scholarly journals Are China and India decoupling from the United States?

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-78
Author(s):  
Kıvanç Arıç ◽  
Serkan Taştan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Literature ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
China And India ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

After the 2008 global economic crisis, there has been an attention on decoupling conditions between emerging and advanced economies in the economic literature. There have been different conclusions about decoupling. In this study, we analyzed the conditions decoupling China and India from the United States. We used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach for the period of 1960-2014. According to the results of the analysis, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), export, and import indicators have no long-term relationship with China?s and India?s GDP.

Effect of economic crisis on suicide cases: An ARDL bounds testing approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Şenol Demirci ◽  
Murat Konca ◽  
Birol Yetim ◽  
Gülnur İlgün
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

Background: Suicide events observed in various groups, community or countries, especially in the periods of economic recession. It is thought that suicide cases increase when people’s income decreases dramatically and they lose their jobs. Aim/Objective: In this study, it was aimed to investigate whether the 2008 economic crisis had any effect on suicides in the United States. Methods: Autoregressive distributed lag method was used. For the purpose of the study, the number of suicide-related deaths was taken as the dependent variable, while unemployment rates and 2008 economic crisis were taken as independent variables. Findings: The short-term and long-term relationships obtained within the scope of the study indicated that the 2008 economic crisis had a statistically significant effect on suicide cases in the United States. Results and Conclusion: It can be said that the results of this study are consistent with the information which emphasizes that economic crises increase suicide cases in the literature.

scholarly journals Stock Market Investment and Inflation: Evidence from the United States and Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 339-365
Author(s):  
Janesh Sami
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Stock Market Investment ◽  
Robust Evidence

This paper examines the long-run relationship between goods prices and stock prices to understand whether stock market investment can help hedge against inflation in the United States (US) and Canada. This study employed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration test developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001), and finds evidence of a positive long-run economic relationship between stock prices and goods prices in both economies over the sample period 1960 to 2019. The long-run elasticity is above one for both economies implying that the developments in the goods market significantly affect the stock market. We undertake a suite of sensitivity checks and find robust evidence that the stock market investment can help hedge against inflation in the United States and Canada.

scholarly journals Examining the Relationship between Financial Development and International Trade in Croatia

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Mile Bosnjak ◽  
Ivan Novak
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between financial development and international trade in Croatia over the period from the first quarter of 1997 and the last quarter of 2015. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to examine the long-run and short-run relationships among the series. The research hypothesis is accepted and the relationship between financial development and international trade in Croatia is established and confirmed. The research results reveal unidirectional Granger causality from financial development to international trade at the 10% significance level, and negative long-run and the positive short-run relationships between financial developments and international trade in Croatia.

THE IMPACT OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON INDONESIA-US TRADE PERFORMANCE

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-93
Author(s):  
Septika Tri Ardiyanti
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
The United States ◽  
Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Trade Performance ◽  
Exchange Value ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
The Impact

Studi ini mengkaji dampak volatilitas nilai tukar riil terhadap kinerja perdagangan bilateral Indonesia-Amerika Serikat (AS), dengan menggunakan data periode Q1:1990 sampai dengan Q3:2012. Studi ini menggunakan dua pendekatan untuk mengukur volatilitas nilai tukar riil, yaitu model Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH-1) dan metode Moving Average Standards Deviation (MASD). Untuk menguji hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel penelitian, digunakan prosedur Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas nilai tukar riil berpengaruh negatif terhadap impor Indonesia dari AS tetapi tidak mempengaruhi ekspor Indonesia ke AS. Dengan demikian, semakin volatile nilai tukar maka volume impor Indonesia dari AS semakin rendah. Jika Indonesia ingin menjaga neraca perdagangan, maka dianjurkan untuk mempertahankan kebijakan nilai tukar yang mengambang dan terkendali. This sudy examines the impact of real exchange value volatilities on bilateral trade performance between Indonesia and the United States utilizing the data period between Q1:1990 to Q3 2012. This study deploys two approach to measure real exchange values volatilities, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH-1) and Moving Average standard Deviation methods. To test the long terms relationship between variables, it uses Autogressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure. The result shows that real exchange values volatilities has negative influence on Indonesia’s import from the United States but does not affect the Indonesia’s export to the United States. Hence, the more volatile an exchange value leads to a decrease of Indonesia’s import volume from the United States. If Indonesia attempts to balance its trade, it needs to keep intact monetary policies afloat and controllable.

scholarly journals Indonesian Export Analysis: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syarifah Labibah ◽  
Abd. Jamal ◽  
Taufiq C. Dawood
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Auto Regressive

There are some factors predicted tohave an effect on the countries’ economic devlopment. This study aimed to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of In-flation, Exchange Rate, and Foreign Economic Growth (the destination of the United States, China, and Japan) on the Indonesian Export. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model is used in this analysis from 1968 through 2017. The results of the analysis show that in the long-term, the inflation and the economic growth in China as well in Japan has a positive sign and significant effect on Indonesian exports. In addition, in the short-term, the US exchange rate and economic growth have a positive significant effect on Indonesian exports.

scholarly journals Contribution of Beef, Mutton, and Poultry Meat Production to the Agricultural Gross Domestic Product of Pakistan Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach

SAGE Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824401987719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Rehman ◽  
Zhang Deyuan ◽  
Abbas Ali Chandio
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Poultry Meat ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Meat Production ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

Meat is considered an important nutrient of human’s life to gain energy. It accounts as a significant portion of the typical diet in the globe and provides vitamins, minerals, protein, and fats, which are important and have a beneficial effect on the well-being. The major aim of this article is to investigate and explore the association between beef, mutton, poultry meat production, and agricultural gross domestic product in Pakistan. An Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test was applied to check the variables’ stationarity, while an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration was used to investigate the association among the study variables. Furthermore, a forecasting technique was used to project the future production of beef, mutton, and poultry meat in Pakistan. Study results demonstrated the long-standing associations amid the variables. In the long-run analysis, the coefficient of beef production showed a positive effect on the agricultural gross domestic product, while the coefficients of mutton production and poultry meat production showed a nonsignificant association with the agricultural gross domestic product of Pakistan. By applying the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration that examines the association between agricultural gross domestic product, beef, mutton, and poultry meat production in Pakistan makes the present study distinctive.

scholarly journals CREDIT DOWNTURN IN THE AFTERMATH OF INDONESIAN CRISIS 1997 REVISITED: AN APPLICATION OF ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erwin Gunawan Hutapea
Keyword(s):  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Testing Data ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

Studi ini bertujuan mengestimasi persamaan jangka panjang permintaan kredit dan penawarankredit di Indonesia dengan menggunakan teknik pengujian kointegrasi yang relatif baru, yaitu teknik autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing. Data yang digunakan adalah data kuartalan pada periode 1985Q1-2004Q2.Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa permintaan kredit dan penawaran kredit memiliki hubungan jangka panjang (terkointegrasi) dengan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya. Selain itu, pengujian CUSUM dan CUSUMSQ menunjukkan bahwa koefisien kedua persamaan jangka panjang tersebut memiliki stabilitas. Plot estimasi permintaan kredit dan penawaran kredit menunjukkan bahwa lambatnya proses pemulihan penyaluran kredit setelah krisis di Indonesia lebih banyak disebabkan oleh lemahnya permintaan kredit.Keywords:ARDL, cointegration, bounds testing, ECM, credit, IndonesiaJEL Classification: C32, C52, E51

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