Investor Sophistication and Patterns in Stock Returns after Earnings Announcements

2000 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eli Bartov ◽  
Suresh Radhakrishnan ◽  
Itzhak Krinsky
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Explanatory Variable ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Institutional Ownership ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Institutional Holdings ◽  
Investor Sophistication

This study tests whether the observed patterns in stock returns after quarterly earnings announcements are related to the proportion of firm shares held by institutional investors, a variable used by prior research to proxy for investor sophistication. Our findings show that the institutional holdings variable is negatively correlated with the observed post-announcement abnormal returns. Our findings also show that traditional proxies for transaction costs (i.e., trading volume, stock price) as well as firm size have little incremental power to explain post-announcement abnormal returns when institutional holdings is an explanatory variable. If institutional ownership is a valid proxy for investor sophistication, these findings suggest that the trading activity of unsophisticated investors underlies the predictability of stock returns after earnings announcements. However, tests evaluating the validity of institutional holdings as a proxy for investor sophistication yield only mixed results. This calls for caution in interpreting our findings.

Bank Stock Returns And Quarterly Earnings: Price Responses To Imminent Earnings Announcements

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas F. Gosnell ◽  
Andrea J. Heuson ◽  
Robert E. Lamy
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Price Reaction ◽  
Earnings Information ◽  
Bank Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price Reaction ◽  
Bank Stock

Numerous studies have documented that most of the stock price reaction to earnings announcements have occurred by the time the earnings information is made public. This study considers stock price reaction during the time period between the end of the accounting calendar when the forthcoming earnings information is ostensibly available to top management and the earnings release date to measure anticipatory price responses to imminent quarterly earnings announcements. Using bank stocks, the results indicate that portfolios composed of banks that eventually announce improved earnings show significant positive abnormal returns soon after the close of the accounting quarter while portfolios composed of banks that eventually publicize poor profit performance exhibit significant negative abnormal returns.

Institutional Holdings and Trading Volume Reactions to Quarterly Earnings Announcements

1997 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeong-Bon Kim ◽  
Itzhak Krinsky ◽  
Jason Lee
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Institutional Ownership ◽  
Positive Relation ◽  
Earnings Announcement ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Price Reaction ◽  
Institutional Holdings ◽  
Abnormal Trading Volume

This paper empirically examines the incremental relation between trading volume surrounding quarterly earnings announcements and institutional holdings. Consistent with Cready (1988) and Lee (1992), we find a significant positive relation between abnormal trading volume and the fraction of institutional ownership during the period immediately following an earnings announcement, after controlling for the magnitude of the associated price reaction and the dispersion of analysts' EPS forecasts. The results are robust to various measures of abnormal trading volume. Our findings suggest that newly released information does not necessarily have the same value to heterogeneous investor types and support Lev's (1988) emphasis on the importance of focusing on investor classes.

IMMEDIATE AND LONGER-TERM STOCK PRICE DYNAMICS FOLLOWING LARGE STOCK PRICE CHANGES

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (01) ◽  
pp. 2050002
Author(s):  
ANDREY KUDRYAVTSEV
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Conditional Volatility ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Price Reversal

The study explores the correlation between the immediate and the longer-term stock returns following large daily price moves. Following the previous literature, which documents a tendency for price reversals after initial large price moves, I suggest that if a large stock price move is immediately followed by a short-term price drift, then it may indicate that the company-specific shock is more completely incorporated in the stock price, significantly increasing the probability of subsequent longer-term price reversal. Analyzing a vast sample of large stock price moves, I document that negative (positive) longer-term stock price reversals after large price increases (decreases) are significantly more pronounced if the latter are immediately followed by relatively high (low) short-term cumulative abnormal returns, that is, by short-term price drifts. The effect remains significant after accounting for additional company-specific (size, market model beta, historical, or conditional volatility) and event-specific (stock’s return and trading volume on the event day) factors.

scholarly journals Quarterly Earnings Announcement Effect on Stock Return and Trading Volume in Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 32-47
Author(s):  
Jeetendra Dangol ◽  
Ajay Bhandari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Good News ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Earnings Announcement ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Analysis Methodology

The study examines the stock returns and trading volume reaction to quarterly earnings announcements using the event analysis methodology. Ten commercial banks with 313 earnings announcements are considered between the fiscal year 2010/11 and 2017/18. The observations are portioned into 225 earning-increased (good-news) sub-samples and 88 earning-decreased (bad-news) sub-samples. This paper finds that the Nepalese stock market is inefficient at a semi-strong level, but there is a strong linkage between quarterly earnings announcement and trading volume. Similarly, the study provides evidence of existence of information content hypothesis in the Nepalese stock market.

Dividend Initiations by High-Tech Firms

2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (02) ◽  
pp. 201-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Lacina ◽  
Zhaohui Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Dividend Initiations ◽  
Volume Reaction ◽  
Abnormal Trading Volume ◽  
Investor Reaction

We study the stock price and trading volume reactions to dividend initiations by high-tech firms relative to those by non-high tech firms. We find significant positive cumulative abnormal returns and abnormal trading volume for both high-tech and non-high tech firms surrounding dividend initiations. However, when we control for variables such as size and dividend yield, stock returns and trading volume around dividend initiations are higher for high-tech firms than for non-high tech firms. We also find evidence that stock returns and trading volume for high-tech firms are higher with increases in liquid assets, although the volume reaction to increases in liquid assets is stronger than the return reaction, perhaps indicating clientele shifts. Overall, our findings convey stronger investor reaction to dividend initiations by high-tech firms, especially those with sufficient liquid assets.

scholarly journals The correlation between stock returns before and after analyst recommendation revisions

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (228) ◽  
pp. 69-100
Author(s):  
Andrey Kudryavtsev
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Analyst Recommendation ◽  
Experience Recommendation ◽  
Recommendation Revisions

In this study I analyse the correlation between stock returns before and after analyst recommendation revisions. I hypothesise that if a recommendation revision for a given stock takes place after a short period when the stock?s price moves in the opposite direction, it may indicate that the fundamentals that caused the analyst to revise their recommendation are less completely (if at all) incorporated in the stock price, significantly increasing the probability of subsequent post-event price drift. Analysing a large sample of recommendation revisions, I document that both recommendation upgrades and downgrades are followed by significant one-tosix-month price drifts (reversals) if they are preceded by the opposite-sign (same-sign) short-term cumulative abnormal returns. The effect remains significant after accounting for additional relevant company specific (size, Market Model beta, historical volatility) and event-specific (stock?s return and trading volume on the event day, brokerage firm size, analyst experience, recommendation category before the revision, number of categories changed in the revision) factors.

Market reactions to changes in the Dow Jones industrial average index

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 792-812 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernest N. Biktimirov ◽  
Yuanbin Xu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Institutional Ownership ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Analyst Following ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
Index Changes ◽  
Investor Awareness

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine changes in stock returns, liquidity, institutional ownership, analyst following and investor awareness for companies added to and deleted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. Previous studies report conflicting evidence regarding the market reactions to changes in the DJIA index membership. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the event-study methodology to calculate abnormal returns and trading volume around the announcement and effective days of DJIA index changes from 1929 to 2015. It also tests for significant changes in liquidity, institutional ownership, analyst following and investor awareness in the 1990–2015 period. Multivariate regressions are used to perform a simultaneous analysis of competing hypotheses. Findings This study resolves the mixed results of previous DJIA index papers by documenting different stock price and trading volume reactions over the 1929–2015 period. Focusing on the most recent period, 1990–2015, the study finds that stocks added to (deleted from) the index experience a significant permanent stock price gain (loss). The observed stock price reaction seems to be associated with changes in liquidity proxies thus lending support for the liquidity hypothesis. Research limitations/implications Limited data availability for the periods prior to 1990 prevents this study from identifying the exact reasons for different stock price and trading volume reactions across subperiods of the 1929–2015 period. Originality/value This study provides the most comprehensive examination of market reactions to changes in the DJIA index and resolves the mixed results of previous studies. A better understanding of market reactions around the DJIA index changes can help both individual and institutional investors with developing effective trading strategies and index managing companies with designing optimal announcement policies.

Stock Market Reaction on Green-Bond Issue: Evidence from Indian Green-Bond Issuers

2021 ◽  
pp. 097226292110225
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar Verma ◽  
Rohit Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Bond Issue ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose: A green bond is a financial instrument issued by governments, financial institutions and corporations to fund green projects, such as those involving renewable energy, green buildings, low carbon transport, etc. This study analyses the effect of green-bond issue announcement on the issuer’s stock price movement. It shows the reaction of the stock price after the issue of green bonds. Methodology: This study is based on secondary data. Green-bond issue dates have been collected from newspaper articles from different online sources, such as Business Standard, The Economic Times, Moneycontrol, etc. The closing prices of stocks have been taken from the NSE (National Stock Exchange of India Limited) website. An event window of 21 days has been fixed for the study, including the 10 days before and after the issue date. Data analysis is carried out through the event study method using the R software. Calculation of abnormal returns is done using three models: mean-adjusted returns model, market-adjusted returns model and risk-adjusted returns model. Findings: The results show that the issue of green bonds has a significant positive effect on the stock price. Returns increase after the green-bond issue announcement. Although the announcement day shows a negative return for all the samples taken for the study, the 10-day cumulative abnormal return (CAR) is positive. Thus, green-bond issues lead to positive sentiments among investors. Research implications: This research article will help the government issue more green bonds so that the proceeds can be utilized for green projects. The government should motivate corporations and financial institutions to issue more green bonds to help the economy grow. In India, very few organizations have issued a green bond. It will be beneficial if these players issue green bonds, as it will increase the firms’ value and boost returns to the investors. Originality/value: The effect of green-bond issue on stock returns has been analysed in some studies in developed countries. This is the first study to examine the impact of green-bond issue on stock returns in the Indian context, to the best of our knowledge.

scholarly journals Measuring The Usefulness Of Information For Investors Inferences: The Case Of Quarterly Earnings Announcements

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Catherine Chiang ◽  
Yaw M. Mensah
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Value Of Information ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
New Method ◽  
Rates Of Return ◽  
Earnings Announcement ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Other Information

In this paper, we propose a new method for assessing the usefulness of information, its inferential value. In the context of accounting and finance, we define the inferential value of information about a firm as how efficaciously the information enables investors to draw correct inferences regarding its future financial performance. On the basis of this definition, we develop a stylized model to measure the proximity of a firm’s future realized rates of return to the estimated rates of return implied by its current stock price. We then use the new measure to test the hypothesis that quarterly earnings announcements have a higher inferential value than other information arriving during interim (non-earnings announcement) periods. Our empirical findings suggest that investors are able to make more informative inferences about a firm’s future profitability based on quarterly earnings announcement than based on information available during interim periods. However, our findings also suggest that, in general, investors do not correctly anticipate future losses. Finally, we find that earnings announcements are as important in anticipating future profitability for larger firms as they are for smaller firms.

scholarly journals The Effect of Volatility Expectations on Large Stock Price Changes

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Andrey Kudryavtsev
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Opposite Sign ◽  
Company Size ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Reversal ◽  
Future Outcomes

<p><em>My study explores the effect of future volatility expectations, embedded in VIX index, on large daily stock price changes and on subsequent stock returns. Following both psychological and financial literature claiming that good (bad) mood may cause people to perceive positive (negative) future outcomes as more probable and that the changes in the value of VIX may be negatively correlated with contemporaneous investors’ mood, I hypothesize that if a major positive (negative) stock price move takes place on a day when the value of VIX falls (rises), then its magnitude may be amplified by positive (negative) investors’ mood, creating price overreaction to the initial company-specific shock, which may result in subsequent price reversal. In line with my hypothesis, I document that both positive and negative large price moves accompanied by the opposite-sign contemporaneous changes in VIX are followed by significant reversals on the next two trading days and over five- and twenty-day intervals following the event, the magnitude of the reversals increasing over longer post-event windows, while large stock price changes taking place on the days when the value of VIX moves in the same direction are followed by non-significant price drifts. The results remain robust after accounting for additional company (size, beta, historical volatility) and event-specific (stock’s return and trading volume on the event day) factors, and are stronger for small and volatile stocks.</em></p>

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