Decision Process, Choice, and Consequences: Israel's Deep-Penetration Bombing in Egypt, 1970

1978 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 483-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avi Shlaim ◽  
Raymond Tanter
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
National Security ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Deep Penetration ◽  
Air Power ◽  
War Of Attrition ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Political Dimensions ◽  
Expected Benefits ◽  
Benefits And Costs

Weapons systems have a great impact on national security decision making. In particular, the use of air power for political coercion or “compellence” is a tempting option when a nation has overwhelming aerial capabilities relative to an opponent. Israel's decision to launch air attacks deep within Egypt during the 1970 War of Attrition suggests that coercive bombing may not yield expected benefits and effect unanticipated costs. The decision process that produced the bombing choice was characterized by inadequate search for alternatives; conservative revision of opinion; faulty evaluation of consequences in terms of likelihood, benefits, and costs; a failure to consider value trade-offs between military and political dimensions; and overestimation of the probability of preferred outcomes, coupled with underestimation of the likelihood of undesirable outcomes.

The Effects of Decision Time on Perceptions of Decisions and Decision Makers in (Moral) Trade-Off Scenarios

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Katharina Spälti ◽  
Mark John Brandt ◽  
Marcel Zeelenberg
Keyword(s):  
Decision Process ◽  
Decision Time ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Process Information ◽  
Total N ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Financial Gain ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Sacred Values ◽  
Moral Context

People often have to make trade-offs. We study three types of trade-offs: 1) "secular trade-offs" where no moral or sacred values are at stake, 2) "taboo trade-offs" where sacred values are pitted against financial gain, and 3) "tragic trade-offs" where sacred values are pitted against other sacred values. Previous research (Critcher et al., 2011; Tetlock et al., 2000) demonstrated that tragic and taboo trade-offs are not only evaluated by their outcomes, but are also evaluated based on the time it took to make the choice. We investigate two outstanding questions: 1) whether the effect of decision time differs for evaluations of decisions compared to decision makers and 2) whether moral contexts are unique in their ability to influence character evaluations through decision process information. In two experiments (total N = 1434) we find that decision time affects character evaluations, but not evaluations of the decision itself. There were no significant differences between tragic trade-offs and secular trade-offs, suggesting that the decisions structure may be more important in evaluations than moral context. Additionally, the magnitude of the effect of decision time shows us that decision time, may be of less practical use than expected. We thus urge, to take a closer examination of the processes underlying decision time and its perception.

Renewable energy selection based on a new entropy and dissimilarity measure on an interval-valued neutrosophic set

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
ShuoYan Chou ◽  
Truong ThiThuy Duong ◽  
Nguyen Xuan Thao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Membership Function ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Dissimilarity Measure ◽  
Neutrosophic Set ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
And Performance

Energy plays a central part in economic development, yet alongside fossil fuels bring vast environmental impact. In recent years, renewable energy has gradually become a viable source for clean energy to alleviate and decouple with a negative connotation. Different types of renewable energy are not without trade-offs beyond costs and performance. Multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) has become one of the most prominent tools in making decisions with multiple conflicting criteria existing in many complex real-world problems. Information obtained for decision making may be ambiguous or uncertain. Neutrosophic is an extension of fuzzy set types with three membership functions: truth membership function, falsity membership function and indeterminacy membership function. It is a useful tool when dealing with uncertainty issues. Entropy measures the uncertainty of information under neutrosophic circumstances which can be used to identify the weights of criteria in MCDM model. Meanwhile, the dissimilarity measure is useful in dealing with the ranking of alternatives in term of distance. This article proposes to build a new entropy and dissimilarity measure as well as to construct a novel MCDM model based on them to improve the inclusiveness of the perspectives for decision making. In this paper, we also give out a case study of using this model through the process of a renewable energy selection scenario in Taiwan performed and assessed.

scholarly journals Using Deliberative Democracy for Better Urban Decision-Making through Integrative Thinking

Urban Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 3
Author(s):  
Janette Hartz-Karp ◽  
Dora Marinova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Deliberative Democracy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Capital City ◽  
City Region ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Urban Issues ◽  
Sustainability Challenges

This article expands the evidence about integrative thinking by analyzing two case studies that applied the collaborative decision-making method of deliberative democracy which encourages representative, deliberative and influential public participation. The four-year case studies took place in Western Australia, (1) in the capital city Perth and surrounds, and (2) in the city-region of Greater Geraldton. Both aimed at resolving complex and wicked urban sustainability challenges as they arose. The analysis suggests that a new way of thinking, namely integrative thinking, emerged during the deliberations to produce operative outcomes for decision-makers. Building on theory and research demonstrating that deliberative designs lead to improved reasoning about complex issues, the two case studies show that through discourse based on deliberative norms, participants developed different mindsets, remaining open-minded, intuitive and representative of ordinary people’s basic common sense. This spontaneous appearance of integrative thinking enabled sound decision-making about complex and wicked sustainability-related urban issues. In both case studies, the participants exhibited all characteristics of integrative thinking to produce outcomes for decision-makers: salience—grasping the problems’ multiple aspects; causality—identifying multiple sources of impacts; sequencing—keeping the whole in view while focusing on specific aspects; and resolution—discovering novel ways that avoided bad choice trade-offs.

Global Banking: Toward an Assessment of Benefits and Costs

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-175
Author(s):  
Claudia M. Buch ◽  
Linda S. Goldberg
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Studies ◽  
Cost And Benefit ◽  
Theoretical Literature ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Global Banking ◽  
Policy Frameworks ◽  
Key Dimensions ◽  
Benefits And Costs ◽  
Global Banks ◽  
Empirical Analyses

Global activities of banks are a core manifestation of broader patterns of globalization of production, trade, and finance. This article reviews the extensive recent empirical and theoretical literature on global banking, emphasizing the careful empirical analyses that incorporate key dimensions of heterogeneity among borrowers and lenders, and across activities. The actions of globally active banks are consequential, with cost and benefit trade-offs that differ during their lifetimes and at times of stress. Both research and policymaking around global banking benefit from improved infrastructures around collection of and access to granular data and repositories of evaluation studies. Although overall positive contributions from welfare perspectives arise from the activities of global banks, these organizations require appropriately targeted policy frameworks and oversight.

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