The Crisis of Democratization in the Greater Horn of Africa

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Greater Horn Of Africa

scholarly journals Influence of coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena on the Greater Horn of Africa droughts and their implications

2018 ◽  
Vol 610-611 ◽  
pp. 691-702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Freddie Mpelasoka ◽  
Joseph L. Awange ◽  
Ayalsew Zerihun
Keyword(s):  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Greater Horn Of Africa

Improving multimodel medium range forecasts over the Greater Horn of Africa using the FSU superensemble

2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (4) ◽  
pp. 441-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Kipkogei ◽  
A. Bhardwaj ◽  
V. Kumar ◽  
L. A. Ogallo ◽  
F. J. Opijah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Greater Horn Of Africa ◽  
Range Forecasts

scholarly journals Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 034037 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masilin Gudoshava ◽  
Herbert O Misiani ◽  
Zewdu T Segele ◽  
Suman Jain ◽  
Jully O Ouma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Greater Horn Of Africa

scholarly journals Seasonal Drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and Its Recent Increase during the March–May Long Rains

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (21) ◽  
pp. 7953-7975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradfield Lyon
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
New Findings ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Greater Horn Of Africa ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract This paper provides a review of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) conditions that are associated with meteorological drought on the seasonal time scale in the Greater Horn of Africa (the region 10°S–15°N, 30°–52°E). New findings regarding a post-1998 increase in drought frequency during the March–May (MAM) “long rains” are also reported. The period 1950–2010 is emphasized, although rainfall and SST data from 1901–2010 are used to place the recent long rains decline in a multidecadal context. For the latter case, climate model simulations and isolated basin SST experiments are also utilized. Climatologically, rainfall exhibits a unimodal June–August (JJA) maximum in west-central Ethiopia with a generally bimodal [MAM and October–December (OND) maxima] distribution in locations to the south and east. Emphasis will be on these three seasons. SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans show the strongest association with drought during OND in locations having a bimodal annual cycle, with weaker associations during MAM. The influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon critically depends on its ability to affect SSTs outside the Pacific. Salient features of the anomalous atmospheric circulation during drought events in different locations and seasons are discussed. The post-1998 decline in the long rains is found to be driven strongly (although not necessarily exclusively) by natural multidecadal variability in the tropical Pacific rather than anthropogenic climate change. This conclusion is supported by observational analyses and climate model experiments, which are presented.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of Intraseasonal Climate Variability over the Greater Horn of Africa

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (23) ◽  
pp. 5715-5731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared H. Bowden ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Negative Events ◽  
Eof Analysis ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Large Signal ◽  
Decadal Shift ◽  
Greater Horn Of Africa

Abstract This study examines the intraseasonal climate variability over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during the rainy season of October–December (OND). The investigation is primarily based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the pentad Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data for the period 1979–2001. The EOF analysis reveals two dominant modes of intraseasonal variability for the OND season: mixed El Niño–Southern Oscillation–Indian Ocean dipole (ENSO-IOD) and a decadal mode. The leading mode is associated with ENSO–IOD covariability. Case studies of several intraseasonal ENSO–IOD events within the recent decades indicate that during the warm (positive) events pentad rainfall is consistently above normal during the entire season despite fluctuations between pentads. However, case study analyses of negative ENSO–IOD events show that the negative cases are not mirror images of the warm events. The negative events exhibit pronounced wet and dry spells superimposed on the consistent dry anomaly background conditions. There is no large signal regarding the onset for either case, but the withdrawal of the positive (negative) events is anomalously wet (dry). The second mode of variability is associated with a decadal shift in the rainfall with the northern (southern) GHA becoming wetter (drier) in the recent decade. The decadal change in individual pentads can be quite different across the season and has a tendency to manifest itself through extreme events. The analysis underscores the need to exercise caution when applying seasonal-average-based statistics to infer the long-term behavior on subseasonal time scales. Additional analyses further confirm the decadal rainfall shift using four different rainfall datasets. Averaging the datasets to help aid in removing bias of individual datasets shows that, on average, northern (southern) portions of GHA are 29% (19%) wetter (drier) in the recent decade.

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