Price Reversals After Extreme Price Shocks: Impact of Earnings Information With Time Series Evidence From Emerging Market

The purpose of the article is to analyze the relevance of earnings fundamentals in predicting extreme price reversals of an emerging stock market. We collect monthly price data on six sector indices from Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) of India for the period 2004–2019. The research decomposes industry stock returns into Potential Maximum Gains (PMG) and Potential Maximum Losses (PML) with price extremes at first and then tests price reversal behavior using Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The study finds symmetry between PMG and PML in the banking, realty, and oil sectors, while the asymmetric reversal behavior is noted in the automobiles and capital goods industries. The presence of industry fundamentals in the models estimating the reversal behavior of share prices enhances their predictive power, which suggests the significance of value strategies in making gains from extreme price variations. The price reversal behavior is sector specific and found inconsistent in emerging market. Hence, the investors cannot overlook the relevance of the industry characteristics and earnings fundamentals while predicting the stock price behavior in emerging markets.

MARKET OVERREACTION PADA IDX 30 (PERIODE PENELITIAN 2016-2019)

Ketersediaan informasi yang relevan pada suatu pasar modal khususnya pada sekuritas yang diperdagangkan sangatlah penting bagi investor, sehingga pasar modal dapat dikatakan efisien. Karakteristik investor dapat mengakibatkan pergerakan harga saham. Investor yang bersifat irasional dalam berinvestasi dapat menyebabkan terjadinya makret overreaction. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis keberadaan market overreaction pada IDX 30 periode penelitian 2016-2019. Pengambilan sampel pada penelitian ini menggunakan teknik purposive sampling dan mendapat sampel sebanyak 17 dari 45 populasi perusahaan yang terdaftar pada indeks IDX 30 selama 8 semester. Penelitian ini menggunakan abnormal returns winner, loser, dan loser-winner sebagai variabel penelitian. Pengujian statsitik untuk menguji perbedaan kumulasi rata-rata abnormal return saham winner, loser, dan loser-winner dengan menggunakan uji one sample t-test. Hasil penelitian ini menemukan gejala market overreaction pada ACAR portofolio winner, loser, dan ACAR loser-winner yang ditunjukkan dengan adanya pembalik harga (Price Reversal) pada setiap ACAR, namun pengujian signifikansi one sample t-test menunjukkan market overreaction yang terjadi tidaklah signifikan, yang ditunjukkan oleh t-hitung < t-tabel. Kata kunci: Market overreaction, Efisiensi Pasar, Price Reversal, Anomali Winner-Loser

PROFITABILITAS STRATEGI KONTRATRIAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

The efficient market hypothesis implies that no investor can get an abnormal return. This hypothesis has become a research topic that many researchers refer to. However, this hypothesis is strongly refuted after the discovery of several anomalies that are inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis. One of them was found by De Bondt and Thaler (1985), that stock prices have a certain tendency, namely that stocks that perform well in one period will become stocks that perform poorly in the next period. Vice versa. This phenomenon is called overreaction or overreaction. These findings motivated further researchers to apply contrarian strategies to gain an advantage when there was an overreaction. This research is a study that is intended to obtain evidence of the ability of contrarian strategies in obtaining abnormal returns. This study aims to analyze the occurrence of overreaction on stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and to analyze the advantages of implementing a contrarian strategy for investors. This research was conducted at companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The companies selected were 100 companies with the most active transactions during 2019. From the results of data analysis, it can be concluded that there was a price reversal for the shares listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This result is quite strong because it has been tested for up to 4 weeks. Despite the price reversal, the contrarian strategy was not able to generate significant returns for investors.Keywords :contrarian strategy, abnormal return, overreaction

Tick Size and Price Reversal after Order Imbalance

It is well known that intraday returns tend to reverse the following intraday period, conditional on excess buying pressure on the bid or ask side. This suggests that liquidity providers “overreact” to order imbalance (OIB) by initially altering quotes so much that a negative autocorrelation is seen in mid-price returns. We investigate under which circumstances this behavior is most common. Specifically, it seems the tick size augments “OIB-reversal”. However, if the tick size is binding for much of the trading day, it has the opposite effect of censoring such reversals. In addition, if market liquidity is high, the reversal becomes more frequent.

Short-Term Price Reaction to Filing for Bankruptcy and Restructuring Proceedings—The Case of Poland

This study aims to check market reaction to filing for bankruptcy and restructuring proceedings and to verify the short-term effect of a price reversal in the Polish market in the years 2004–2019. The research was conducted by dividing the analysed companies according to the procedure (bankruptcy and restructuring) and market (the main market and the NewConnect market). The research methodology used in the study is the event analysis method (AR, CAR, AAR and CAAR rates were used in the research), with a few statistical tests (T-test, Generalized rank Z Test, Generalized rank T-Test, Patell or Standardized Residual Test, Kolari and Pynnönen adjusted Patell or Standardized Residual Test). It was found that share prices in the Polish share market react quickly to public information about filing an application for bankruptcy or restructuring. For all analysed companies, the mean rate of return on the event day was equal to −14%, and on the next day, it was −3%. Regardless of the type of share market and the form of proceedings, the reversal effect was not confirmed in the short term. It was found that cumulative above-average rates of return fall more strongly for companies listed on the less liquid Newconnect market (−23.6%), and when information on the filing for bankruptcy proceedings is provided (−28.5%), as opposed to the main market (−19.1%) and restructuring proceedings (−17%). The cumulative average rate of return for all analysed companies in the research period (−2, +10 days) was equal to −20.6%.

Determinants of price reversal in high-frequency trading: empirical evidence from Indonesia

This article analyzes whether the factors of the mechanism of high-frequency trading (HFT) or intraday trading affect the process of price reversal and continuation. The price reversal phenomenon is gaining importance rapidly due to the increasingly intensive use of IT/Fintech-based trading automation facilities on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. However, one knows little about how their trading affects volatility and liquidity pressures that cause price reversals. A new research approach uses the factors of market microstructure mechanism based on high-frequency data (HFD-intraday). The research method uses purposive random sampling, which classified price fractions into three groups, specifically low price, medium price, and high price, which are analyzed by logistic panel regression. The research variables used include price reversal (dependent), stock return, trading volume, transaction frequency, volume/frequency (V/F) proxy, volatility, and liquidity. According to low price model research findings, all variables show a significant effect on price reversal; for medium price model, all variables except liquidity show a significant effect on price reversal; and for high price model, all variables have a significant effect on price reversal, except trading volume and volatility. In conclusion, low price shares tend to have higher price reversal probability compared to continuity because they tend to be liquid, low institutional ownership, and minimal reporting/analysis and are controlled by HFTs (uninformed traders). Some variables are not significant because of the bounce effect around the bid-ask spread. AcknowledgmentMany thanks to Armida S. Alisjahbana, Roy H. Sembel, Budiono, Rahardi S. Rahmanto, and the anonymous referee/reviewer for valuable inputs and feedback.

SHORT-TERM OVERREACTION OF ISLAMIC STOCKS TO SPECIFIC EVENTS IN INDONESIA

Overreaction is a phenomenon caused by stock market inefficiencies and also a reaction to certain events. Das and Krishnakumar (2016) explain that some overreaction phenomena violate the theory of capital market efficiency. As experienced by other stocks , Islamic stocks also probably experience market inefficiencies. This study aims to analyse the phenomenon of overreaction in Islamic stocks, as well as the factors that influence the phenomenon, by using a two-stage testing method: two paired sampling and cross-sectional regression. Two specific events which occurred in 2016-2018, and which were followed by price reversal and return reversal, are studied. The results show that the election of Donald Trump as US President (Event 1) and the bombingsin Surabaya (Event 2) were significant in the overreaction in the winner stock category. The factors that influenced the two events were different. The overreaction to Trump’s election proved to be significantly influenced by information leakage, while the bombings in Surabaya significantly affected the company ownership category . The results indicate that Islamic stocks continue to have several transactions which areprohibited by the DSN MUI fatwa in the short term.

IMMEDIATE AND LONGER-TERM STOCK PRICE DYNAMICS FOLLOWING LARGE STOCK PRICE CHANGES

The study explores the correlation between the immediate and the longer-term stock returns following large daily price moves. Following the previous literature, which documents a tendency for price reversals after initial large price moves, I suggest that if a large stock price move is immediately followed by a short-term price drift, then it may indicate that the company-specific shock is more completely incorporated in the stock price, significantly increasing the probability of subsequent longer-term price reversal. Analyzing a vast sample of large stock price moves, I document that negative (positive) longer-term stock price reversals after large price increases (decreases) are significantly more pronounced if the latter are immediately followed by relatively high (low) short-term cumulative abnormal returns, that is, by short-term price drifts. The effect remains significant after accounting for additional company-specific (size, market model beta, historical, or conditional volatility) and event-specific (stock’s return and trading volume on the event day) factors.

Short-term overreaction in equity ETFs following extreme one-day returns

This paper investigates the short-term price predictability of US equity Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs) in reaction to one-day extreme returns. We also assess the cross-section features associated to price overreaction following extreme price movements. The literature on the short-term overreaction of ETFs is rather scarce. Furthermore, existing studies tend to focus on delimited historical periods, which makes their results difficult to generalize. Our paper fills this gap by considering a comprehensive sample of ETFs over an extended period of time. In addition, we are the first to study the effect of the prevailing market trend and of liquidity on the patterns of overreaction and subsequent price reversal of ETFs. Being the major ETFs the most actively traded equity securities on the US stock exchanges, their performance and characteristics are of interest by themselves. Our findings suggest that market regulators should concentrate their resources on overseeing the ETF pricing that occurs after-hours. For market practitioners, our results indicate the existence of profitable market opportunities after large price movements. In the present study, we tested the significance of the mean returns for the period immediately after extreme returns. We also conducted a multivariate analysis where the price reversal was regressed against the cross section features of the ETFs under study. We contribute to the literature on ETF price formation as we document, for the first time, the existence of a stark contrast in the reaction to extreme price movements in these assets during normal hours and after-hours periods. On average, the extreme returns that occur in the after-hours period represent an overreaction, leading to a price reversal in the following period. In addition, we show that both tax-motivated trading and noise trading play a role in the pattern of ETF overreaction and reversal.

MARKET OVERREACTION SAHAM LQ-45 TERHADAP PENGUMUMAN ASIAN GAMES KE-18

Sports events are now a big concern for management and sports tourism and have become a big business opportunity that has an impact on the economy, especially for countries that host the event. The Asian Games is one of the biggest sports events in Asia that are held every four years. Indonesia is the country chosen to host the 18th Asian Games which was announced on July 25, 2014. The purpose of this study is to analyze LQ-45 stock whether after Indonesia was announced to host the 18th Asian Games there was a market overreaction and was followed by the emergence of price reversals. The final sample of the study was 32 companies. Results showed the presence of market overreaction symptoms in the winner and loser portfolios in the period after the announcement. There has been a market overreaction in the winner and loser portfolios due to the announcement of Indonesia's determination to host the 18th Asian Games. Price reversal occurs in loser portfolios and does not occur in portfolio winners due to the announcement of Indonesia's determination to host the 18th Asian Games.