scholarly journals Development of a prognostic prediction model to estimate the risk of multiple chronic diseases

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason E. Black ◽  
Jacqueline K. Kueper ◽  
Amanda L. Terry ◽  
Daniel J. Lizotte
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Dependence Function ◽  
Surveillance Network ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Frank Copula ◽  
Prognostic Prediction ◽  
Primary Care Practitioners ◽  
Multiple Chronic Diseases

IntroductionThe ability to estimate risk of multimorbidity will provide valuable information to patients and primary care practitioners in their preventative efforts. Current methods for prognostic prediction modelling are insufficient for the estimation of risk for multiple outcomes, as they do not properly capture the dependence that exists between outcomes. ObjectivesWe developed a multivariate prognostic prediction model for the 5-year risk of diabetes, hypertension, and osteoarthritis that quantifies and accounts for the dependence between each disease using a copula-based model. MethodsWe used data from the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN) from 2009 onwards, a collection of electronic medical records submitted by participating primary care practitioners across Canada. We identified patients 18 years and older without all three outcome diseases and observed any incident diabetes, osteoarthritis, or hypertension within 5-years, resulting in a large retrospective cohort for model development and internal validation (n=425228). First, we quantified the dependence between outcomes using unadjusted and adjusted ϕ coefficients. We then estimated a copula-based model to quantify the non-linear dependence between outcomes that can be used to derive risk estimates for each outcome, accounting for the observed dependence. Copula-based models are defined by univariate models for each outcome and a dependence function, specified by the parameter θ. Logistic regression was used for the univariate models and the Frank copula was selected as the dependence function. ResultsAll outcome pairs demonstrated statistically significant dependence that was reduced after adjusting for covariates. The copula-based model yielded statistically significant θ parameters in agreement with the adjusted and unadjusted ϕ coefficients. Our copula-based model can effectively be used to estimate trivariate probabilities. DiscussionQuantitative estimates of multimorbidity risk inform discussions between patients and their primary care practitioners around prevention in an effort to reduce the incidence of multimorbidity.

scholarly journals Dynamic prediction of childhood high blood pressure in a population-based birth cohort: a model development study

BMJ Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. e023912 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marleen Hamoen ◽  
Yvonne Vergouwe ◽  
Alet H Wijga ◽  
Martijn W Heymans ◽  
Vincent W V Jaddoe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
High Blood Pressure ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Population Based ◽  
The Body ◽  
Dynamic Prediction ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Primordial Prevention

ObjectivesTo develop a dynamic prediction model for high blood pressure at the age of 9–10 years that could be applied at any age between birth and the age of 6 years in community-based child healthcare.Design, setting and participantsData were used from 5359 children in a population-based prospective cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.Outcome measureHigh blood pressure was defined as systolic and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥95th percentile for gender, age and height. Using multivariable pooled logistic regression, the predictive value of characteristics at birth, and of longitudinal information on the body mass index (BMI) of the child until the age of 6 years, was assessed. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping.Results227 children (4.2%) had high blood pressure at the age of 9–10 years. Final predictors were maternal hypertensive disease during pregnancy, maternal educational level, maternal prepregnancy BMI, child ethnicity, birth weight SD score (SDS) and the most recent BMI SDS. After internal validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.65 (prediction at age 3 years) to 0.73 (prediction at age 5–6 years).ConclusionsThis prediction model may help to monitor the risk of developing high blood pressure in childhood which may allow for early targeted primordial prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Evidence-Based Treatment for the Eating Disorders

2010 ◽  
pp. 451-451
Author(s):  
Phillipa J. Hay ◽  
Angélica de M. Claudino
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Eating Disorders ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Good Evidence ◽  
Distinct Advantage ◽  
Specialist Care ◽  
Feeding And Eating Disorders ◽  
Online Therapies ◽  
Primary Care Practitioners

This chapter comprises a focused review of the best available evidence for psychological and pharmacological treatments of choice for anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and other specified and unspecified feeding and eating disorders (OSFED and UFED), discusses the role of primary care and online therapies, and presents treatment algorithms. In AN, although there is consensus on the need for specialist care that includes nutritional rehabilitation in addition to psychological therapy, no single approach has yet been found to offer a distinct advantage. In contrast, manualized cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) for BN has attained “first-line” treatment status with a stronger evidence base than other psychotherapies. Similarly, CBT has a good evidence base in treatment of BED and for BN, and BED has been successfully adapted into less intensive and non-specialist forms. Behavioral and pharmacological weight loss management in treatment of co-morbid obesity/overweight and BED may be helpful in the short term, but long-term maintenance of effects is unclear. Primary care practitioners are in a key role, both with regard to providing care and with coordination and initiation of specialist care. There is an emerging evidence base for online therapies in BN and BED where access to care is delayed or problematic.

Evidence-Based Treatment for the Eating Disorders

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillipa J. Hay ◽  
Angélica de M. Claudino
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Eating Disorders ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Good Evidence ◽  
Distinct Advantage ◽  
Specialist Care ◽  
Feeding And Eating Disorders ◽  
Online Therapies ◽  
Primary Care Practitioners

This chapter comprises a focused review of the best available evidence for psychological and pharmacological treatments of choice for anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and other specified and unspecified feeding and eating disorders (OSFED and UFED), discusses the role of primary care and online therapies, and presents treatment algorithms. In AN, although there is consensus on the need for specialist care that includes nutritional rehabilitation in addition to psychological therapy, no single approach has yet been found to offer a distinct advantage. In contrast, manualized cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) for BN has attained “first-line” treatment status with a stronger evidence base than other psychotherapies. Similarly, CBT has a good evidence base in treatment of BED and for BN, and BED has been successfully adapted into less intensive and non-specialist forms. Behavioral and pharmacological weight loss management in treatment of co-morbid obesity/overweight and BED may be helpful in the short term, but long-term maintenance of effects is unclear. Primary care practitioners are in a key role, both with regard to providing care and with coordination and initiation of specialist care. There is an emerging evidence base for online therapies in BN and BED where access to care is delayed or problematic.

scholarly journals Knowledge, attitude and practice of evidence-based medicine among primary care practitioners in Malaysia: a cross-sectional study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. e044372
Author(s):  
Mat Nawi Zanaridah ◽  
Mohd Noor Norhayati ◽  
Zakaria Rosnani
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Evidence Based Medicine ◽  
Primary Care Physicians ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Primary Care Practitioner ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Primary Care Practitioners ◽  
Based Medicine

ObjectivesTo determine the level of knowledge and practice of evidence-based medicine (EBM) and the attitudes towards it and to identify the factors associated with its practice among primary care practitioners in Selangor, Malaysia.SettingThis cross-sectional study was conducted in randomly selected health clinics in Selangor. Data were collected from primary care physicians using self-administered questionnaires on knowledge, practice and attitudes regarding EBM.ParticipantsThe study included 225 respondents working in either government or private clinics. It excluded house officers and those working in public and private universities or who were retired from practice.ResultsA total of 32.9% had a high level of EBM knowledge, 12% had a positive attitude towards EBM and 0.4% had a good level of its practice. The factors significantly associated with EBM practice were ethnicity, attitude, length of work experience as a primary care practitioner and quick access to online reference applications on mobile phones.ConclusionsAlthough many physicians have suboptimal knowledge of EBM and low levels of practising it, majority of them have a neutral attitude towards EBM practice. Extensive experience as a primary care practitioner, quick access to online references on a mobile phone and good attitude towards EBM were associated with its practice.

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