scholarly journals Gullies and debris flows analysis: a case study in Sardinia and a rheological modelling approach

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Canu ◽  
G. Lorenzini
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Rheological Modelling ◽  
Modelling Approach

Investigation of a New Approach to Predict Water Quality Extremes with a Case Study of Chemical Determinands in Stream Water

1991 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 25-33
Author(s):  
A. J. Jakeman ◽  
P. G. Whitehead ◽  
A. Robson ◽  
J. A. Taylor ◽  
J. Bai
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Stream Water ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Hybrid Modelling ◽  
Trend Model ◽  
Environmental Extremes ◽  
Modelling Approach

The paper illustrates analysis of the assumptions of the statistical component of a hybrid modelling approach for predicting environmental extremes. This shows how to assess the applicability of the approach to water quality problems. The analysis involves data on stream acidity from the Birkenes catchment in Norway. The modelling approach is hybrid in that it uses: (1) a deterministic or process-based description to simulate (non-stationary) long term trend values of environmental variables, and (2) probability distributions which are superimposed on the trend values to characterise the frequency of shorter term concentrations. This permits assessment of management strategies and of sensitivity to climate variables by adjusting the values of major forcing variables in the trend model. Knowledge of the variability about the trend is provided by: (a) identification of an appropriate parametric form of the probability density function (pdf) of the environmental attribute (e.g. stream acidity variables) whose extremes are of interest, and (b) estimation of pdf parameters using the output of the trend model.

scholarly journals Understanding effect site pharmacology of uprifosbuvir, a HCV nucleoside inhibitor: case study of a multidisciplinary modelling approach in drug development

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul van den Berg ◽  
Wei Gao ◽  
Maurice J. Ahsman ◽  
Leticia Arrington ◽  
Filippos Kesisoglou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drug Development ◽  
Effect Site ◽  
Modelling Approach

Geomorphic characteristics of hillslope and channelized debris flows: A case study in the Shitou area of central Taiwan

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 266-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinn-Chyi Chen ◽  
Ching-Weei Lin ◽  
Lung-Chang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Central Taiwan

scholarly journals Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 279-299
Author(s):  
Christoph Welker ◽  
Thomas Röösli ◽  
David N. Bresch
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Information Service ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. With access to claims, insurers have a long tradition of being knowledge leaders on damages caused by windstorms. However, new opportunities have arisen to better assess the risks of winter windstorms in Europe through the availability of historic footprints provided by the Windstorm Information Service (Copernicus WISC). In this study, we compare how modelling of building damages complements claims-based risk assessment. We describe and use two windstorm risk models: an insurer's proprietary model and the open source CLIMADA platform. Both use the historic WISC dataset and a purposefully built, probabilistic hazard event set of winter windstorms across Europe to model building damages in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. These approaches project a considerably lower estimate for the annual average damage (CHF 1.4 million), compared to claims (CHF 2.3 million), which originates mainly from a different assessment of the return period of the most damaging historic event Lothar–Martin. Additionally, the probabilistic modelling approach allows assessment of rare events, such as a 250-year-return-period windstorm causing CHF 75 million in damages, including an evaluation of the uncertainties. Our study emphasizes the importance of complementing a claims-based perspective with a probabilistic risk modelling approach to better understand windstorm risks. The presented open-source model provides a straightforward entry point for small insurance companies.

scholarly journals Application of data-based mechanistic modelling for flood forecasting at multiple locations in the Eden catchment in the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales)

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Leedal ◽  
A. H. Weerts ◽  
P. J. Smith ◽  
K. J. Beven
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
Open Shell ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Mechanistic Modelling ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. The Delft Flood Early Warning System provides a versatile framework for real-time flood forecasting. The UK Environment Agency has adopted the Delft framework to deliver its National Flood Forecasting System. The Delft system incorporates new flood forecasting models very easily using an "open shell" framework. This paper describes how we added the data-based mechanistic modelling approach to the model inventory and presents a case study for the Eden catchment (Cumbria, UK).

Relation between basin morphometric features and dynamic characteristics of debris flows – a case study in Siberia, Russia

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 618-630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Artem A. Rybchenko ◽  
Alena V. Kadetova ◽  
Elena A. Kozireva
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Characteristics ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Morphometric Features

A probabilistic model for assessing debris flow propagation at regional scale: a case study in Campania region, Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Crescenzo ◽  
Gaetano Pecoraro ◽  
Michele Calvello ◽  
Richard Guthrie
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Erosion And Deposition ◽  
Campania Region ◽  
Source Areas ◽  
Model Input ◽  
Travel Path ◽  
Debris Avalanches ◽  
Modelling Approach

<p>Debris flows and debris avalanches are rapid to extremely rapid landslides that tend to travel considerable distances from their source areas. Interaction between debris flows and elements at risk along their travel path may result in potentially significant destructive consequences. One of the critical challenges to overcome with respect to debris flow risk is, therefore, the credible prediction of their size, travel path, runout distance, and depths of erosion and deposition. To these purposes, at slope or catchment scale, sophisticated physically-based models, appropriately considering several factors and phenomena controlling the slope failure mechanisms, may be used. These models, however, are computationally costly and time consuming, and that significantly hinders their applicability at regional scale. Indeed, at regional scale, debris flows hazard assessment is usually carried out by means of qualitative approaches relying on field surveys, geomorphological knowledge, geometric features, and expert judgement.</p><p>In this study, a quantitative modelling approach based on cellular automata methods, wherein individual cells move across a digital elevation model (DEM) landscape following behavioral rules defined probabilistically, is proposed and tested. The adopted model, called LABS, is able to estimate erosion and deposition soil volumes along a debris flow path by deploying at the source areas autonomous subroutines, called agents, over a 5 m spatial resolution DEM, which provides the basic information to each agent in each time-step. Rules for scour and deposition are based on mass balance considerations and independent probability distributions defined as a function of slope DEM-derived values and a series of model input parameters. The probabilistic rules defined in the model are based on data gathered for debris flows and debris avalanches that mainly occurred in western Canada. This study mainly addresses the applicability and the reliability of this modelling approach to areas in southern Italy, in Campania region, historically affected by debris flows in pyroclastic soils. To this aim, information on inventoried debris flows is used in different study areas to evaluate the effect on the predictions of the model input parameter values, as well as of different native DEM resolutions.</p>

Modelling of debris flows and flash floods propagation: a case study from Italian Alps

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Leonardo Cascini ◽  
Sabatino Cuomo ◽  
Manuel Pastor ◽  
Ilaria Rendina
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Italian Alps

Enterprise Modelling in Support of Organisation Design and Change

2010 ◽  
pp. 352-378
Author(s):  
Joseph Ajaefobi ◽  
Aysin Rahimifard ◽  
Richard Weston
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
Market Place ◽  
Manufacturing Enterprises ◽  
Enterprise Modelling ◽  
Requirements Change ◽  
Study Application ◽  
Modelling Approach

Enterprises (business organisations) are increasingly operating under uncertain conditions arising from: governments that introduce new regulations; a market place which is shaped by ongoing change in customer requirements; change in capital markets that orient overall market directions; an advancing base of technology; and increasing competition which can arise from a growing number of sources (Monfared, 2000). Consequently, organisations are expected to change rapidly in response to emerging requirements. Classical theories and more recently ‘method-based’ organisation (re)design and change approaches have been proposed and tried with varying degrees of successes. This chapter contribution discusses the role of enterprise and simulation modelling in support of organisation (re)design and change. The capabilities and constraints of some widely acknowledged public domain enterprise modelling frameworks and methods are reviewed. A modelling approach which integrates the use of enterprise modelling (EM), causal loop modelling (CLM), and simulation modelling (SM) is described. The approach enables the generation of coherent and semantically rich models of organisations. The integrated modelling approach has been applied and tested in a number of manufacturing enterprises (MEs) and one case study application is described.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document