Vulnerability and Repeat Victimisation in a Digital World: A Study of Computer Misuse and Fraud Reported in Wales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Sara G. Correia
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Generalised Linear Models ◽  
Repeat Victimisation ◽  
Digital World ◽  
Socially Constructed ◽  
Qualitative Thematic Analysis ◽  
Computer Misuse ◽  
Victim Response ◽  
Victim Vulnerability ◽  
Crime Reports

While the estimated volume and cost of fraud and computer misuse (F&CM) is astoundingly high, much remains unknown about patterns of victimisation, especially in relation to repeat, ‘chronic’ and/or ‘vulnerable’ victims. These ‘unknowns’ have both theoretical and practical implications. Theoretically, understandings of repeat victimisation (RV) and vulnerability remain under-developed and under-studied, particularly with respect to F&CM victims. In practice, the ways in which victim vulnerability is defined and assessed have a direct impact on what response victims of F&CM get from the Criminal Justice System. Too often, however, such policies appear to reproduce idealised notions of ‘the victim’ or assumptions of what kinds of victims and vulnerability ought to be recognised – rather than being driven by evidence.This work is a study of F&CM victimisation. It draws on a sample of crime reports (n = 17,049), made within Wales to the UK’s National Fraud and Cybercrime Reporting Centre Action Fraud, between October 1st 2014 and September 30th 2016. A mixed-methods approach is used, encompassing descriptive and bivariate statistics, generalised linear models, deterministic and probabilistic data linkage, as well as qualitative thematic analysis. Throughout, the socially constructed nature of crime categories and the concepts of ‘the victim’ and vulnerability are recognised, while remaining committed to empirically grounded discussion of findings and (where applicable) the replicability of the analysis.The analysis in this thesis highlights flaws in the reporting system that negatively impact on analysis and police response. These include data quality issues and the lack of a robust system to identify vulnerable and repeat victims. It also demonstrates the unsustainability of an online/offline distinction with respect to recorded F&CM crimes, identifies patterns of RV and their implications for crime prevention. Finally, this thesis advances an original framework for understanding vulnerability in the context of F&CM victimisation and better target a victim response.

Nonnull asymptotic distributions of three classic criteria in generalised linear models

Biometrika ◽  
1994 ◽  
Vol 81 (4) ◽  
pp. 709-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
GAUSS M. CORDEIRO ◽  
DENISE A. BOTTER ◽  
SILVIA L. DE PAULA FERRARI
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Asymptotic Distributions ◽  
Generalised Linear Models

Second order asymptotics for score tests in generalised linear models

Biometrika ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 82 (2) ◽  
pp. 426-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANCISCO CRIBARI-NETO ◽  
SILVIA L. P. FERRARI
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Generalised Linear Models ◽  
Score Tests ◽  
Second Order Asymptotics

Intensification of future low-flow events in relation to projected changes in large-scale climate drivers due to climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pallavi Goswami ◽  
Arpita Mondal ◽  
Christoph Rüdiger ◽  
Tim J. Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Generalised Linear Models ◽  
Southeast Australia ◽  
The Future

<p>Large-scale climate processes such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) influence the hydro-climatology of Southeast Australia (SEA). In the present study, we show that low-flow events in many catchments in SEA are significantly influenced by variability in these climate drivers. Extreme value distributions and Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) are used here to model low-flow characteristics such as intensity, duration and frequency with respect to these climate drivers. Further, we study how the future projections of ENSO, IOD and SAM are likely to evolve under climate change by examining the projected values of their representative indices and how they will impact low-flow events in the region. It is found that the future dry phases of these climate drivers are likely to be more dry than those in the historic period. This in turn is expected to lead to intensification of low-flow events in the future, resulting in lower availability of fresh water during occurrences of the dry phases of these climate drivers. Thus, climate change in the future is expected to significantly influence future low-flow events in the region thereby making it even more crucial for water managers to adequately manage and ensure water availability.</p><p><br>Keywords: low-flows, ENSO, IOD, SAM, Extreme Value Theory, Generalised Linear Models, Southeast Australia, CMIP5, RCP8.5.</p>

Integral projection models

2021 ◽  
pp. 181-196
Author(s):  
Edgar J. González ◽  
Dylan Z. Childs ◽  
Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio ◽  
Roberto Salguero-Gómez
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Matrix Population Models ◽  
Generalised Linear Models ◽  
Integral Projection Models ◽  
Integral Projection ◽  
Over Time

Integral projection models (IPMs) allow projecting the behaviour of a population over time using information on the vital processes of individuals, their state, and that of the environment they inhabit. As with matrix population models (MPMs), time is treated as a discrete variable, but in IPMs, state and environmental variables are continuous and are related to the vital rates via generalised linear models. Vital rates in turn integrate into the population dynamics in a mechanistic way. This chapter provides a brief description of the logic behind IPMs and their construction, and, because they share many of the analyses developed for MPMs, it only emphasises how perturbation analyses can be performed with respect to different model elements. The chapter exemplifies the construction of a simple and a more complex IPM structure with an animal and a plant case study, respectively. Finally, inverse modelling in IPMs is presented, a method that allows population projection when some vital rates are not observed.

scholarly journals Lifetime, 5-year and past-year prevalence of homelessness in Europe: a cross-national survey in eight European nations

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. e033237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Owen Taylor ◽  
Sandrine Loubiere ◽  
Aurelie Tinland ◽  
Maria Vargas-Moniz ◽  
Freek Spinnewijn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Service Use ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Response Rates ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Generalised Linear Models ◽  
The Past ◽  
History Of ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Difference Test

ObjectivesTo examine the lifetime, 5-year and past-year prevalence of homelessness among European citizens in eight European nations.DesignA nationally representative telephone survey using trained bilingual interviewers and computer-assisted telephone interview software.SettingThe study was conducted in France, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.ParticipantsEuropean adult citizens, selected from opt-in panels from March to December 2017. Total desired sample size was 5600, with 700 per country. Expected response rates of approximately 30% led to initial sample sizes of 2500 per country.Main outcome measuresHistory of homelessness was assessed for lifetime, past 5 years and past year. Sociodemographic data were collected to assess correlates of homelessness prevalence using generalised linear models for clustered and weighted samples.ResultsResponse rates ranged from 30.4% to 33.5% (n=5631). Homelessness prevalence was 4.96% for lifetime (95% CI 4.39% to 5.59%), 1.92% in the past 5 years (95% CI 1.57% to 2.33%) and 0.71% for the past year (95% CI 0.51% to 0.98%) and varied significantly between countries (pairwise comparison difference test, p<0.0001). Time spent homeless ranged between less than a week (21%) and more than a year (18%), with high contrasts between countries (p<0.0001). Male gender, age 45–54, lower secondary education, single status, unemployment and an urban environment were all independently strongly associated with lifetime homelessness (all OR >1.5).ConclusionsThe prevalence of homelessness among the surveyed nations is significantly higher than might be expected from point-in-time and homeless service use statistics. There was substantial variation in estimated prevalence across the eight nations. Coupled with the well-established health impacts of homelessness, medical professionals need to be aware of the increased health risks of those with experience of homelessness. These findings support policies aiming to improve health services for people exposed to homelessness.

Redefining the deviance objective for generalised linear models

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 491-509
Author(s):  
A. C. Lovick ◽  
P. K. W. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Patent Application ◽  
Generalised Linear Models ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Efficient Calculation ◽  
Unseen Data ◽  
Data Points ◽  
New Material ◽  
Price Comparison Sites ◽  
Generalised Linear Modelling

AbstractThis paper defines the ‘Case Deleted’ Deviance - a new objective function for evaluating Generalised Linear Models, and applies this to a number of practical examples in the pricing of general insurance. The paper details practical approximations to enable the efficient calculation of the objective, and derives modifications to the standard Generalised Linear Modelling algorithm to allow the derivation of scaled parameters from this measure to reduce potential over fitting to historical data. These scaled parameters improve the predictiveness of the model when applied to previously unseen data points, the most likely being related to future business written. The potential for over fitting has increased due to number of factors now used, particularly in pricing personal lines business and the advent of price comparison sites which has increased the penalties of mis-estimation. New material in this paper has been included in a UK patent application No. 1020091.3.

Trust as a multidimensional phenomenon in LMX relationships

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sari Kristiina Hirvi ◽  
Sanna Laulainen ◽  
Helena Taskinen
Keyword(s):  
Interpersonal Relationships ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Socially Constructed ◽  
Qualitative Thematic Analysis ◽  
Lmx Theory ◽  
Member Exchange ◽  
Collective Phenomenon ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Empirical Material

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to address the construction of trust in leader member exchange (LMX) relationships as a multidimensional phenomenon and identify the importance of emotional and collective factors contributing to this phenomenon.Design/methodology/approachTen health care professionals (five leaders and five members) were interviewed to subject to qualitative thematic analysis.FindingsFour main themes in the data were identified (work roles, collectivity, interaction and participation) and linked to two main elements of LMX trust relations: core and contextual. The results extend understanding of the construction and maintenance of trust in LMX relationships, indicating that it is a more complex and socially constructed phenomenon than previously described.Research limitations/implicationsDespite identified limitations of the study (the small amount of empirical material, interpretive research method and purposive sampling of participants), the findings reveal that constructing trust in LMX relationships is more multidimensional than generally portrayed in traditional LMX theory and its three-stage continuum. This study suggests that a broader perspective should be adopted in LMX research, treating it not only as a collective phenomenon but also considering leaders and members as emotional individuals.Practical implicationsUnderstanding the multidimensional nature of LMX relationships is helpful for developing interpersonal relationships in organizations and leadership practices through recognition of the importance of the transparency, practices and adequacy of mutual interaction. The results presented here may contribute to such understanding and help leaders to relate to members as both subjective individuals and parts of a complex social network. The results may also increase members' awareness of possible ways that they can promote the development of good LMX relationships in organizations.Originality/valueThe novelty of the study relates to the identification of the collective, emotional and multidimensional nature of LMX relationships.

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