increasingly competitive markets, relying on illegal fish that they sell with little profit at local and domestic markets. They survive in jobs that are insecure and risky by nature.

scholarly journals On Testing for Speculative Bubbles

1990 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert P Flood ◽  
Robert J Hodrick
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Free Markets ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Current State ◽  
Rational Bubble

The possibility that movements in prices could be due to the self-fulfilling prophecies of market participants has long intrigued observers of free markets. This paper surveys the current state of the empirically-oriented literature concerning rational dynamic indeterminacies, by which we mean a situation of self-fulfilling prophecy within a rational expectations model. Empirical work in this area concentrates primarily on indeterminacies in price levels, exchange rates, and equity prices. We first examine a particular type of explosive indeterminacy, usually called a rational bubble, in an example of the market for equities. Then, we consider empirical work relating to price-level and exchange-rate indeterminacies and empirical studies of indeterminacies in stock prices. Finally, we take up some interpretive issues.

Cognitive Processing of Miscommunication in Interactive Listening: An Evaluation of Listener Indecision and Cognitive Effort

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Roche ◽  
Arkady Zgonnikov ◽  
Laura M. Morett
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Processing ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Cognitive Effort ◽  
Mouse Tracking ◽  
Computer Mouse ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Computer Mouse Tracking ◽  
Listening Task ◽  
Processing Effort

Purpose The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the social and cognitive underpinnings of miscommunication during an interactive listening task. Method An eye and computer mouse–tracking visual-world paradigm was used to investigate how a listener's cognitive effort (local and global) and decision-making processes were affected by a speaker's use of ambiguity that led to a miscommunication. Results Experiments 1 and 2 found that an environmental cue that made a miscommunication more or less salient impacted listener language processing effort (eye-tracking). Experiment 2 also indicated that listeners may develop different processing heuristics dependent upon the speaker's use of ambiguity that led to a miscommunication, exerting a significant impact on cognition and decision making. We also found that perspective-taking effort and decision-making complexity metrics (computer mouse tracking) predict language processing effort, indicating that instances of miscommunication produced cognitive consequences of indecision, thinking, and cognitive pull. Conclusion Together, these results indicate that listeners behave both reciprocally and adaptively when miscommunications occur, but the way they respond is largely dependent upon the type of ambiguity and how often it is produced by the speaker.

“It's Not Humanly Possible to Do Everything”: Perspectives on Intervention Decision-Making Processes of Parents of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erinn Finke ◽  
Kathryn Drager ◽  
Elizabeth C. Serpentine
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individualized Education Program ◽  
Children With Autism ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Spectrum Disorders ◽  
Interview Methodology ◽  
Communication Interventions

Purpose The purpose of this investigation was to understand the decision-making processes used by parents of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) related to communication-based interventions. Method Qualitative interview methodology was used. Data were gathered through interviews. Each parent had a child with ASD who was at least four-years-old; lived with their child with ASD; had a child with ASD without functional speech for communication; and used at least two different communication interventions. Results Parents considered several sources of information for learning about interventions and provided various reasons to initiate and discontinue a communication intervention. Parents also discussed challenges introduced once opinions of the school individualized education program (IEP) team had to be considered. Conclusions Parents of children with ASD primarily use individual decision-making processes to select interventions. This discrepancy speaks to the need for parents and professionals to share a common “language” about interventions and the decision-making process.

Predicting Rapid Decision-Making Processes Required by the Dismounted Objective Force Warrior

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliza Beth Littleton ◽  
Jared T. Freeman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Training rapid decision-making processes required by the dismounted objective force leader

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard E. Christ ◽  
Alvah C. Bittner ◽  
Jared T. Freeman ◽  
Rick Archer ◽  
Gary Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Processes

The influence of resources limitation on decision-making processes in Artificial Grammar Learning Task

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Poplawska ◽  
Marta Roczniewska ◽  
Radoslaw Sterczynski
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Learning Task ◽  
Artificial Grammar Learning ◽  
Artificial Grammar ◽  
Grammar Learning ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Decision-Making Processes Associated With Use of Nutrition Facts Panels by Younger and Older Adults

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa M. S. Miller ◽  
Diana L. Cassady ◽  
Gina Lim ◽  
Doanna T. Thach ◽  
Tanja N. Gibson
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Family decision-making: Processes and outcomes

1992 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Ganzel ◽  
Janis E. Jacobs
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Family Decision ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Family Decision Making
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